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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 1, 2020 Update: 6,424 Cases - 45,776 tested - 273 dead
Posted on 4/1/20 at 1:59 pm to DomincDecoco
Posted on 4/1/20 at 1:59 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:Less than or equal to 0.01% For people 49 and younger.
if cases keep rising so will deaths, sooner or later based on the mortality rate...whatever that may be
2
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:14 pm to BigPerm30
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:37 pm to Salmon
quote:
Hopefully we are better prepared with supplies and have a known treatment schedule to prevent another shut down.
We will also have some built-in acquired immunity.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:40 pm to tiger91
quote:
It shows 851 predicted for today and the LDH site shows that 490 are in use. Not to say that 490 isn't a lot, just that the model is pretty off.
851 is the median projection. The range is 150-1,238 so the current number is within the range.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:41 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
The range is 150-1,238
That's one hell of a range.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:43 pm to Master of Sinanju
quote:
That's one hell of a range.
That's what happens when you have to make projections on limited data and a lack of adequate testing.
The models aren't off; they are wide.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:43 pm to ell_13
quote:
if cases keep rising so will deaths, sooner or later based on the mortality rate...whatever that may be
Less than or equal to 0.01% For people 49 and younger.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:49 pm to DomincDecoco
Overall the death rate in Louisiana from COVID-19, 273 deaths among a population of approximately 4.6M people equals about 58 deaths per million people.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:51 pm to DomincDecoco
CFR for 18-49 will probably range from 0.5 to 0.2%
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:01 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
For instance, the U.S. has the highest total cases but currently Wyoming's projections for COVID are incredibly minor.
Viruses don’t like wind turbines?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:03 pm to TBoy
quote:
Viruses don’t like wind turbines?
No, they don't like people that don't live close to one another.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:05 pm to Salmon
quote:
It is 100% going to spike again in the fall.
Hopefully we are better prepared with supplies and have a known treatment schedule to prevent another shut down.
My expectation is that by fall we will have better treatment protocols and better management from experience. Hopefully our exposure this season will render the virus not-novel and our bodies will have some tools to fight. Things should be opened up by then.
This is a novel virus but it appears to follow the same rules as other viruses.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:32 pm to tommy2tone1999
quote:
Overall the death rate in Louisiana from COVID-19, 273 deaths among a population of approximately 4.6M people equals about 58 deaths per million people.
wouldnt that be calculated by deaths vs. how many people have been confirmed positive, not the overall population?
273/6425 = .0424
edit: math is hard
Multiply that rate by 4.6M (LA pop)= 195,455....doubt we get within half of this
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:47 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:That's one way to look at it. Total deaths divided by total population is another especially since the Gov. said in his most recent presser that the virus is indeed present in every parish, we just have't detected in tests yet. No one is immune from catching it. The figure are always displayed by number of deaths in those confirmed infected, yet no one takes total population into consideration.
wouldnt that be calculated by deaths vs. how many people have been confirmed positive, not the overall population?
quote:
273/6425 = .36
273/6425 = 0.042
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:57 pm to tommy2tone1999
quote:
273/6425 = 0.042
math is hard
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:06 pm to ell_13
quote:
Less than or equal to 0.01% For people 49 and younger.
howd you figure that?
would it then be greater than or equal to 7.1% for 50 and older?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:08 pm to DomincDecoco
Wasn’t the 18-29 confirmed to not have coronavirus?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:08 pm to DomincDecoco
Studies have been done which try to include that thousands of people who have gotten covid but don’t get confirmed. Most of these studies center on isolated testing like the cruise ships and entire towns in Italy where literally zero healthy people under 65 died.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:14 pm to tommy2tone1999
For the flu and for this demographers will eventually use deaths per 100000 population.
In a typical flu season the us has 15 to 20 deaths per 100000 and Louisiana has 18 to 23.
In 1957 there were 80 and in 1918 there were 300 deaths per 100000.
If Louisiana gets to 2000 deaths, that is 44 per 100000.
In 1957, there was no social distancing or cancelation of sports.
Baton Rouge has about 40 new HIV infections per 100,000. So dying from covid will be about as likely as getting HIV in Baton Rouge.
In a typical flu season the us has 15 to 20 deaths per 100000 and Louisiana has 18 to 23.
In 1957 there were 80 and in 1918 there were 300 deaths per 100000.
If Louisiana gets to 2000 deaths, that is 44 per 100000.
In 1957, there was no social distancing or cancelation of sports.
Baton Rouge has about 40 new HIV infections per 100,000. So dying from covid will be about as likely as getting HIV in Baton Rouge.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:30 pm to Shaun176
right now just based on actual confirmed cases and deaths, actual mortality rate is
World - 874,000 cases 43,200 deaths = 4.9%
US - 185,900 cases 3800 deaths = 2.0%
Louisiana - 6,424 cases 273 deaths = 4.2%
lots of unknows like: how many had it and got over it that didnt report, how many in hospitals will die, how does weather play in, etc etc etc.
Just going off what is concrete, it aint good. Long LONG two weeks ahead
edit: 7.2% of US deaths are in Louisiana
World - 874,000 cases 43,200 deaths = 4.9%
US - 185,900 cases 3800 deaths = 2.0%
Louisiana - 6,424 cases 273 deaths = 4.2%
lots of unknows like: how many had it and got over it that didnt report, how many in hospitals will die, how does weather play in, etc etc etc.
Just going off what is concrete, it aint good. Long LONG two weeks ahead
edit: 7.2% of US deaths are in Louisiana
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 4:33 pm
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