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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 16, 2020 Update: 86,411 cases - 3,375 deaths - 1,024,137 tested
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:42 pm to JJ27
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:42 pm to JJ27
quote:
Just curious where that number comes from exactly. Is it from the positive rate? Where do they get that to know they’re missing the correct number 10 fold?
ETA: Not a loaded question. Genuinely asking.
From undersized “studies” given way too much weight IMO.
1
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:42 pm to JJ27
quote:Who knows, science?
Just curious where that number comes from exactly. Is it from the positive rate? Where do they get that to know they’re missing the correct number 10 fold?
ETA: Not a loaded question. Genuinely asking.
I’m sure alot goes into it yada yada but that’s what they came up with But it makes sense. Our 25k plus antibody study across the state showed 11% positive rate in Louisiana as of June 1.
So today, almost two months later, multiplying confirmed cases by 10 would give the state a 19% infection rate so far. That seems in line
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:43 pm to danilo
quote:
From reddit
The dudes complaining about the OT becoming politicized should check out that reddit thread
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:No man. It’s 2+2+8+0 = 12
In reality, the number 2,280 is represented by the number 2,280.
Nothing more. Nothing less.
1+2= 3
3 is the Holy Trinity.
The Holy Trinity is vital for good Cajun food.
So 2280 is uber importanta. Capeash?
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:45 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:Im sure you have studies with a better estimate ready to go though
From undersized “studies” given way too much weight IMO.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:47 pm to lsupride87
Let’s dive in further
On June 1st, our 25,000 antibody study at Ochsner showed an infection rate of 11%
That would mean 495,000 people infected in Louisiana
On June 1, louisiana had 40,000 confirmed cases
495,000/40,000 is 12.375
So, it all seems to make sense for me that confirmed cases are underestimated by a factor of about 10
On June 1st, our 25,000 antibody study at Ochsner showed an infection rate of 11%
That would mean 495,000 people infected in Louisiana
On June 1, louisiana had 40,000 confirmed cases
495,000/40,000 is 12.375
So, it all seems to make sense for me that confirmed cases are underestimated by a factor of about 10
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:47 pm to stelly1025
quote:
1/4 of the State has been tested? That is insane.
No, there have been 1M tests. We have no clue how many people have actually been tested
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:54 pm to LSUJML
quote:
One of the ladies on my Grandpas hall got it & survived without going to hospital
I don’t know how in the hell she beat it, she has every comorbidity there is
The MAJORITY of ours did NOT go to the hospital. I think maybe 3 or 4 went per family request -- they ended up dying as far as I know (not saying that the hospital caused it just that's what the outcome was) except for 1 who was in a coma on a tube feeding and NOT a DNR who is NOW on a vent about 2 hours from the facility & will remain there.
The ones that the nurses sent out were 1) not compliant with O2 therefore sats were like BAD BAD BAD and/or 2) they were NOT DNR. They didn't want to be coding covid positive residents if they had other options so out they went.
We had some positive residents who "seemed" perfectly healthy prior to covid, really without comorbidities, that died; some we will forever wonder how they survived with being covid + and the laundry list of comorbidities but they did.
My best count is that we had 76 residents when this crap started; 15? (give or take one or 2) were NEVER positive, so that leaves roughly 61 positives -- 17 deaths have been labeled covid (some from starvation, other natural causes). SO (I'm not a numbers girl) that means that ~80% of our residents contracted it and of the 61 that were positive, 27.8% died.
I'd say death wise, as awful as it was, wasn't as bad as I assumed it would be. At one time I figured the average age of deaths was 80yo.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:00 pm to tiger91
Friend of mines dad with Covid.
83 years old
Pre existing Issue:
One normal functioning lung one with only 10% working.
phenomena in both lungs
Covid Positive.
Spent a week in the hospital for phenomena where he tested positive for Covid. No vent and was discharged last week and has been at home since feeling better.
I said if I get the virus and it kills me I am going to haunt him!
83 years old
Pre existing Issue:
One normal functioning lung one with only 10% working.
phenomena in both lungs
Covid Positive.
Spent a week in the hospital for phenomena where he tested positive for Covid. No vent and was discharged last week and has been at home since feeling better.
I said if I get the virus and it kills me I am going to haunt him!
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:05 pm to KLSU
That's awesome. I don't want to get it but it's likely only a matter of time. That said, if I get it I'll stay home, stay hydrated and away from my people. I'll either get through it or I won't.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:08 pm to tiger91
Are there a lot of nursing home residents that are NOT DNR?
I guess I am assuming most are but honestly don’t know
I guess I am assuming most are but honestly don’t know
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:10 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Hospital data is again delayed.
Trying to figure out how to cook the books.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:13 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Estimations by cdc and who are cases are undercounted by roughly 10x
The CDC undercount 10x is for the general population, not really age specific. We likely missed more 25 year old positives than 75 year old positives during that first wave (given how many of those are in nursing homes and were tested in mass, and how many 25 year olds just brush this thing off).
In the end I think it skews more toward youth infections being a non-issue (for instance if we caught 1 out of every 15 cases in 25 year olds and 1 out of every 5 in 75 year olds).
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:14 pm to LSUJML
LSUJML you'd be shocked at how many residents that we have that are NOT DNR. We actually had some residents that WERE DNR, tested positive, they went down hill, the family CHANGED THEIR STATUS TO FULL CODE. 
Went to the hospital and NOW has a feeding tube.
I'm not a hateful person -- I cried every time I looked at the d/c list and saw "expired" -- but for some of these people, it would be such a blessing to die in peace.
Went to the hospital and NOW has a feeding tube. I'm not a hateful person -- I cried every time I looked at the d/c list and saw "expired" -- but for some of these people, it would be such a blessing to die in peace.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:18 pm to tiger91
quote:
LSUJML you'd be shocked at how many residents that we have that are NOT DNR.
Agreed. Tiger91, have you noticed an increase in DNRs the past couple years in your facilities? This has been the case for Assisted Living, probably a product of everyone adopting an age in place philosophy. Always an awkward conversation with families, but one I ALWAYS have.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:20 pm to tiger91
quote:
We actually had some residents that WERE DNR, tested positive, they went down hill, the family CHANGED THEIR STATUS TO FULL CODE.
Selfish frickers. Zero regard for anyone else’s health or well being. That’s why the family shouldn’t be able to change the wishes of the patient.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:25 pm to BRIllini07
quote:And if you do that, the inferred mortality rate comes out to exactly 5% like I said for 75 and over in Louisiana
In the end I think it skews more toward youth infections being a non-issue (for instance if we caught 1 out of every 15 cases in 25 year olds and 1 out of every 5 in 75 year olds).
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:14 pm to tiger91
I didn’t know the family could change that
That’s sad, everyone needs to have that talk with their loved ones, it’s not easy but it’s reality
That’s sad, everyone needs to have that talk with their loved ones, it’s not easy but it’s reality
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:16 pm to JJ27
This lady was likely never able to have decided for herself honestly.
The staff was pretty infuriated in all honesty but had zero choice.
The staff was pretty infuriated in all honesty but had zero choice.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:17 pm to LSUJML
If the family has medical power of attorney I’m pretty sure that they can. The lady that was comatose and a tube feeder I mentioned? She ended up that way due to her family saying “no do everything” during a code even thought the patient had a dnr.
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