re: Let's Do It Again: Severe Threat 3/30 - Line of Severe Storms leaving SELA. AL in it now

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I’ll start with a direct copy and paste from the Storm Prediction Center…
“A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States. All severe
hazards are possible, including significant gusts over 75 mph and
strong (EF2+) tornadoes.”

That’s some pretty rough wording, as they’ve upgraded a large chunk of our area to a level 4 of 5, moderate risk for severe weather. My concern is also ramping up a bit, as those high resolution models show an interesting evolution of how this all goes down on Wednesday. Here’s what I’m seeing.

First off, like last week, parameters for severe weather are very high. Instability is a bit lower, but wind shear might actually be a bit higher than last week due to a stronger low pressure to our north. That intense low pressure will bring a continuous 20-35 mph wind from the south southeast, with gusts to 50+ possible, even away from storms. That, couple with a southwest flow several thousand feet above the ground means strong directional, and speed shear will be present. Couple that with “enough” instability, and there will be a risk for tornadoes, a couple of those tornadoes could be strong, and there is potential for widespread wind gusts in the 50-80 mph range. I can’t stress this enough, it’s going to be very windy tomorrow. There will be power outages. Not for everyone, and probably not some crazy long term thing, but with widespread wind, even if it were only in the 50-60 mph range, we would see scattered outages. The tornado threat will be much more isolated, but with the extreme low level shear, you’ll want to seek shelter if you find yourself in a warning tomorrow, as it only takes one tornado to cause huge problems.

The reason I’m a bit more concerned than yesterday, is that it looks like this could end up being a broken squall line instead of a solid line of storms. That would mean short line segments, or individual supercells along a line. Since these storms won’t be right along a sharp cold front with intense surface convergence, I’m concerned that this might happen. This would increase the tornado threat if we see these isolated cells, and shorter line segments. Most areas will see 1/2 to 2 inches of rain, which is manageable, so this system will be all about the severe threat. I’ll do a stream later on to go over this if that’s your thing. It goes without saying that I’ll be updating things often. But look at that, I said it anyway.

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There will be power outages.

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Looks like that convective system Roll Tide Ravens is pointing out is going to outrun the instability by the time it gets to us in central Alabama.

Guessing our concern here is more wind-related.

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Duke, I’m seeing stormcast talk about 50-60mph gusts all day tomorrow. Is that really possible?

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Duke, I’m seeing stormcast talk about 50-60mph gusts all day tomorrow. Is that really possible?

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Put away their trampolines!!

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