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Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:06 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:08 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:09 pm to Lee B
quote:
But an insurrection is not necessarily a full-time job... you just go about your life and take advantage of situations for sabotage, etc. Or just aide those who are doing things with info, etc. What the US went through in Vietnam... It's what makes occupations basically untenable in this day and age.
I know you want to believe in a Ukrainian insurrection in case of a a Russian victory in this war. But I’m sorry, looking at matters objectively, I don’t see how they could sustain one on a sufficient level to drive Russia back out.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:29 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
He typed as Putin is literally accepting the proposal for ceasefire now lol
Posted on 3/13/25 at 6:34 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
This thread is 1000% better when trolls are spamming it with 50 twitter links a day.
Speak of the propagandist and he shall appear.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 7:18 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Man. This thread is 1000% better when trolls are spamming it with 50 twitter links a day.
Edited: this thread is 1000% better when trolls aren’t spamming.
Messed up kind of an important word.
I took it as sarcasm and got what you meant
Posted on 3/13/25 at 7:44 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know you want to believe in a Ukrainian insurrection in case of a a Russian victory in this war. But I’m sorry, looking at matters objectively, I don’t see how they could sustain one on a sufficient level to drive Russia back out.
It was a foregone conclusion back when this was supposed to be over in 3 days in 2022...
not to necessarily drive them out alone, but as fractures in insurgencies all over Russia... the North Caucuses, Georgia, even Belarus if they thought things weakened enough... the Tajikstan nationals who've been making terrorist attacks?
FOREIGN AFFAIRS: The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency
Russia’s Invasion Could Unleash Forces the Kremlin Can’t Control
February 25, 2022
(I don't still have a subscription to that site, but it was in my bookmarks from back then)
RAND: Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?
Apr 6, 2022
But how would Russia contain a population of around 30,000,000 people?
How many troops would that require to sit there and subdue them?
The more brutal they are in that, the more resistance they create...
I know Putin plans to appoint a Lukashenko-like figure to "rule" Ukraine, but he got one elected and that didn't work out... and Luka was elected as a populist reformer labor heri who switched into a Putin puppet later... the older Belarusian population still likes and supports him, the younger population has elected other people (though the results were ignored and fixed) and there's a bubbling insurgency there...
So, will Ukrainians just ignore what their lives were like before and be happy as Russian subjects? Happy to inform on and brutalize their fellow citizens?
And if troops are concentrated there, does that mean they are moved from other potential insurgent areas?
Posted on 3/13/25 at 8:07 pm to Lee B
and... we are talking about Ukraine, a country with a LONG tradition of insurrection!
Bandera's Ukrainian nationalists, who Putin used as an excuse for the invasion to begin with...
The Maidan Revolution!
Part of Putin's miscalculation was that he was told the decade-long Psy Ops he'd paid for had worked, and the population would "embrace Russia as Liberators." Those Psy Ops seems to have worked on a lot of Americans, I'll give him that...
Bandera's Ukrainian nationalists, who Putin used as an excuse for the invasion to begin with...
The Maidan Revolution!
Part of Putin's miscalculation was that he was told the decade-long Psy Ops he'd paid for had worked, and the population would "embrace Russia as Liberators." Those Psy Ops seems to have worked on a lot of Americans, I'll give him that...
Posted on 3/13/25 at 8:57 pm to John Barron
I called this week's ago about Kellogg being out
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Posted on 3/13/25 at 8:59 pm to Lee B
ISW Update March 13 2025
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine recently agreed upon in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and offered an alternative proposal that undermines US President Donald Trump's stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Putin is offering an alternative ceasefire agreement that is contrary to the intentions and goals of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal.
Putin's envisioned ceasefire agreement would grant Russia greatly disproportionate advantages and set conditions for the Kremlin to renew hostilities on terms extremely favorable to Russia.
Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war.
Russian forces continue to clear Ukrainian forces from Sudzha and its environs as Russian troops advance closer to the border in Kursk Oblast slowed on March 13 compared to recent days.
Russian milbloggers theorized on March 13 that Russian forces may launch an organized offensive operation into northern Sumy Oblast in the coming weeks and months and may also attack into Chernihiv Oblast — in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 12 statements.
Kremlin officials continue to use narratives similar to those that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasions of Ukraine to set informational conditions to justify future aggression against NATO member states.
Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW) in violation of international law.
