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Message
Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:41 pm
UPDATE
Old
Spillway opening has been delayed again until June 9th since the forecast crest has been pushed back again. ACE doesn't want to open it prematurely and send more water down the floodway than needed.
Forecast bumped up to 44.6' from 44.5'.
Morganza Spillway to open for only the 3rd time in history.
Discussion taking place in this thread.
US Army Corps of Engineers Morganza Spillway 2011 Discharge Info for Comparison
2019 Flood Inundation Prediction with by June 26, 2019 (Total Depth, NOT In Addition To What's Already Present)
quote:
MORGANZA, La. (WAFB) - A spokesperson for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says the Morganza Spillway will not open Sunday. The date of the opening was pushed back to Sunday, June 9. On Wednesday, officials said they would only release 20% of what they originally planned. On Thursday, a spokesperson for USACE announced they would not be opening the spillway on Sunday. No new date has been set. More details still to come.
Old
Spillway opening has been delayed again until June 9th since the forecast crest has been pushed back again. ACE doesn't want to open it prematurely and send more water down the floodway than needed.
Forecast bumped up to 44.6' from 44.5'.
Morganza Spillway to open for only the 3rd time in history.
Discussion taking place in this thread.
US Army Corps of Engineers Morganza Spillway 2011 Discharge Info for Comparison
2019 Flood Inundation Prediction with by June 26, 2019 (Total Depth, NOT In Addition To What's Already Present)
This post was edited on 6/6/19 at 2:09 pm
88
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:41 pm to TDsngumbo
My hood will be safe is all I know
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:47 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Where would all that water spread out to?
my guess would be the quad
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:49 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
How much would it spread out before shoring up the levee and stopping the flow? Surely the flow would be continuous for a good 24 hours at least before the ACE is able to put a temporary stop to it. That's a tremendous amount of water flowing into the city and points southward.
Keep in mind that the Corps would never let it get above a certain level without opening up ORCS and Morganza. Also Bonnet Carre could be opened up to relieve head pressure downstream.
The bigger concern is Old River breaking either at the structure itself or along the levee before or after and carving a new path to the Atchafalaya.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:50 pm to TDsngumbo
I see a crest of 42.7' on March 7th, isn't that kind of early to crest? There is still a lot of snow melt to take place over the next couple of weeks as its still coming down.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:50 pm to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
It will be an improvement to BR
Enemas usually are
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:52 pm to NYNolaguy1
It got up to 45.01' in 2011. They had the Morganza and Bonnet Carre open at that time.
But you're right - the Old River Control Structure moved a bit in 2011 and the biggest fear regarding the river has always been its failure. There would literally be nothing stopping it from carving a new path and that would be on the scale of 25 9/11's with the economic impact of losing the BR and NOLA ports.
But you're right - the Old River Control Structure moved a bit in 2011 and the biggest fear regarding the river has always been its failure. There would literally be nothing stopping it from carving a new path and that would be on the scale of 25 9/11's with the economic impact of losing the BR and NOLA ports.
This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:52 pm to TDsngumbo
Most likelihood is that it floods to highland road with about 1-2 ft of water
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:53 pm to TDsngumbo
They couldn't plug the 17th street canal, no way they could plug the river pouring through. Probably flood all the way to Lake Maurepas if east bank broke.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:54 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
How much would it spread out before shoring up the levee and stopping the flow?
A long time.
If the levee were to break in BR the flow would massively erode the remaining levee in both directions, and it probably wouldn't be able to be stopped until the flow subsided.
Depending on where this break occurs of course, it would fill up the Brightside/Gardere/Bluebonnet areas south of Highland Road, hit Bayou Manchac, fill up Spanish Lake, and then flow toward the Amite river flooding Ascension.
That's my best guess.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:54 pm to TDsngumbo
I'm no expert but I've driven around BR enough to figure basically everything south of highland road would be flooded as god originally intended. You see highland road is called that because it is on highland, a natural bluff. The water would then probably flow to old bayou manchac, spanish lake area, then on to amite river/lake maurepa area,and then onto lake Pontchartrain.
ETA: LSUBoo, ya beat me to it.
ETA: LSUBoo, ya beat me to it.
This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:54 pm to TDsngumbo
It would greatly depend on the part of Baton Rouge.
If it broke at downtown, north Baton Rouge would have some issues but it’s still gonna flow towards the southern part.
If it broke more around gardere, all of that area and all of those neighborhoods on Nicholson and Burbank would be fricked
If it broke at downtown, north Baton Rouge would have some issues but it’s still gonna flow towards the southern part.
If it broke more around gardere, all of that area and all of those neighborhoods on Nicholson and Burbank would be fricked
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:56 pm to TDsngumbo
Tree fiddy feet of water in the streets of Evangeline.
Maybe a mass exodus of NOLA refugees back from BR to NOLA?
Maybe a mass exodus of NOLA refugees back from BR to NOLA?
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:56 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:56 pm to TDsngumbo
Any word on Morganza? Bonne Carre is set to open again.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:57 pm to TDsngumbo
If the old river structure failed and the Mississippi moved to the Atchafalaya, we wouldn't lose the ports in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, but would lose ALL DRINKING WATER FOR BOTH CITIES FOREVER !!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 2/22/19 at 1:59 pm to 777Tiger
In theory, the quad would be safe, AND we would probably get that new PMAC everyone has been wanting
Posted on 2/22/19 at 2:00 pm to Mudminnow
They're not opening the Morganza as of yet. I'd imagine if the there's another rain event up north like the one currently happening the levels may go high enough for those discussions to start happening.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 2:01 pm to Picayuner
Baton Rouge does Not get its drinking water from the Mississippi
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