re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Comma to da top

Louisiana about to get DP'd

The Euro ain't run yet but it's time for a dive into what the 12z models are showing us.

Starting with the UKmet:

The big change from yesterday is how strong that ridge is over off of the Carolinas and Georgia. Both these images are for 00z Wednesday. Don't pay attention to where the storms are, I'm just looking for that ridge evolution.

12z Yesterday:



12z Today:



The GFS is showing us the same trend. Again for 00z Wednesday.

12z Yesterday:



12z Today:



Now the Euro at 12z yesterday vs 00z last night.

12z Yesterday:



00z Today:



We'll see what the Euro and EPS shows us this afternoon but the trend is there for the ridge to not break down quite as much and this is why you're seeing the western push on the models for Laura. The southern shift this morning just reenforces that trend.

The models are still very much struggling with this situation with it being near impossible to find even an individual ensemble member from the GFS or Euro that has two storms under 1000 mb in the gulf at the same time. They all will tend to favor one or the other.

You can see it in the hurricane models, with the HMON actually appearing to send Laura to Texas riding west south of Louisiana.

Nobody pay attention to the HWRF on Laura.

I suspect that 924 mb is overdone.

Interestingly though, the HMON and HWRF are on the same generaly idea for 14. Cat 1-2 round abouts Cameron Parish. They're both cutting off the dry air enough to let it develop once it pops into the Gulf. The big caveat here is I don't think either is really depicting the other storm and that means taking this all with a bigger grain of salt than normal.





The GFS tends to agree with the change, looking to both slow down 14 and keeps the dry air cut off to the west of the system. Probably why both our hurricane models are starting to ramp up 14 over the Gulf.

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Has there every been two hurricanes at the same time in the Gulf? Also will New Orleans survive being in between the two?

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Better to be in between the two of them than catch a direct shot from one of them.

Why? It's not his fault people can't interpret models. You look all of them to see if you can find a general trend and the trend that models have shown so far are a westward track for Laura.

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Has there every been two hurricanes at the same time in the Gulf?

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nope. not hurricanes. two storms yes.

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Harvey and Michael say hello!!

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Michael was a tropical storm that was predicted to make landfall as a category 1

3 days before it made landfall as a category 5

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nope. not hurricanes. two storms yes.

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This is correct.