Russia will likely expand its permanent military basing in Belarus to enhance Russia’s force posture against NATO’s eastern flank.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Siversk, and Toretsk.
Russia continues its crypto-mobilization efforts against the backdrop of US efforts to start the negotiation process to end the war.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 9:04 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Trump cutting off Russian oil from Europe. It boggles my mind Europe has been buying oil from Russia all this time.
Europe will just have to buy Russian Oil from other sellers like India at higher prices. If you were to truly take the Russia Oil Supply off the Market you would see a significant hike in Oil prices. That's why it was not done before. I believe a CBS article even acknowledged that fact. Lots of governments around the World have lost elections because of inflation and higher prices. They will avoid that at all cost.
This post was edited on 3/13/25 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 3/13/25 at 9:12 pm to John Barron
Can you please repeat that in the form of a Twitter embed? I’m confused at this text strategy of the new operator of the John Barron account.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 9:14 pm to Lee B
quote:
and... we are talking about Ukraine, a country with a LONG tradition of insurrection!
I didn’t say there would be no insurrection. I said there would not be one capable of ejecting the Russians if the war keeps going to the point the Ukrainian army collapses and Russia annexes the entire country.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 9:17 pm to John Barron
quote:
Europe will just have to buy Russian Oil from other sellers like India at higher prices. If you were to truly take the Russia Oil Supply off the Market you would see a significant hike in Oil prices. That's why it was not done before. I believe a CBS article even acknowledged that fact. Lots of governments around the World have lost elections because of inflation and higher prices. They will avoid that at all cost.
You don’t have to take it all the way off the market. All you have to do is drive the price of oil down sufficiently to where Russia can’t make enough money to maintain their economy.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 9:24 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
You don’t have to take it all the way off the market.
If you find a way to totally eliminate Russia getting paid for their oil you would be effectively taking it off the Market and that would effect global supply and increase the price.
"Trump Tightens Sanctions on Russian Oil, Gas, and Banking – CBS
The Trump administration is imposing additional restrictions on Russia’s oil, gas, and banking sectors, CBS reports. These measures will make it more difficult for other countries to purchase Russian oil, potentially disrupting global markets and leading to higher prices.
According to CBS, the White House is using these tighter sanctions as leverage to push Russia into accepting a proposed 30-day ceasefire. However, the report clarifies that Trump has not introduced entirely new sanctions against Russia. Instead, the stricter measures stem from the expiration of exemptions that were originally implemented during Biden’s presidency.
One key exemption expired today—a special license issued in January that allowed foreign companies to process payments for Russian oil through sanctioned Russian banks. Trump chose not to extend this license, effectively making it harder for Russian oil to be sold internationally."
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 3/13/25 at 9:57 pm to John Barron
quote:
If you find a way to totally eliminate Russia getting paid for their oil you would be effectively taking it off the Market and that would effect global supply and increase the price.
You’re not understanding me. You don’t have to eliminate Russia from getting paid for their oil. You just have to lower the price of oil to where is lower than what Russia needs to support its economy. The thing about Russia is their economy is heavily reliant on oil prices. But their oil industry is also highly inefficient. When oil prices are high, the Russians flourish. When the price of oil is low, the Russians hurt.
Look back at the collapse of the Soviet Union. One of the key factors in driving the USSR into collapse was the precipitous fall in the price of oil in the 1980s after the highs of the 1970s. See the chart below…
Note how the price of oil skyrocketed from the mid 60s to the end of the 70s then through the 80s oil was in a free fall. This devastated Soviet economy.
If the West wants to bring Russia to heel, then every Western country should have, for the past three years, been adopting economic, energy, and environmental policies geared toward putting downward pressure on oil prices. Along with this, diplomatic efforts to encourage the other oil producers help in bringing the price of oil as low as possible. Production itself isn’t enough to bring the price down. We’re pumping out record levels of oil. But investors are afraid to put more money in exploration and growth of oil refineries due to government hostility toward “fossil fuels” It also requires clear signals from governments that investment in exploration and growth of oil refineries is a good longterm investment.
The West has had three years to do something and so far they’ve done nothing. That’s why this war is still going and why Ukraine is getting closer and closer everyday to losing it.
This post was edited on 3/13/25 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:19 pm to Lee B
not arguing with anybody, here... just found a bunch of stuff bookmarked from when this started and rereading it, thought some might be interested...
