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Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to Glock17
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to Glock17
While not strong first time in a while Euro shows it deepening in the Gulf. Gonna be a long arse 4 to 5 days. Talking about Laura
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to rt3
Is why I inquired
Had never seen such given my childhood days....Singular badasses, you bet but never more than that
Had never seen such given my childhood days....Singular badasses, you bet but never more than that
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to rt3
Just showing this cause it's a beaut. I'll give it to them, the tropical models always spit out beautiful, symmetrical images.


This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:23 pm to STEVED00
Gotch, I didn’t think of that. Thx.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
Everything is pointing Laura on a westward track since it dipped to the south messing the track up. It took the southern end of their track so it seems reasonable to think it might push further west into somewhere like Louisiana. Need to see what 14 does first though.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to Glock17
Low resolution on the Euro model there, probably mid 990-s on high-res
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to deuce985
Change the month and this is nearly spot on
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
Can any of you Mets remember a situation where the models all disagreed so drastically?
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:25 pm to OldSouth
quote:
Can any of you Mets remember a situation where the models all disagreed so drastically?
Ummm, all the fricking time.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:26 pm to GEAUXmedic
Euro brings a TS (Laura) into Terrebonne. Getting some consolidation on track, but not intensity. The Euro is acknowledging it for the first time though.


This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:26 pm to OldSouth
They're struggling with the systems because they have too many variables on the table. None of which the conditions have played out yet to decide.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:27 pm to GEAUXmedic
ReallY? I don't remember ever seeing a difference like what we have today. Especially in the GFS, CMC, and the Euro.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm to OldSouth
Each of the models are scatter brained trying to figure these two systems out due to them being so close to each other. Each one creates its own miniature "climate", if you will. This will result in the other one being affected in some way, likely weakening one of them and creating a "vacuum", so to speak, allowing the other to follow in the same bit of a general direction.
In other words, the models don't know how to deal with two at the same time so close to each other.
In other words, the models don't know how to deal with two at the same time so close to each other.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm to Glock17
Current thinking on timing.

Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:30 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
For the HMON & HWRF haters
Now that’s a spicy meatball
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:31 pm to rt3
I don't see much on either of these two storms to make them that bad even if they head towards LA
My biggest concern is flooding but if they are not scheduled to stall out LA should be in decent shape as it's been very dry the last month or so.
My biggest concern is flooding but if they are not scheduled to stall out LA should be in decent shape as it's been very dry the last month or so.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:32 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Each of the models are scatter brained trying to figure these two systems out due to them being so close to each other. Each one creates its own miniature "climate", if you will. This will result in the other one being affected in some way, likely weakening one of them and creating a "vacuum", so to speak, allowing the other to follow in the same bit of a general direction.
In other words, the models don't know how to deal with two at the same time so close to each other
So, since this has never happened in the Gulf, they have never disagreed like this.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:33 pm to OldSouth
In a nutshell, yes. There's also the interaction with nearby land. There's simply too much going on with this situation for the models to be able to have a good grasp of what to expect. I saw Steve Caparotta say earlier that this is probably the most difficult tropical system he and his colleagues have ever tracked and tried to forecast. At least he is honest when he essentially says, "I don't have a clue".
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 1:34 pm to OldSouth
quote:
So, since this has never happened in the Gulf, they have never disagreed like this.
The disagreement isn't that weird, but it's how little confidence there is in any depiction being correct with them not developing systems and the NHC sticking with two hurricanes. It's hard to trust them at this point beside the synoptic (large) scale features and even those are shifty still.
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