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Meteorologists: Question about Sunday
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:28 pm
What is the consensus?
Two days ago, regarding Mississippi, they were saying the main threat was I20 and south of it, but now the SPC has issued a moderate risk for the majority of the state?
Also, what are the names of the models the SPC uses for severe weather prediction, e.g., the Euro...and?
After taking a couple of "101" meteorology classes in college, I realize this last question may not have a clear answer, but are any of the models considered more "solid" in their ability to predict man eating tornado outbreaks?
Meaning, if you were going to tally up which model accurately predicted an outbreak the earliest ahead of time (with the main criteria being verified, violent tornados dropping to the ground), is there a clear winner, or would it be as clear as mud?
Two days ago, regarding Mississippi, they were saying the main threat was I20 and south of it, but now the SPC has issued a moderate risk for the majority of the state?
Also, what are the names of the models the SPC uses for severe weather prediction, e.g., the Euro...and?
After taking a couple of "101" meteorology classes in college, I realize this last question may not have a clear answer, but are any of the models considered more "solid" in their ability to predict man eating tornado outbreaks?
Meaning, if you were going to tally up which model accurately predicted an outbreak the earliest ahead of time (with the main criteria being verified, violent tornados dropping to the ground), is there a clear winner, or would it be as clear as mud?
4
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:29 pm to Bigbee Hills
Check out RDS's thread on the first page about this Sunday
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:32 pm to Bigbee Hills
Need to hear PJ's opinion on this
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:34 pm to East Coast Band
quote:Ah hell, I call myself looking before I posted.
Check out RDS's thread on the first page about this Sunday
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:37 pm to upgrayedd
Ok. Miss and Bama are gonna get hit hard. Northern LA will get a good dose as well. SLOT of gulf moisture is gonna stream in strong as the low pressure system stays north of the Baton Rouge area. Lots of rain and some will get strong tornados. This could get real ugly.....
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:40 pm to dukke v
quote:
This could get real ugly.....
quote:
dukke v
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:42 pm to dukke v
quote:
Ok. Miss and Bama are gonna get hit hard. Northern LA will get a good dose as well. SLOT of gulf moisture is gonna stream in strong as the low pressure system stays north of the Baton Rouge area. Lots of rain and some will get strong tornados. This could get real ugly.....
frick off, you fricking inbred.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:45 pm to Bigbee Hills
It is still a 3 Day Outlook. While a Moderate risk on a 3 Day is concerning, expecting any certainty as to exact location at this time is asking too much. Suffice it to say that anywhere covered by the Moderate and the Enhanced areas has the potential to see significant severe weather.
There will be a broad area across the Deep South that has the potential to see significant weather. If not tornadoes in your area, a damaging wind event is another possibility, as this sets up to be a Derecho-type system for many areas.
There will be a broad area across the Deep South that has the potential to see significant weather. If not tornadoes in your area, a damaging wind event is another possibility, as this sets up to be a Derecho-type system for many areas.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:47 pm to dukke v
quote:
dukke v
quote:
This could get real ugly.....
Hell yeah!!!
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:48 pm to LegendInMyMind
Since a moderate risk was put out 3 days prior I wouldn’t be surprised in we see a high risk alert come out tonight
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:51 pm to Y.A. Tittle
Got a problem?????? You want to call me an inbred come say it to my face POS.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:52 pm to purple18
quote:
Since a moderate risk was put out 3 days prior I wouldn’t be surprised in we see a high risk alert come out tonight
I don't think we will see a High Risk tonight. If it comes, it will probably be sometime tomorrow. Everything has to come together just right, and all models aren't in consensus just yet. RDS posted to that thought in the other thread.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:16 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:Thanks
LegendInMyMind
quote:Oh there's no doubt about that. Like I said, I know just enough about meteorology through a couple of intro classes in college to know that I don't know shite about it, and that things can and will change to some degree. However in the here and now, the only given that a layman like myself has is the SPC outlooks and summaries, which I pulled up this morning. As of Wednesday morning, forecasters were thinking the i20 and south region was in the crosshairs more than anyone else in the state.
expecting any certainty as to exact location at this time is asking too much.
As of this morning there were articles still touting that scenario; while others all but said that all Mississippians ought to make their funeral arrangements now or they'll face the possibility of having to wait in line. Again, clarification by meteorologists based on the current information is what I seek, not a definitive answer on predicting the future.
It's unfortunate that, because of the affect weather has on every person's every day life, more than any other science meteorology (especially regarding severe weather events) is not immune to the same unfortunate problem that we have nowadays with politics, sports, etc: Having to wade through mounds of bullshite from know-nothing jackasses who are looking for clicks in order to find substance and accuracy.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:20 pm to Bigbee Hills
Our nastiest severe weather days are when the low rolls up through Texas close to Shreveport which is what the models have this one doing.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:21 pm to Bigbee Hills
quote:
As of this morning there were articles still touting that scenario; while others all but said that all Mississippians ought to make their funeral arrangements now or they'll face the possibility of having to wait in line.
You'll do best to disregard the high end and the low end of sensational, media-driven weather coverage. I try to avoid any weather outlet that is solely reliant upon clicks or ratings. Sure, I watch them when things are going on, but they really only have a negative impact in regards to forecasting. The SPC is really all that matters at this time, and a handful of meteorologists who know their stuff.
Local mets are responsible for the safety of those in their viewing area. They will always err on the side of caution, and at times, seem a bit dramatic. However, being heard in today's society requires some of that. Some will disregard the forecasts altogether, others will fret and worry. Local mets have to manage all of those people, for better or worse.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:40 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:And it's unfortunate that 99% of the stuff is in that category.
You'll do best to disregard the high end and the low end of sensational, media-driven weather coverage.
The misrepresentation and hyping up of the actual data and statistical possibilities of a severe weather event, now more than ever, can have a negative affect on an already crumbling economy, e.g., I desperately need to travel to a job Sunday, but I won't if "wE'rE aLl GoNnA dIe," and on the low end it can get you killed, e.g., I know a fella who's certain it's only going to be severe weather from Meridian-south so he's leaving to go across the state to bid a job, but if he's wrong and it winds up being a widespread outbreak, statistically speaking, he has drastically upped his odds of going for a little ride on the vortices express.
When you extrapolate the disinformation and uncertainty like I'm asking about into the general population- and not just about weather- you get a good representation of the state of disarray that society is in nowadays.
quote:Where might one find these meteorologists?
and a handful of meteorologists who know their stuff.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 2:07 pm to dukke v
quote:
Got a problem?????? You want to call me an inbred come say it to my face POS.
Shut up
Posted on 4/10/20 at 2:10 pm to Y.A. Tittle
Good afternoon, Y.A.
How are you?
How are you?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 2:12 pm to Paul Allen
I’m good, Paul. You? 
Posted on 4/10/20 at 3:02 pm to Y.A. Tittle
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