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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/14/25 at 11:38 am to CitizenK
Posted on 3/14/25 at 11:38 am to CitizenK
quote:
Why Wright recently stated that $50 per barrel was still profitable in the US. Russia's very inefficient production and transportation system is roughly $50 breakeven at least that was the case in 2015
Saw a discussion of this somewhere last night...
Apparently, Saudi Arabia needs $90 a barrel oil to stay in the black in their government finances, so their target is $100 a barrel to give themselves a surplus and a slush fund. Note that their production costs are low... but their spending with the money the oil brings in is high. So it's a revenue minus expenditures thing... Salary minus spending. If they cut spending, they get an angry citizenry and maybe a revolution.
Will they allow things to go lower? When it benefits them for a while, but they are eating away at their savings account when they do (and it's pretty much the only thing in their economy). Since September, they've been allowing oil to go lower by removing their production restrictions so they can strategically pick off market share. They'll raise it again... soon.
As for Russia... yeah, the production price matters, but same scenario with this being the biggest part of the Russian GDP, and it has to fund Russian government spending and then the war on top of that... so that price they need oil to trade for that reflects them not being in the red might be much higher than $50 a barrel?
0
Posted on 3/14/25 at 11:41 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
It seems the Democrats have smelled the coffee and have a candidate for 2028.
In the last couple of days, this seems to have just happened...
Newsome has ruined his chance with his podcast chatting with Bannon and those guys. All he had to do was keep his mouth shut and be tall...
Posted on 3/14/25 at 11:51 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Orban is a relatively small player in European politics, and I'm struggling to see the benefits of his strategy for Hungary itself.
I think considering Hungary's size and importance Orban has an outsized influence compared to what he realistically should have.
I was mainly talking about the fact that EU (and US) media act like he is a Russian stooge when in actuality he is just out for Hungary. Sometimes that aligns with Russia, sometimes it aligns with the EU. Anyone who capitulates less than 99% of the time is a Putin ally or something.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 11:59 am to VolSquatch
I'm not convinced he is getting all that much for Hungary with his positions though. He got F-16s at some point, but only after Turkey also asked for them (if I recall). Otherwise, he generally takes a position and then after negotiations, takes the opposite position with no clear victory in terms of concession. It seems more often than not he is browbeaten into submission.
Maybe Erdogan is just a more talented politician than Orban, which could account for the difference.
Maybe Erdogan is just a more talented politician than Orban, which could account for the difference.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 12:14 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 3/14/25 at 12:52 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/14/25 at 12:54 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/14/25 at 1:06 pm to Lee B
quote:
Newsome has ruined his chance with his podcast chatting with Bannon and those guys. All he had to do was keep his mouth shut and be tall...
I think Newsome ruined his chance to appeal outside of California by looking exactly like American Psycho and taking that picture on the rug with Kimberly Guilfoyle.
As for the war, I recall Ukraine allowing Russians caught in Kherson to cross the river. In restrospect that was a big mistake.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 2:05 pm to ned nederlander
I joked in a class back during the 1988 election that Dukakis wouldn't win because he was short.
The teacher said "... you know that actually has some historical trends to back that up! Since photographs and newspapers became widespread, but especially since the advent of television, the taller of the two candidates usually wins."
Independent: Americans tend to elect the tallest person for president - here's how the 2020 candidates would fare
The tallest presidential candidate has won the popular vote in two-thirds of elections
The thing about this article is that it uses Trump's lied about height (6'3") instead of his actual height (6'). He and Biden are the same height,,,
Trump usually wears lifts in his shoes to appear taller, but they throw him off balance and make him look like he's leaning forward all the time.
The teacher said "... you know that actually has some historical trends to back that up! Since photographs and newspapers became widespread, but especially since the advent of television, the taller of the two candidates usually wins."
Independent: Americans tend to elect the tallest person for president - here's how the 2020 candidates would fare
The tallest presidential candidate has won the popular vote in two-thirds of elections
The thing about this article is that it uses Trump's lied about height (6'3") instead of his actual height (6'). He and Biden are the same height,,,
Trump usually wears lifts in his shoes to appear taller, but they throw him off balance and make him look like he's leaning forward all the time.
