re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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100% truth. If they choose not to settle now that are signing their death warrant. And if Trump pulls out they will collapse in 6 months or less.

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The only part I’m not certain about is the timing of how much longer Ukraine can hold out. I say that because we don’t have reliable information on Ukraine’s casualties. They downplay them while Russia overstates them. But that’s standard for countries at war to do and is to be expected from both sides.

Six months sounds like a reasonable guess though.

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ETA: and no amount of aid, be it money, ammo, tanks, planes, missiles, etc from the West, can change the mathematics of the manpower issue Ukraine faces. In fact all Putin has to do is take a realistic look at the number of troops Ukraine loses monthly, factor in the dwindling number of new troops Ukraine can raise, and he can easily figure out how much longer it will be before the collapse of Ukraine will happen.

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That is obvious to anyone that looks at reality. Those are the hard numbers and facts. Hard to see why anyone can't see this.

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Six months sounds like a reasonable guess though.

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Lack of intelligence and available inventory. If they don't settle and Trump walks it is going to get ugly.

And then the sky screamers can all start blaming Trump even though they ignore the fact that Biden had 3+ years to prevent this, put Ukraine in a strong position for negotiations or settle it.

This is not Trump's war. He didn't start it and its not his failed policies that got us to the point that we are now. But he is stuck with the mess.

He needs to remove this albatross and focus on what got him elected.

He will eventually have to deal with that disaster in the Middle East also.

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You were among the first to accurately call this a stalemate. No more in your eyes?

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The thing about a stalemate is they’re usually broken all of sudden. Look at the Western Front in WWI. From the fall of 1914 until the summer of 1918 it saw little movement. Really the biggest movement during that time was when the Germans launched their “Kaiser” offensives in Spring 1918. But the German push eventually petered out and the stalemate held. It wasn’t until the fall of 1918 that the German Army began to disintegrate due to the fact the Allies were pumping more and more men into the meat grinder while Germany had reached the end of its strength from a manpower standpoint.

And when that collapse started, the German High Command was powerless to stop it. They recognized the war was lost and sued for peace. Had they not done that in Nov. 1918, the Allies would have swept into Germany at least as far as the Rhine.

If I were to compare where this war is in WWI terms, I’d say we’re in early summer 1918. The Ukrainian Army is being pushed back, but can still sustain a cohesive front. In other words, it still has the appearance of a stalemate. But that appearance is a bit deceptive. The reason I say that is the Russians are fully aware the Ukrainians can’t continue to sustain its losses much longer while Russia can.

And as casualties continue day after day, Ukraine’s strength is slowly being sapped down. Barring a peace agreement, their strength will continue to wane until it finally breaks in the same way the Imperial German Army broke in the fall of 1918.

The only question is will the leaders in Ukraine sue for peace before that inevitable collapse comes? The answer to that question will decide if there is still an independent Ukraine at the end of this war.

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The thing about a stalemate is they’re usually broken all of sudden. Look at the Western Front in WWI. From the fall of 1914 until the summer of 1918 it saw little movement. Really the biggest movement during that time was when the Germans launched their “Kaiser” offensives in Spring 1918. But the German push eventually petered out and the stalemate held. It wasn’t until the fall of 1918 that the German Army began to disintegrate due to the fact the Allies were pumping more and more men into the meat grinder while Germany had reached the end of its strength from a manpower standpoint.

And when that collapse started, the German High Command was powerless to stop it. They recognized the war was lost and sued for peace. Had they not done that in Nov. 1918, the Allies would have swept into Germany at least as far as the Rhine.

If I were to compare where this war is in WWI terms, I’d say we’re in early summer 1918. The Ukrainian Army is being pushed back, but can still sustain a cohesive front. In other words, it still has the appearance of a stalemate. But that appearance is a bit deceptive. The reason I say that is the Russians are fully aware the Ukrainians can’t continue to sustain its losses much longer while Russia can.

And as casualties continue day after day, Ukraine’s strength is slowly being sapped down. Barring a peace agreement, their strength will continue to wane until it finally breaks in the same way the Imperial German Army broke in the fall of 1918.

The only question is will the leaders in Ukraine sue for peace before that inevitable collapse comes? The answer to that question will decide if there is still an independent Ukraine at the end of this war.

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Great post and spot on comparison.

I do wonder what the response would be from the west if Russia breaks through and it starts looking legitimately possible we could see Russian troops in the streets of Kyiv? What would our response be?

But I don't think it comes to that ultimately. Sanity will eventually prevail.

