re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Anyone do a welfare check on JB? He hasn't posted any hard hitting war updates since 8:36 AM

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The word on the street that he and the rest of the firehosers are moving to the east with the bombers.

They should assume the US is allied with Russia now regarding this conflict. Move on and stop waiting for the US to help. Help isn't coming from America.

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Rest of G7 prepared to lower Russian oil price cap without U.S.

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The Oil Cap was a failure the 1st time. It did not work and will not work. The main reason it will not work is because they want to maintain global oil supply so prices don't go parabolic. Per Grok




"The Russian oil price cap, implemented by the G7, EU, and Australia in December 2022, aimed to limit Russia’s oil revenue while maintaining global oil supply stability. It largely failed to achieve its goals due to several key factors:

Widespread Circumvention and Loopholes: Russia exploited gaps in enforcement, such as inflating transportation costs or using non-G7 services, to sell oil above the $60-per-barrel cap. By mid-2023, Russian Urals crude consistently traded above the cap, with prices reaching around $70 per barrel, undermining the policy’s intent to restrict revenue.

Development of a Shadow Fleet: Russia built a "shadow fleet" of tankers, often old and poorly maintained, to bypass G7-controlled shipping and insurance services. These vessels, frequently registered under flags of convenience like Gabon, allowed Russia to export oil without adhering to the cap. About two-thirds of Russian oil shipments used such tankers with "unknown" insurers, increasing risks but evading restrictions.

Weak Enforcement: The cap relied on G7 and EU maritime services (e.g., insurance, shipping) to enforce compliance, but enforcement was lax. For instance, 48% of Russian oil cargoes were carried by G7/EU tankers or insurers, yet few operators faced penalties for non-compliance. The attestation process, meant to verify price compliance, was easily manipulated with dodgy paperwork.

Alternative Markets and Buyers: Russia shifted exports to countries like India and China, which did not enforce the cap and had leverage to demand discounts but still paid above the cap when global prices rose. This ensured Russia maintained high export volumes and revenue, especially as global oil prices increased in 2023.

Insufficient Global Participation: The cap’s effectiveness was limited by the lack of participation from major oil-importing nations like China and India. Without broader international support, Russia found alternative buyers willing to pay market prices, reducing the cap’s impact.

High Global Oil Prices: Rising global oil prices in 2023 diminished the cap’s effectiveness. As Brent crude prices climbed, Russia’s discounted oil still fetched higher prices, boosting revenues. The fixed $60 cap became less restrictive in a high-price environment, allowing Russia to earn near pre-cap levels.

Russia’s Economic Adaptation: Russia adapted by increasing its own shipping and insurance capacity and using currencies like UAE dirhams or Chinese renminbi for transactions, reducing reliance on G7 services. This adaptability helped Russia maintain export earnings, with oil revenues reaching $18.8 billion in September 2023, the highest since July 2022

Well, TACO just can't shake his Epstein problem. First Musk's bombshell tweet and now this.

Here is a video that went up on You Tube yesterday. In this video, Michael Wolff, a famous author and journalist, describes his visit to Jeffrey Epstein's home during Trump's first term. Epstein wanted Wolff to write his biography as part of a reputational rehab (it didn't happen for obvious reasons).

During this visit (starting at 08:35 of video), Wolff states that Epstein opened his safe and showed him photographs of Trump and Epstein with topless young women 'of indeterminate age'. In one photo, a number of these young women were giggling and pointing at Trump's crotch as he had a large 'stain' on the front of his pants.

At a later date, Wolff asked Epstein (at 13:03) if he knew Putin. Epstein replied yes, he even had flown to Moscow to visit him.

When the FBI raided Epstein's home in 2019, the contents of his safe were confiscated.

Ok, there's much more detail, but why is this so important? For two reasons - Trump can't ignore it and he can't do anything about it either.

Here's a well known journalist appearing openly on a public video stating that Trump had his photo taken with seemingly underaged topless girls in company with the greatest sex trafficker and pedophile of our age. In addition, he states that Epstein knew and visited Putin in Russia.

Now, if anyone accused you of being complicit in these actions, what would you do? Yes, you'd hire a large team of lawyers and sue for defamation. So what may we expect Trump to do? Trump, the most litigious person in the country's history with over 800 lawsuits in his career, someone who sued CBS for asking his political opponent "the wrong questions", what do you think he will do?

I'll tell you what he'll do - nothing. Remember, Trump Always Chickens Out. He knows that depositions are a two-way street and with defamation cases the truth is an absolute defense. So if sued, Wolff requests the judge to issue a subpoena to the FBI for the entire Epstein file and the original records of contents and possession. And that is a subpoena Trump cannot afford to see.

So if we want to know if Wolff is lying, we just need to see what TACO does about it. If he does nothing, we know it's the truth, all the way to Moscow.

It explains everything.

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nd we're going to have to reconsider how we constitute our society. There will be no middle-class if this comes to pass... and you can't really have the economy we have today without a middle-class. I did actually see someone say yesterday "we need the illegals gone because Americans are going to need those jobs because of AI... ha!" I don't know that people will accept that outcome.

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Well one issue is that in certain fields you're going to see talented, experienced people kept and the average and bad eggs scrapped.

Jobs will require people with experience because the tasks will become "how can we get the most out of AI for our industry", but if you don't have industry experience you won't know the prompts to use. Listing will say "We need someone with 7-10 or 10-15 years of experience in X field", but eventually you aren't going to have people with 7-15 years of experience because there aren't jobs for the 0-6 year bracket.

And thats on the upper end of the boundary. On the middle and lower end jobs you have people who just aren't really that productive outside of the ability to do tasks that take a lot of time and not a lot of skill.

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The same goes for AI which has been grossly incorrect more than one looking for info on a subject. An OLD arse Atari beat ChatGPT in Chess.

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And if you read the post you replied to I addressed why the popular LLMs are inherently flawed and will remain so until compute power increases substantially.

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It won't replace manufacturing. It won't replace welding, or stringing instrumentation and electrical. It won't replace your plumber or electrician. It won't replace fish in the sea or fishermen catching them.

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It doesn't have to "replace" a single job to significantly impact the job market. The value will be in getting more out of fewer people.

Robotics can do almost everything you listed, and AI will only make that better too.

All of this is going to happen, its just a matter of when.

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Ok, there's much more detail, but why is this so important?

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It isn't. Michael Wolff is selling a book...his fourth about Trump.

He's keeping the money train going.