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Started By
Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:34 pm to VanRIch
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:34 pm to VanRIch
quote:
I just noticed that. That C-130 is still heading towards Laura. Not sure if that’s the HH or not though
That's them. The C-130s are USAF, the P3s and Gulfstream are NOAA.
0
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:34 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
NHC discussions have downplayed shear in the Gulf the past couple days. They've said low to moderate shear a couple of times. I don't think that trough is going to have alot in the way of shear, at least after a day or two.
Shear would be low for Laura's gulf run. It's part of why you want a stronger Marco because it would provide shear. Without Marco to impede, you'll have an upper high venting Laura and providing good outflow channels.
There's a reason the HWRF and HMON have been blowing Laura up.
With a decently strong (even high end TS could be enough) Marco, it makes some shear. Additionally the quality of Laura once it gets to the Gulf matters because any time wasted organizing helps whoever is in the path.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:38 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:44 pm to Dlab2013
was hoping you had linked right back here 
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:45 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
Your gonna see 2 weak systems hit . One will hit west Texas and the other will be between NOLA and Destin. If it trends more East toward Destin, it won’t be bad.....
Bookmark it if you want. The new models will come out at 11pm, but all models have pretty much sucked this year, so who knows....
I bookmarked this. I hope your weather forecasting is better than your grammar.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:49 pm to Dlab2013
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:50 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
there anything like that around anymore.
SouthernWX.com
^ has people from all over the southeast on it, including numerous meteorologists and weather nerds who have real knowledge. Has a dedicated board for tropical weather.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:53 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:58 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Take a look at the wind map on MyRadar if you have it. It is quite impressive. There's a definite cyclone-esque spot of wind south of Marco's "center". Weird.
Those wind maps are often educated guesses when they’re trying to estimate winds over open water. There are satellite scans periodically, but they emails oarge deaths or the ocean too.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:02 pm to slackster
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:02 pm to The Boat
Between the milk and toilet paper shortage we are fricked boys.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:10 pm to rt3
quote:
was hoping you had linked right back here
Nah, those folks know their stuff over there, one named 2 landfalls to the T the last couple years that all the shite you see on TV completely missed. I have no affiliation, but I do donate due to the amount of knowledge there. Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:10 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
GFS continues the west trend. Got a high 2/low 3 for our friends in Beaumont. Strengthening into landfall. The Euro at 18z was certainly heading that direction (if not farther left) and the ensembles were in agreement.
Next question is if the Euro follows suit tonight.
The trend makes sense with how the ridge is staying nice and thick and building in a little.
Next question is if the Euro follows suit tonight.
The trend makes sense with how the ridge is staying nice and thick and building in a little.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:10 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Great. Laura got her period and also has diarrhea.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:14 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I bookmarked this. I hope your weather forecasting is better than your grammar.
Couldn’t pay my bills without the weather........I pay close attention to these things..... that’s all I’ll say about that.
Damn LSU education and an ole I pad are the reason for grammar....
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:16 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
Couldn’t pay my bills without the weather........I pay close attention to these things..... that’s all I’ll say about that.
Do you make rain gauges?
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:25 pm to Dlab2013
Massive thread incoming.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:27 pm to Duke
There have been numerous cones with NOLA on the crosshairs 5 days out over the past decade the amounted to nothing.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:42 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
Do you make rain gauges?
Ive measured water lines on flooded houses for 9 years now.....that’s all I’ll say about that.
Stay calm guys, Sunday night to early Monday morning then lock on to the forecast...
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:44 pm to Duke
To follow up, watch the 591 line. Just looking at the last three runs.
There's a big trough (blues) over the Canadian Maritimes that has been showing up slower and a little stronger over time. This feature was digging in and breaking down the ridge on previous runs and it's why everything was farther east. Not so much now as the progression has slowed. The stronger the ridge, the farther west it pushes in, the farther west our storms go.
The western progression makes sense and I'm expecting the track shifts to continue at 4 am.
Now to the conditions over the Gulf.
We know the water is plenty warm.
You got this upper anticyclone sitting there with light to nil upper level winds over the system with ample outflow channel potential north and south. Check out the RH to have an idea where they establish and see how the system should have dry air locked out.
Again, assuming Marco doesn't do enough to throw a wrench in this the ride over the Gulf is pretty damn favorable for strengthening. The 00z GFS run had it run over Cuba, be barely closed off, and get down to the low 960s by landfall.
There's a big trough (blues) over the Canadian Maritimes that has been showing up slower and a little stronger over time. This feature was digging in and breaking down the ridge on previous runs and it's why everything was farther east. Not so much now as the progression has slowed. The stronger the ridge, the farther west it pushes in, the farther west our storms go.
The western progression makes sense and I'm expecting the track shifts to continue at 4 am.
Now to the conditions over the Gulf.
We know the water is plenty warm.
You got this upper anticyclone sitting there with light to nil upper level winds over the system with ample outflow channel potential north and south. Check out the RH to have an idea where they establish and see how the system should have dry air locked out.
Again, assuming Marco doesn't do enough to throw a wrench in this the ride over the Gulf is pretty damn favorable for strengthening. The 00z GFS run had it run over Cuba, be barely closed off, and get down to the low 960s by landfall.
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