This post was edited on 3/14/25 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 3/14/25 at 2:08 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/14/25 at 2:30 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Maybe Erdogan is just a more talented politician than Orban, which could account for the difference.
I think thats possible, and I also think there is a perception that Erdogan is more likely to follow through with threats than Orban is.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 2:48 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/14/25 at 3:32 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I'm not convinced he is getting all that much for Hungary with his positions though.
Seems lots of claims of corruption in his return to power. Before then he was lauded for free market policies.
One friend in Poland (former NSA under Reagan after being wounded in Lebanon) and another based in the US but with ties to Ukraine, Turkey and Kazakhstan have both told me that Orban had special deals with Putin on price of natural gas and crude oil from Russia below market price.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 5:13 pm to CitizenK
Putin sets new condition for ceasefire: Ukrainian troops in Kursk must surrender
14.03.2025 21:0
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated on Friday that, in order to fulfill U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk region, Ukraine’s military leadership should order them to lay down their arms and surrender.
As reported by Ukrinform, this information comes from the Kremlin's Telegram channel, citing Putin's speech at an operational meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council.
The Kremlin leader said he “understood” Trump’s call to prioritize humanitarian considerations concerning Ukrainian soldiers.
“Provided they lay down their arms and surrender, these Ukrainian soldiers will be guaranteed life and humane treatment in accordance with international law and Russian laws,” Putin said.
He added that, for the “effective implementation of Trump’s call,” Ukraine’s political-military leadership must give the corresponding order to the military units to surrender and be taken as prisoners of war.
Putin claims that Ukrainian soldiers are blocked by Russian troops in Kursk region. He also alleged that these Ukrainian fighters have committed “many crimes against the civilian population” of Kursk region, which Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office is investigating as “terrorism.”
On Friday, the Ukrainian General Staff’s press service declared that reports of Ukrainian units allegedly being encircled by the enemy in Kursk region were false and fabricated by the Russians for political purposes.
On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the primary goal of the Kursk operation was to divert Russian troops from Pokrovsk, the Kharkiv direction, and Sumy. Ukrainian forces successfully achieved this goal, though the situation in Kursk remains challenging.
Ukrinform
14.03.2025 21:0
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated on Friday that, in order to fulfill U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk region, Ukraine’s military leadership should order them to lay down their arms and surrender.
As reported by Ukrinform, this information comes from the Kremlin's Telegram channel, citing Putin's speech at an operational meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council.
The Kremlin leader said he “understood” Trump’s call to prioritize humanitarian considerations concerning Ukrainian soldiers.
“Provided they lay down their arms and surrender, these Ukrainian soldiers will be guaranteed life and humane treatment in accordance with international law and Russian laws,” Putin said.
He added that, for the “effective implementation of Trump’s call,” Ukraine’s political-military leadership must give the corresponding order to the military units to surrender and be taken as prisoners of war.
Putin claims that Ukrainian soldiers are blocked by Russian troops in Kursk region. He also alleged that these Ukrainian fighters have committed “many crimes against the civilian population” of Kursk region, which Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office is investigating as “terrorism.”
On Friday, the Ukrainian General Staff’s press service declared that reports of Ukrainian units allegedly being encircled by the enemy in Kursk region were false and fabricated by the Russians for political purposes.
On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the primary goal of the Kursk operation was to divert Russian troops from Pokrovsk, the Kharkiv direction, and Sumy. Ukrainian forces successfully achieved this goal, though the situation in Kursk remains challenging.
Ukrinform
Posted on 3/14/25 at 5:27 pm to cypher
I don’t know why Trump would beg Putin to hold their fire. He now looks bad.
No way Putin doesn’t attack.
No way Putin doesn’t attack.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 5:59 pm to cypher
I thought the body double conspiracy theory was just a joke... but
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 3/14/25 at 6:17 pm to Lee B
Posted on 3/14/25 at 6:42 pm to Lee B
Those two photos look like the same guy to me. I’ve seen others where there was more of a doubt tbh.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 6:43 pm to John Barron
Im very sorry the US ever got involved in this and caused all this misery and death.
Ukraine should have come to the table 100s of thousands of deaths ago.
Now they have no negotiation tools left none.
They should never have ventured into Mother Russia.
Posted on 3/14/25 at 7:09 pm to John Barron
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