re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE

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LSU put out a study last year basically saying that more sediment is lost to coastal erosion than what is being pumped down the Miss. The reason is all of the various water control structures along the Tennessee and Ohio rivers that keep all of that silt.

If you took those down you would have a start.

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Well sure.

Politically, I don't see any control structures / levees coming down anytime in our lifetimes. So, we need to work around that.

Million dollar a mile to transport sediment via pipeline

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Anyone else having trouble accessing the BR gage website?

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So it begins...

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ALL STAGE FORECASTS INCLUDE 48 HOURS OF FUTURE RAINFALL. END LMRFC

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So unless it stops raining entirely, the forecast crest will keep going up.

Looks like they held the forecast from yesterday. Steady.

About sediment deposits at ORCS. The Corps did a study a few years ago.

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As operated since the early 1990s, sediment diversion at the ORCC probably is less efficient than required to maintain channel stability in the Mississippi River downstream of the ORCC.

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Translated: The new hydroelectric facility (opened in 90) is messing things up. We will have to change its operations if we are going to fix this.

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While there is clear evidence of significant channel aggradation in the vicinity of the ORCC, the impacts of ORCC operations on regional sedimentation remain uncertain.

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Translated: There is a real problem here, and we have no idea how bad it is.

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Operational alternatives were analyzed that potentially could increase the long-term sediment diversion efficiency at the ORCC.

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Translated: Whatever we do, it is going to take a while.

Here's the link. LINK

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Morganza Spillway was only used 1 out of these 5 events. Hell 73 isn't in top 10 crests. So do they really need to open it? 

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Due to sediment buildup north of the ORCS over the years, the answer your question is unknown. No one knows the exact changes to the riverbed along that stretch of the river. Because of those changes, trying to predict whether or not Morganza will be opened based off of previous river crest heights becomes almost useless. The fact that 1973 wasn't even a top 6 crest tells you all you need to know. Every event is different which shows the flexibility in protocol for opening Morganza.

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How wet of a spring are they predicting in the midwest?

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Somewhere between above normal, average, and below normal over the Ohio valley.

Long term modeling isn't great, and currently all over the fricking place. It's going to be taking it week by week.

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Will the river have enough time to drop down b4 another pulse comes?

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The next 10 days doesn't look too bad.



On average an inch or two.



Notice how the heaviest rains follow along the white section. That's generally going to be the storm tracks. Assuming this is how it plays, it should help our cause going later in the month.

The steering earlier in the month brought storms farther north cutting from TX/Ok up toward the lakes generally. Brought a lot of moisture north in doing so. Now, it looks like it'll keep it bottled up in the south.

The other big concern is the snow melt over the Missouri. Fortunately, early March is looking to be pretty cold.



Sun angle will start the melting regardless but cold is obviously better than not. Climate models want to really warm up that way during April. Suggests the water is going to stay high in the river for quite a while. Just hope we don't get another run of heavy rain over the Ohio valley while we're at it.

Bump to let everyone know the forecast river stages have updated this morning and they're still the same as yesterday. No bump up or down today.