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That is obvious to anyone that looks at reality. Those are the hard numbers and facts. Hard to see why anyone can't see this.

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Those who don’t see it are either ignorant of how war works, or are allowing their emotions and political opinions to override their logic and reason.

If you look way back to the beginning of this tread, you’ll see I’ve always based my statements on logic and facts based on (1) my own military experience and (2) decades of deep study of military strategy and history.

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The answer to that question will decide if there is still an independent Ukraine at the end of this war.

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The choice for Ukraine is to cease to be an independent Ukraine today, or later...

My mind keeps going back to this event from my childhood...

BBC: The end of the Cold War
Defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan

It went on for 9 years... but insurgent groups wore down the Afghan military to collapse, and the Soviet military to giving up and withdrawing, Insurgent groups... trained and armed by the US and CIA, but this is David and Goliath stuff...

and it also is what inspired Al Qaeda to take on the Saudi government and the US.

and the parallel might be what just happened in Syria...

I don't doubt that Putin will be just as happy to kill every Ukrainian and reduce the entire country to rubble if it comes down to it and he can...

I don't see where the Ukrainian population complies with being erased, and being made into Russian captives. Especially since I can't see the Russians not being abusive if they gain control over the population at this point.

So can they keep it?

If Russia's economy doesn't collapse, will its demographics still collapse?

What happens when the ethnic Russians of Western Russia are outnumbered by the minorities in other areas?

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Lack of intelligence and available inventory. If they don't settle and Trump walks it is going to get ugly.

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It’s going to get ugly? You mean it’s going to get uglier, right? It’s really bad right now.

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And then the sky screamers can all start blaming Trump even though they ignore the fact that Biden had 3+ years to prevent this, put Ukraine in a strong position for negotiations or settle it.

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It’s not Trump’s fsilt although he did interject himself as some kind of super peace mediator. I don’t blame Biden for the war either, he just didn’t throw more aid to Ukraine in time. Even then it may not have mattered.

I blame Putin. He is the culprit. He is the one that coveted his neighbor. He wanted the war. I will never believe otherwise.

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My mind keeps going back to this event from my childhood...

BBC: The end of the Cold War Defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan

It went on for 9 years... but insurgent groups wore down the Afghan military to collapse, and the Soviet military to giving up and withdrawing, Insurgent groups... trained and armed by the US and CIA, but this is David and Goliath stuff...

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You can’t really expect the Ukrainians to conduct an insurrection in the manner the Afghans did against the Soviets. For starters, the rugged, mountainous terrain in Afghanistan lends itself to an insurrection. Also, in Afghanistan you have a religious fanatical element to draw upon, not just from Afghanistan itself, but the larger Islamic world as well.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is basically flat as a table and already is scraping the bottom of the barrel from a manpower standpoint with a high level of reluctance in its remaining military age population to lay down their life in defense of their country. Basically, the vast majority of those willing to fight for Ukraine have already stepped up to the plate. What’s left over isn’t much, certainly not enough to sustain a long insurrection.

Atlantic Council: A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics

Russia’s future will be characterized by a smaller population. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has virtually guaranteed that for generations to come, Russia’s population will be not only smaller, but also older, more fragile, and less well-educated. It will almost certainly be ethnically less Russian and more religiously diverse. While some might view diversity as a strength, many Russians do not see it this way. In a world with hordes of people on the move to escape war, persecution, poverty, and the increasing impact of climate change, xenophobic political rhetoric sells well.

Putin has spoken frequently about Russia’s demographic problems, beginning in his first months as president. Despite spending trillions of rubles on high-profile “national projects” to remedy the situation, population decline continued. Putin’s choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia’s demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe.

The demographic consequences from the Russian war against Ukraine, like those from World War II and the health, birth rate and life expectancy impact from Russia’s protracted transition in the 1990s, will echo for generations. Russia’s population will decline for the rest of the twenty-first century, and ethnic Russians will be a smaller proportion of that population. The ethnic and religious groups that embrace the “traditional family values” Putin favors are predominantly non-Russian.

United Nations scenarios project Russia’s population in 2100 to be between 74 million and 112 million compared with the current 146 million. The most recent UN projections are for the world’s population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent.

While Russia is hardly unique in facing declining birth rates and an aging population, high adult mortality, and infertility among both men and women, increasingly limited immigration and continuing brain drain make Russia’s situation particularly challenging. Population size is determined by a combination of natural factors—birth rates and life expectancy, along with the emigration-immigration balance. Putin’s war on Ukraine has undermined all the potential sources of population growth.

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