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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43297 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to
While not strong first time in a while Euro shows it deepening in the Gulf. Gonna be a long arse 4 to 5 days. Talking about Laura
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
15807 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to
Is why I inquired

Had never seen such given my childhood days....Singular badasses, you bet but never more than that
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to
Just showing this cause it's a beaut. I'll give it to them, the tropical models always spit out beautiful, symmetrical images.

This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted by Bwmdx
Member since Dec 2018
3438 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to
Gotch, I didn’t think of that. Thx.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to
Everything is pointing Laura on a westward track since it dipped to the south messing the track up. It took the southern end of their track so it seems reasonable to think it might push further west into somewhere like Louisiana. Need to see what 14 does first though.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to
Low resolution on the Euro model there, probably mid 990-s on high-res
Posted by MsGarrison
Steele Town LOL
Member since Nov 2009
22496 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to


Change the month and this is nearly spot on
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11008 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to
Can any of you Mets remember a situation where the models all disagreed so drastically?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

Can any of you Mets remember a situation where the models all disagreed so drastically?



Ummm, all the fricking time.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:26 pm to
Euro brings a TS (Laura) into Terrebonne. Getting some consolidation on track, but not intensity. The Euro is acknowledging it for the first time though.

This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:26 pm to
They're struggling with the systems because they have too many variables on the table. None of which the conditions have played out yet to decide.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11008 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:27 pm to
ReallY? I don't remember ever seeing a difference like what we have today. Especially in the GFS, CMC, and the Euro.
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
23145 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:29 pm to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50827 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm to
Each of the models are scatter brained trying to figure these two systems out due to them being so close to each other. Each one creates its own miniature "climate", if you will. This will result in the other one being affected in some way, likely weakening one of them and creating a "vacuum", so to speak, allowing the other to follow in the same bit of a general direction.

In other words, the models don't know how to deal with two at the same time so close to each other.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:31 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm to
Current thinking on timing.

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102818 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

For the HMON & HWRF haters


Now that’s a spicy meatball
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
56090 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:31 pm to
I don't see much on either of these two storms to make them that bad even if they head towards LA

My biggest concern is flooding but if they are not scheduled to stall out LA should be in decent shape as it's been very dry the last month or so.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11008 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

Each of the models are scatter brained trying to figure these two systems out due to them being so close to each other. Each one creates its own miniature "climate", if you will. This will result in the other one being affected in some way, likely weakening one of them and creating a "vacuum", so to speak, allowing the other to follow in the same bit of a general direction.

In other words, the models don't know how to deal with two at the same time so close to each other


So, since this has never happened in the Gulf, they have never disagreed like this.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50827 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:33 pm to
In a nutshell, yes. There's also the interaction with nearby land. There's simply too much going on with this situation for the models to be able to have a good grasp of what to expect. I saw Steve Caparotta say earlier that this is probably the most difficult tropical system he and his colleagues have ever tracked and tried to forecast. At least he is honest when he essentially says, "I don't have a clue".
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:34 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

So, since this has never happened in the Gulf, they have never disagreed like this.


The disagreement isn't that weird, but it's how little confidence there is in any depiction being correct with them not developing systems and the NHC sticking with two hurricanes. It's hard to trust them at this point beside the synoptic (large) scale features and even those are shifty still.
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