Atlantic Council: Vladimir Putin has almost no chance of successfully occupying Ukraine
March 16, 2022
Ukrainians are highly unlikely to support a Russian occupation. Ukrainians in Kherson and Melitopol began actively protesting against Russian occupation almost immediately after their cities fell. Support for the invasion is negligible outside of the pro-Russian enclaves in the eastern Donbas. Lack of popular support and active, widespread animosity towards the occupiers generally correlates with failed occupation.
Russia almost certainly will not be able to establish a puppet government that Ukrainians will view as legitimate. There is little chance Ukrainians will flock to recruiting stations to serve in a pro-Russian paramilitary police force or army. Absence of support means that ill-prepared Russian soldiers will have to provide governance and security for the entire occupied area. Active opposition to Russian occupation also portends the emergence of a debilitating insurgency.
Meanwhile, insurgents will benefit from sanctuary and strong foreign support. In this study of 89 historical insurgency cases, the presence of an insurgent sanctuary strongly correlated with insurgent victory. If insurgents have a safe place to mobilize, rest, recruit, and train their forces, it is effectively impossible to wipe them out. In all likelihood, Ukrainians will be able to operate out of western Ukraine for years or, if necessary, decades.
...
Atlantic Council: Vladimir Putin has almost no chance of successfully occupying Ukraine
March 16, 2022
Ukrainians are highly unlikely to support a Russian occupation. Ukrainians in Kherson and Melitopol began actively protesting against Russian occupation almost immediately after their cities fell. Support for the invasion is negligible outside of the pro-Russian enclaves in the eastern Donbas. Lack of popular support and active, widespread animosity towards the occupiers generally correlates with failed occupation.
Russia almost certainly will not be able to establish a puppet government that Ukrainians will view as legitimate. There is little chance Ukrainians will flock to recruiting stations to serve in a pro-Russian paramilitary police force or army. Absence of support means that ill-prepared Russian soldiers will have to provide governance and security for the entire occupied area. Active opposition to Russian occupation also portends the emergence of a debilitating insurgency.
Meanwhile, insurgents will benefit from sanctuary and strong foreign support. In this study of 89 historical insurgency cases, the presence of an insurgent sanctuary strongly correlated with insurgent victory. If insurgents have a safe place to mobilize, rest, recruit, and train their forces, it is effectively impossible to wipe them out. In all likelihood, Ukrainians will be able to operate out of western Ukraine for years or, if necessary, decades.
...
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:24 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
You just have to lower the price of oil to where is lower than what Russia needs to support its economy.
I get what you are saying. My point is you don't lower oil prices by taking the Russian oil supply off the market. That will raise oil prices. The Russian Oil Supply never left the Market, it just got moved around to different countries like India and they sold it to Europe. If the Russian Oil Supply would leave the Market. Oil Prices would rise not fall.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:44 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
If the West wants to bring Russia to heel, then every Western country should have, for the past three years, been adopting economic, energy, and environmental policies geared toward putting downward pressure on oil prices. Along with this, diplomatic efforts to encourage the other oil producers help in bringing the price of oil as low as possible. Production itself isn’t enough to bring the price down. We’re pumping out record levels of oil. But investors are afraid to put more money in exploration and growth of oil refineries due to government hostility toward “fossil fuels” It also requires clear signals from governments that investment in exploration and growth of oil refineries is a good longterm investment.
This reminded me of this, which I read in January...
Forbes: 2025 U.S. Oil Outlook: Don’t Count On A ‘Drill Baby Drill’ Mentality
The November election brought optimism to many oil producers who felt hamstrung by the Biden Administration’s policies. Even Biden’s ban on offshore drilling is expected to be challenged or changed when Trump is sworn in. However, administrations can only do so much when it comes to global supply and demand dynamics. In fact, they can usually do little in the big picture; and the big picture is that there is probably going to be more supply coming online in 2025 than demand to meet it. Therefore, U.S. upstream producers are not planning on blowing their budget on aggressive drilling plans, no matter what Trump says, especially considering the lukewarm pricing environment that the market foresees. In addition, the U.S.’ shale dominance may be headed towards inevitable decline. There’s a lot to consider, so let us jump in.
...
So there's projected to be a glut of oil on the global market, and less demand... so that will push prices down, which should be good for hurting Russia...
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