re: Midway: if we lose our carriers and the Japs lose just one,

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Do you believe FDR could have slow played Japan as we did to a certain extent if Japan had done as you surmised and took Hawaii and was raiding up and down the West Ciast?

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Well, I’m not sure we’d lose Hawaii. It all depends on if we could maintain some semblance of a supply route open. The thing about Hawaii is that even had we lost at Midway, Hawaii and it’s massive naval and air bases was still a formidable force capable of housing enough of a force to make it a highly risky endeavor for Japan to try and operate its fleet close to Hawaii for any extended amount of time. Couple that with American sub forces operating from the west coast, not to mention the extremely long supply line Japan would have to maintain to be able to operate a fleet size force in the eastern Pacific between the US mainland and Hawaii, it’s not certain they would even try to take Hawaii.

As for the West Coast, a combination of extreme distance from home bases and risk of American subs coupled with land based American aircraft would make anything more than hit & run attacks highly dangerous for the Japanese.

Remember, Japan’s one ace in the hole when it came to the Pacific war was their fleet. As long as they had it and it was a potent force, Japan saw themselves as having a chance. Lose the fleet though and the war was lost. Thus, even in the early phases of the war in 1941-42, the safety of their fleet was paramount to them. They only attempted operations where they though there was little chance to lose their fleet. Yes, late in the war they squandered what was left of their fleet. But that was only after they were desperate and realized they had no other option than risk the destruction of what was left of their fleet. But before that, when Japan still thought they could win, they made sure to only put their fleet in situations where they had the clear advantage, or so they thought.

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Repeating: We were never going to lose to Japan.

Possibly the delay might have pushed the ability to use of the Atomic weapons back a bit but mid ‘46 at worst.

We were muy fricking serious.

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Understood, but in June if 1942 did we know we’d have atomic bombs in 1945? I don’t think so.

Just thinking about the ripple affect of a huge loss at Midway and what may have changed before we finally hammered Japan.

I know they could not beat us.

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We had combat proven nuclear weapons by Aug45.

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Correct.

We didn’t have another one “on the shelf” after the Nagasaki bum.

It would have been a while for the next one(s), months not years but probably into ‘46.

Japan was still short ore and oil. Their play was for quick victory and hoo is sued for peace.

Japan could not replenish planes and ship like the US. US victory at midway allowed Europe first doctrine to proceed. A loss would likely have delayed D-day another year.

The US built 119 aircraft carriers of all types (fleet, escort, etc) during WW2. The Japs had 25 and no ability to produce the aircraft and pilots needed to man them, or even provide them with the oil to sail.

Was losing Midway going to impact that production? No.

Was losing Midway going to impact sub interdiction of oil and strategic supplies from the Japanese occupied colonies? No.

Was losing Midway going to prevent us from moving ahead with our atomic program? No.

Midway served notice that the sleeping giant was awake and incredibly pissed. It was one of the greatest naval victories of all time and a credit to our brave navy. It also shortened arguably the war in the pacific and avoided diversion of strategic resources from the European theater.

It did not change the ultimate outcome of WW2 in the pacific. The Japanese were F'd the moment they ordered Yamamoto to "climb Mt Niitaka".

Japan’s blunder was not landing 20,000 troops on Oahu on Dec 8.

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But how fast can we build back

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Fast as frick. Our industrial strength and capabilities are what won the war for the allies.

The fact that we were able to project our power on both sides of the world and keep our allies in the fight with our equipment while never really hurting for equipment ourselves is probably the greatest feat in military history.

It is just unheard of.

Great thread and responses, well done everyone.

Newt Gingrich wrote an alternate history book where the Japanese did run wild for a time and took Oahu..but they were overextended and got crushed by the counterattack launched by a massive US fleet launched a couple of years later.

Hitler screwed the pooch on the entire Eastern Front. Terribly overextended splitting Army Group South into Army Group A and B, sending A south into the Caucasus IMO set the stage for the German defeat leaving inferior Italian and Rumanian forces holding front along the Don River.

They were set upon and overrun by a Soviet offensive and Hitler would not allow the trapped Sixth Army to withdraw from Stalingrad, sealing their fate. The idiot almost lost Army Group A for the same reason.

They did not need Stalingrad, they could have bypassed and sealed it off to begin with.