re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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That area hasn't had a major storm in a long time

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Hurricane Michael was only 2 years ago. Bizarre because it's the most under reported Cat 5 hurricane in U.S history so it feels like it happened years ago

12Z Euro ensembles

This it it baws. We’re doomed.

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Correct me if i'm wrong but 1002 mb is not even a hurricane correct?

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That’s 97L not 98.

Still has 98L hitting Texas as 980s mb storm which is backing off of the intensity but still a hurricane. 06z had it as a 952mb storm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to
limit significant development. After that time, however, the system
is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of
this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized since yesterday, with increasing banding features
near the center. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a
couple days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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Panama City took the brunt of that one

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Panama City Beach was very fortunate to end up on the western side of Michael’s eye. That helped them avoid the extreme storm surge.

Drove through Mexico Beach and two yrs later you can tell that place was absolutely wrecked by Michael.

So I’m not someone who really understands the Euro models and things like that. When is this thing supposed to be hitting? I’m supposed to be flying into Pensacola Wednesday the 26th for a beach trip. Is my trip screwed?

What should I look for before I start to get worried? How accurate are these things 1-2 weeks out?