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LSUnurse and other AZ posters, some evidence of a crest in Arizona hospitalizations

Posted on 7/13/20 at 12:27 pm
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69313 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 12:27 pm
quote:

Update on AZ hospitalizations:
Further sign that hospitalizations have begun to crest over past week or so. Below is a graph of daily count of patients hospitalized w/ coronavirus,and to the right the 7day avg of net change in inpatient covid population.







LINK
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
6196 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 12:31 pm to
Looks almost as if.....it runs through a society, peaks and levels off, then drops.

Kinda like how early on N.O. and to lesser extent BR get hit. Now other parts of the state worse off.
Posted by MarcusQuinn
Member since Aug 2005
582 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 12:34 pm to
And New York, Lombardy, New Jersey. This pattern has been evident for a long time.
Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6553 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

Looks almost as if.....it runs through a society, peaks and levels off, then drops.
That's a bingo:



Once it starts spreading in a community it has to run its course. New Zealand suppressed it, but will have to be vigilant for the next couple of years. Is it worth that?
Posted by Jimmy2shoes
The South
Member since Mar 2014
11004 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:01 pm to
But ABC News said they couldn't add another patient tot he hospitals because they were full?
Posted by Bunsbert Montcroff
Phoenix AZ / Boise ID
Member since Jan 2008
5500 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:01 pm to
if you use that site to toggle for "rates for 100,00 population" it is remarkable how maricopa county looks in comparison to other, smaller counties. we have the most total cases because 5 million people live in this county. but rates for 100,000 population is less than half of santa cruz county's totals. yuma county is pretty bad too. and of course navajo and apache counties on the reservation.

i know imperial county, CA is pretty hard hit right now and i doubt it has to do with kids going to bars (is there even anything to do in el centro?) i know the borders are "closed" but there is still a lot of cross-border traffic, mostly migrant workers and people with dual citizenship who live/work in both countries.
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
103106 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:04 pm to
These numbers need to be re crunched.
Posted by Bjorn Cyborg
Member since Sep 2016
26818 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:29 pm to
Is that 117 Covid hospitalizations in the entire state of Arizona?
Posted by lsunurse
Member since Dec 2005
129005 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

that 117 Covid hospitalizations in the entire state of Arizona?


Yeah....no


We have more than that in my hospital alone right now
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166326 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:32 pm to
Simple case of not testing enough. Need moar testing.
Posted by Ed Osteen
Member since Oct 2007
57499 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:33 pm to
7/10 people reading this post will be dead in 14 weeks
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166326 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

We have more than that in my hospital alone right now



subtle "my hospital is going to be so rich" brag is subtle.
Posted by WDE24
Member since Oct 2010
54141 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:38 pm to
Looks like the masks are working.
Posted by RealityTiger
Geismar, LA
Member since Jan 2010
20446 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:38 pm to
Posted by Curtis Lowe
Member since Dec 2019
1271 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:42 pm to
A couple of issues with the 7 day average spreadsheet:

1. The net disregards the 400+ per day average that is being discharged, and

2. Fails to take into account deaths.

So, in reality there are approx. 450+ per day being newly hospitalized.

Check the other tabs under the the Hospital Metrics tabs and you will see that ICU covid admits and patients on vents are rising. Also see the daily intubation tab, only 66 (iirc) for yesterday, but over 100 for most of the recent past.

Net number of hospitalizations is a worthless metric for trying to get a picture of what is actually happening. This is one of my biggest grips with LDH reporting.


ETA: Arizona by far has the most transparent reporting of any of the States websites and provides by far the most information.
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 1:44 pm
Posted by arkyhawk
SWMO
Member since Jan 2013
8116 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:43 pm to
Interesting that Phoenix and other major AZ cities started a mask mandate 3.5 weeks ago. Makes ya think, doesn't it?
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 1:44 pm
Posted by lsunurse
Member since Dec 2005
129005 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:44 pm to
quote:

subtle "my hospital is going to be so rich" brag is subtle.


Not at all


I don’t think you understand how much more it costs the hospitals to have so many COVID patients.

Whatever they get from the government in reimbursement isn’t covering all they had to actually spend when you look at things like:

Construction costs to turn rooms and entire units into negative pressure areas (my hospital did this)
Construction costs to make certain units COVID only so you can have separate “clean” and “dirty” areas (we did this...had to build temporary walls in many areas)
Additional hazard pay to staff on COVID units so they don’t up and quit their jobs
Massive increase in PPE and supplies needed for everyone (we all now have to wear masks and face shields walking into any patient care areas)
Costs of testing all the staff that are sick (they aren’t asking for your insurance cards so the hospital is footing the bill for staff testing).
COVID patients staying for months at a time in the ICU....that 37k they get only pays for only a couple days of ICU care
Costs of trying to find lots of extra staff through outside sources (Ex: travel nurse agencies).....those cost $$$ to the hospital

Those are just the ones I can think of...I’m sure posters that are more involved with hospital administration can enlighten us with other costs as well
Posted by WDE24
Member since Oct 2010
54141 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

Net number of hospitalizations is a worthless metric for trying to get a picture of what is actually happening.
If you are looking for the most accurate snapshot of the current situation, yes. But if you are looking at trends (flattening the curve, etc.) it provides some useful information. It's more useful than total confirmed positives for sure.
Posted by RougeDawg
Member since Jul 2016
5875 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:46 pm to
It is almost like humans have lived with overcoming diseases for tens of thousands of years!
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54369 posts
Posted on 7/13/20 at 1:48 pm to
I guess they will have to up the cost of a bandaid to $400 to cover those costs.
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