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Started By
Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/20/20 at 3:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/20/20 at 3:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
thirteen's track gets put right where michael went in a few years back
yikes
yikes
3
Posted on 8/20/20 at 3:58 pm to DVinBR
Okay, here are the new cones for 4pm CDT
TD 13
Waiting on TD 14’s updated cone
TD 13
Waiting on TD 14’s updated cone
Posted on 8/20/20 at 3:58 pm to DVinBR
Hurricane Hunters repotted the center of TD14 a little further south than originally believed
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 3:59 pm to DVinBR
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...
5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 20
Location: 14.3°N 81.0°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 20
Location: 14.3°N 81.0°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:00 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:00 pm to lsuman25
Updated cone for TD 14
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:00 pm to rds dc
Ok 4pm. When does the new projection drop?
Eta: LuLz right on time.
Damn thing didn't shift.
Eta: LuLz right on time.
Damn thing didn't shift.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:01 pm to NorthEndZone
14 can end up being a problem if it misses the Yucatán completely
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:01 pm to lsuman25
quote:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
This might be a dumb question, but do Honduras and Nicaragua give a shite about the US National Weather Service issuing a weather warning?
I'd imagine they piggy back off of our resources - I would if I was them.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:01 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
14 didn't shift very much to the east. I'll take it.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:01 pm to tketaco
quote:
Ok 4pm. When does the new projection drop?
See the few posts above yours.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:01 pm to tketaco
quote:
Ok 4pm. When does the new projection drop?
next full NHC update with forecast cones and what not is 10 PM Central
other models should start running within the next couple hours
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
More easterly shift it looks like.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:03 pm to deuce985
quote:
More easterly shift it looks like.
yeah the US landfall was shifted more towards the LA/TX border
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:05 pm to rt3
the 10 PM updates on both TDs will be interesting b/c they both should have lots of new Hurricane Hunter observations added to it
a more complete picture should be available at 10 PM
a more complete picture should be available at 10 PM
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:06 pm to deuce985
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:11 pm to rds dc
Just read both 21Z discussions on TD13 and TD14.
Question: does it seem like these hurricane specialists are dumbfounded when it comes to intensity and future paths of TC’s ?
Question: have any of these tired old forecast models been worth a crap beyond 72 hours ?
What is the point of it all when NHC staff says we really don’t know anything about these systems beyond 72 hours ?
Seems like forecasts should have gotten better than they have. I respect the fact NHC is having two cyclones to deal with at the same time but damn they missed the center of TD14 by over 70 nm this morning.
I understand uncertainty as a fellow meteorology graduate but these guys aren’t any better than Neil Frank and Bob Sheets were 30 years ago.
Question: does it seem like these hurricane specialists are dumbfounded when it comes to intensity and future paths of TC’s ?
Question: have any of these tired old forecast models been worth a crap beyond 72 hours ?
What is the point of it all when NHC staff says we really don’t know anything about these systems beyond 72 hours ?
Seems like forecasts should have gotten better than they have. I respect the fact NHC is having two cyclones to deal with at the same time but damn they missed the center of TD14 by over 70 nm this morning.
I understand uncertainty as a fellow meteorology graduate but these guys aren’t any better than Neil Frank and Bob Sheets were 30 years ago.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:15 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Euro track is close to the NHC track for TD14. Surprisingly, it loses strength as it approaches upper TX coast - from 987 to 998 mb.
There is an upper level trough across the Gulf that is dumping dry air down and will cause shear on the eastern side of it as it retrogrades back towards Texas. A more developed system that can keep some distance from this upper level feature might be able to develop a poleward outflow channel. The GFS-para has been doing this and to a lesser extent the GFS and the 12z Euro today. Eventually, the Euro cuts off an ULL and as the system approaches Texas this ULL induces shear over the system and pumps in dry air.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:17 pm to The Boat
quote:
If this thing shoots the Yucatan Channel and stays over water....
It does get more interesting but there is a pocket of dry air over the NW Gulf that is going to be a thorn in it's dreams of being a proper hurricane.
The big upper trough retrogrades west some but still has some effect and brings in some drier air from the SW with it. It's not a lot to shear it but enough to hopefully have it fight dry air intrusions all the way in.
Area averaged sounding at 90h on the GFS showing that little dry air pocket near 500 mb and 12 kts of shear.
The Euro has the same dry air intrusion on the south side at 90 h and that's probably why it starts to weaken it after a quick ramp up when it first enters the Gulf.
Point is, that's going to be the question (isn't it always this year?) for TD14.
Downstream of that, how strong TD14 ends up will have a lot to do with how far east TD13 can get. Additionally how far west TD14 goes will also impact how much it breaks down the ridge.
The GFS, a stronger and eastern solution for 14.
The UKMet, a weaker but still Louisiana solution for 14.
The Euro, a weaker and western TD 14. (Note it doesn't do anything with 13)
It's complicated how the two systems will interact but here's at least a couple of pieces we'll be watching as this goes forward.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:18 pm to Klingler7
tell me this thing not coming straight for us?
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