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Started By
Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:08 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:08 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
So we got any amateur Metrologist on here? How many more westward shifts can we expect?
NHC forecast discussion
quote:
The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established.
A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is
expected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to move
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days.
This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, near
Hispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday and
Monday. By early next week, Laura should approach the western end
of the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turn
toward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the steering pattern is well established, there are
still chances of center reformations, which could cause small but
important track changes. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the south of the previous one to account for the more
southern initial position and westward motion. Near the end of the
period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm
Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico,
however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain
at this time.
0
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:09 pm to Dizz
Track didn't really change for Cristobal, now yes this is way more complicated than that ha.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:09 pm to burdman
That thing is supposed to stay together over the lebgth of Hispaniola and Cuba? Seems suspect.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:11 pm to RummelTiger
Fricking right. rds and Duke are the real deal. I’ve followed them for the past three Hurricane seasons. If they tell you it’s Easter, you better dye some eggs.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:11 pm to Jim Rockford
The islands don’t tear up disorganized systems like they tear up organized storms.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:11 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Hurricane Frederic took a very similar path over Cuba, and ended up a Cat. 4.
Completely unrelated to this scenario, but I read up on Ivan a few days ago. Frederic's track though AL reminded me just now. I didn't know, or had forgotten, about the giant freak wave in the Gulf. 91ft tall and over 600ft long. Also, models showed potential 103ft+ waves in the eye wall. That is crazy!
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:11 pm to Jim Rockford
Sandbag sites already out in Terrebonne, prefilled ones coming tomorrow.
Sam's club, Walmart neighborhood market, cannatas, all out of milk.
Sam's club, Walmart neighborhood market, cannatas, all out of milk.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 10:12 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:12 pm to The Boat
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:13 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
That thing is supposed to stay together over the lebgth of Hispaniola and Cuba? Seems suspect.
the shear that's been keeping Laura weak is supposed to dissipate over the weekend... which obviously works in the storm's favor
how much will it consolidate (will the low & mid level circulations stack properly)... and how much land interaction will it actually see... are the big questions
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:13 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
If they tell you it’s Easter, you better dye some eggs.
I came here for two things. To track canes and dye eggs, and I'm all out of eggs...
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:13 pm to The Boat
quote:
The islands don’t tear up disorganized systems like they tear up organized storms.
I haven't thought about that, but it makes sense.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:13 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:14 pm to The Boat
quote:
The islands don’t tear up disorganized systems like they tear up organized storms.
in fact... just weeks ago... Hispaniola helped Isaias consolidate its center and allowed it to spin up and strengthen
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:14 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
So we got any amateur Metrologist on here?
TDsngumbo
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 10:16 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I came here for two things. To track canes and dye eggs, and I'm all out of eggs...
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:15 pm to rt3
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:16 pm to rt3
quote:
Marco updated track
We are pretty much out of the cone, but we will still be on the NE side. Not good with a TS considering their rain bands are always far away from any center.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:17 pm to GEAUXmedic
These are my favorite threads each year. I just wish we were watching these storms close in on some far away country and not our homes.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:18 pm to lsutiger2010
quote:
So they have it landing as a Cat 1 right now. Watching storms blow up as they cross the gulf in late August has me skeptical of that prediction.
And the fact that models haven't exactly performed amazingly well in regards to intensity this season is reason enough for concern.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:19 pm to GEAUXT
quote:
These are my favorite threads each year. I just wish we were watching these storms close in on some far away country and not our homes.
If that were the case, there wouldn't be a thread.
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