- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Mexico Rain Watch 94L and What About Grace?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:38 am to michael corleone
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:38 am to michael corleone
quote:Yeah there's no doubt the western gulf is ripe for development.. but a lot of pieces have to fall into place first just to get that far.
BOC is relatively shallow and hot. No upwelling issues to impact development. Also, typical flow is toward the north, over warmer water (loop current). Audrey/Lillie/Opal rapid development can easily occur if sheer is low and upper level venting is in place. Def something to watch if any spin starts and sheer is low.
1
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:02 am to baytiger
So this is all predicted from a stalled front?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:31 am to wal marks
quote:
So this is all predicted from a stalled front?
Not really a stalled front.. but some remnant vorticity from a front that's currently over central texas
Posted on 9/10/15 at 7:29 am to baytiger
You guys even have Bob Breck stirred up now 
Posted on 9/10/15 at 12:57 pm to iron banks
Any updates?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 1:19 pm to fishfighter
quote:
Any updates?
the vort max that spun up into the storm barely makes it into the gulf in the 00Z ECMWF. It kind of develops only to duck back into the Mexico coast before becoming anything.
the 12z ECMWF is running right now though so I'm excited to see if it keeps that solution.
as for the 12z GFS, it still has absolutely nothing. which is kind of interesting because instead of keeping the vort max inland, it pushes it into the gulf where it just mixes out.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 1:27 pm to baytiger
Posted on 9/10/15 at 1:28 pm to baytiger
All these words mean nothing to me without models. Let's see some pictures.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 1:41 pm to tigersownall
quote:
All these words mean nothing to me without models. Let's see some pictures.
better?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:35 pm to tigersownall
quote:there's nothing to show. 12Z ECMWF is a solid nothing again. This is why I said yesterday that I don't like to discuss these things until they're actually trying to form... too often they're just model fantasies.
All these words mean nothing to me without models. Let's see some pictures.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:38 pm to Chad504boy
what's a grace?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:40 pm to baytiger
Does this have to do with all of this bad weather popping up all of a sudden? Its poppin off from the gulf of Mexico through south Texas and south Louisiana.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:43 pm to baytiger
quote:
what's a grace?
is that kinda like when you're in NBR and get shot at and the bullet just barely misses you but scratches the skin?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:44 pm to TDsngumbo
what fricking storm is this no good of a thread following out there? no pics, plots, models, spaghettis or shits is being provided. i'm outtie.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:05 pm to Chad504boy
FU hurricanes
Stay Away from the Pan Handle next week.
Stay Away from the Pan Handle next week.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:10 pm to stlslick
The real question here is is Punta Cana safe?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 4:45 pm to baytiger
quote:
there's nothing to show. 12Z ECMWF is a solid nothing again.
There haven't really been any huge shifts in the models over the last 24hrs but obviously the changes have been enough for the Euro to trend hard to the weak/no system camp.
quote:
This is why I said yesterday that I don't like to discuss these things until they're actually trying to form... too often they're just model fantasies.
Yeah, it has been interesting more so from a theoretical standpoint watching the system evolve on the different model runs. We really won't know anything until convection starts firing down there and everyone knows who tricky BoC systems can be.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 5:28 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
The real question here is is Punta Cana safe?
But when will be the appropriate time for the beanie weenie run?
Posted on 9/11/15 at 1:47 pm to fatboydave
Any updates?
Page 6 of 7
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News