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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 3, 2020 Update: 10,297 Cases - 53,645 tested - 370 dead
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:58 pm to tiger91
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:58 pm to tiger91
quote:
Do we know where his numbers are coming from? I just do NOT see 1000s and 1000s and 1000s of vents being needed.
Nope, and that’s why I think we need to ask him to show his work like a 3rd grader who lucks into the right answer. I think he’s full of shite and want to know where he is getting his numbers and how he arrived at them, or otherwise he’s just going to claim that his measures worked and we have no way to know whether that stance is justified.
2
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:59 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
My gut tells me a lot of these tests are old. I just find it hard to believe that we're seeing 40%+ positive rates with the massive increase in testing capacity.
It would be interesting to see a report of positive test results by the date the test was taken as opposed to the date the test was reported. Right now we are seeing positive test reported that were taken last week.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:00 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Seems like we have plenty of ventilators and beds still available. JBE said we would be out of everything by the 6th
In region 1 ( which includes Orleans and Jefferson) only 136 ICU beds currently available
Also: Region 1 has 19% of vents available and region 2 (Baton Rouge) has 17% of vents available
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:01 pm to danilo
Here is a state-wide look at the current capacity of hospitals. This includes all patients, not just COVID.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:02 pm to danilo
Didn't look but is 136 the current number available today? Yesterday I think it was like 175. So, yeah, it's not inconceivable there will be problems with Region 1 in a few days. New York is allocating up-state ventilators/equipment down-state to New York City. Might see something similar in Louisiana.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:03 pm to Jebadeb
quote:
Only 2500 tests. 5300 the previous day.
JBE said there was a backlog at one of the private testing facility that was cleared yesterday
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:04 pm to TigerGrad2011
quote:
March 29, 2020
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards: State Will Start To Run Out Of Ventilators, Hospital Beds In First Week Of April
quote:
MAR 19, 2020
parts of the state would run out of resources to provide health care in seven to 10 days
quote:
Mar 26, 2020
Edwards said the state could run out of ventilators in the New Orleans area by as early as April 2 and be out of bed space by around April 7.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:06 pm to TigerGrad2011
quote:
Do we know where his numbers are coming from? I just do NOT see 1000s and 1000s and 1000s of vents being needed.
We are at 535 vents in use today. If you follow the models just on deaths (which has been pretty accurate) and go to one day after the peak (April 13th), the median projection expects nearly a 300% increase in deaths today until then (April 13th).
If you assume 90% of all those who die, get vented that would be an additional 643 vents. So, before calculating vents freed by death/recovery, you would be at 1179 vents.
And that's the median projection. The top end of the range is much more.
So it isn't out of the question that we would need over 1000 vents in the next ten days.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:07 pm to Unknown_Poster
quote:
it's not inconceivable there will be problems with Region 1 in a few days
Region 1 has 252 ventilators available.
There are 991 vents available statewide
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:07 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Mar 26, 2020 Edwards said the state could run out of ventilators in the New Orleans area by as early as April 2 and be out of bed space by around April 7.
Well, today is April 3rd and Region 1 beds are at 75% utilization
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:10 pm to danilo
quote:
Well, today is April 3rd and Region 1 beds are at 75% utilization
565 ICU beds available
7,675 Beds available
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:12 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
565 ICU beds available
7,675 Beds available
That is state-wide, not region 1
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:13 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
That is state-wide, not region 1
Correct
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:15 pm to Antonio Moss
Region 1
136 Available ICU Beds
905 Available Beds
136 Available ICU Beds
905 Available Beds
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:17 pm to tgrbaitn08
565 in use
136 available
A 24% increase in critical cases (necessitating ICU) in that Region will put them at capacity.
That's really not that unthinkable given the current trajectory.
136 available
A 24% increase in critical cases (necessitating ICU) in that Region will put them at capacity.
That's really not that unthinkable given the current trajectory.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:18 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
That's really not that unthinkable given the current trajectory.
You are assuming capacity cant be adjusted.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:21 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
You are assuming capacity cant be adjusted.
It may be able to but the one resource not shown on those charts is doctors. Creating bed space is pretty simple. Getting more ventilators is a little more tricky but doable. But whose going to render the care?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:22 pm to tgrbaitn08
You don't know much about this do you????????
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:23 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
You are assuming capacity cant be adjusted.
the convention center will increase capacity
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:24 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
It may be able to but the one resource not shown on those charts is doctors. Creating bed space is pretty simple. Getting more ventilators is a little more tricky but doable. But whose going to render the care?
Travel nurses, overtime, adjusted ratios
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