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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/11/25 at 8:32 pm to John Barron
Posted on 2/11/25 at 8:32 pm to John Barron
Posted on 2/11/25 at 8:35 pm to John Barron
Has Ukraine won the war yet? How's my fellow warmonger rinos and dems? 
Posted on 2/11/25 at 8:55 pm to NPComb
ISW Update Feb 11 2025
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's commitment to good faith peace negotiations with Russia and the particular importance of US military assistance to Ukraine's security.
Russian officials are reportedly attempting to constrain Russian milblogger reporting about the current frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to concerns that the West will pressure Russia into trading Russian territory for occupied Ukrainian territory.
Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery and reportedly struck Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast on the night of February 10 to 11.
The Russian State Duma voted to remove Russian State Duma deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) retired Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev from the Duma Defense Committee on February 11.
The Kremlin may be setting informational conditions for possible false flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition politicians living abroad in order to discredit Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.
Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Hulyaipole.
Russian regional authorities are reportedly reducing payments due to regional budget deficits for Russian soldiers who received minor injuries.
Posted on 2/11/25 at 9:04 pm to NPComb
Posted on 2/11/25 at 9:15 pm to John Barron
Posted on 2/11/25 at 9:16 pm to John Barron
Ukrainian monitor:
“As of now, the location is clear. These ballistic missiles are only detected on approach/descent to the target, so it is impossible to report where it is flying in advance.
So stay in shelters. The alarm was also declared after the explosions, because the radar detected the targets late. So it's better for everyone to be in shelters.”
They didn’t detect the launches, yikes.
“As of now, the location is clear. These ballistic missiles are only detected on approach/descent to the target, so it is impossible to report where it is flying in advance.
So stay in shelters. The alarm was also declared after the explosions, because the radar detected the targets late. So it's better for everyone to be in shelters.”
They didn’t detect the launches, yikes.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/11/25 at 9:50 pm to NPComb
quote:
Has Ukraine won the war yet? How's my fellow warmonger rinos and dems
The warmonger is the one who started this war and continues to prosecute it despite the cost benefit ratio being way out of whack.
And No. He hasn't won it yet. And I think it's pretty clear he never will. He had his chance in early 2022. He missed. Now it's just a matter of how much his miscalculation will cost all of humanity
Posted on 2/11/25 at 10:06 pm to No Colors
Posted on 2/11/25 at 10:28 pm to John Barron
Posted on 2/11/25 at 10:34 pm to John Barron
"President Trump is my hero. I’m so thankful for him. I’m forever indebted.”
- Marc Fogel
Twitter Link
10:35 PM

- Marc Fogel
Twitter Link
10:35 PM
This post was edited on 2/11/25 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 2/11/25 at 11:21 pm to SirWinston
Talk about a big failure. Germany industry is collapsing while Russia is expanding. Biden and Nuland were fricking idiots
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 2/11/25 at 11:53 pm to John Barron
Ukraine is run by a series of oligarchs/criminal syndicates
Klychko is an actual gangster though. He owns strip clubs and brothels in Ukraine. And if you’re in sex industry, it means you’re also tied up with the drug trade too.
Klychko is an actual gangster though. He owns strip clubs and brothels in Ukraine. And if you’re in sex industry, it means you’re also tied up with the drug trade too.
Posted on 2/12/25 at 12:35 am to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 2/12/25 at 1:04 am to John Barron
There are a few of things that occurred to me about this possible Rare Earths deal:
1) The US has spent around $200B, some of which hasn't reached Ukraine yet. Trump asked for a $500B repayment via the Rare Earths. This seems to put the US in a position to defend the agreement should Russia balk at this condition. I guess what I am trying to say is that this component of the deal ties the US very closely to Ukraine. How aggressive will Trump be in securing this $300B profit?
2) I can see the Ukrainian public not being a fan of this, and it having a negative impact on what we hear is already lousy morale. "Why am I fighting to protect America's investment?"
3) Ukraine was probably counting on selling those minerals to help fund the country's rebuilding. By giving $500B to the US, they are losing a significant funding source on top of losing the US helping to pay for any of the rebuilding. I don't think Trump will give $ to Ukraine to help with the reconstruction.
4) In the peace negotiation, if Putin stalls or doesn't want to really negotiate, Trump can now say he is going to give Ukraine whatever weapons it needs in order to protect our investment. It gives him some justification to escalate.
1) The US has spent around $200B, some of which hasn't reached Ukraine yet. Trump asked for a $500B repayment via the Rare Earths. This seems to put the US in a position to defend the agreement should Russia balk at this condition. I guess what I am trying to say is that this component of the deal ties the US very closely to Ukraine. How aggressive will Trump be in securing this $300B profit?
2) I can see the Ukrainian public not being a fan of this, and it having a negative impact on what we hear is already lousy morale. "Why am I fighting to protect America's investment?"
3) Ukraine was probably counting on selling those minerals to help fund the country's rebuilding. By giving $500B to the US, they are losing a significant funding source on top of losing the US helping to pay for any of the rebuilding. I don't think Trump will give $ to Ukraine to help with the reconstruction.
4) In the peace negotiation, if Putin stalls or doesn't want to really negotiate, Trump can now say he is going to give Ukraine whatever weapons it needs in order to protect our investment. It gives him some justification to escalate.
This post was edited on 2/12/25 at 1:10 am
Posted on 2/12/25 at 1:27 am to Chromdome35
Based on direct statements from President Trump, Ukraine would be expected to "pay back" $500 billion in resources. This was not framed as a trade of new weapons for resources, but rather, as Trump put it, "We are going to have all this money, and I want it back." Meanwhile, National Security Advisor Waltz has stated that Europe will be fully responsible for Ukraine’s security, saying security guarantees are "squarely" a European issue. Additionally, Pete Hegseth confirmed there will be no U.S. boots on the ground.
Ukraine’s main problems right now are:
- A shortage of infantry
- Organizational inefficiencies
The leading cause of casualties on both sides in 2024 and 2025 were drones: "bomb-dropping drones" and FPV kamikaze drones - which the U.S. does not supply. Most drones are acquired through donations, direct unit purchases, Ukrainian funds, or foreign loans and investments. The U.S. does not directly provide these drones. For the cost of one U.S.-supplied Switchblade 300 loitering munition, Ukraine could buy approximately 55–80 FPV drones, which would be far more effective.
For months, our team has received reports of personnel transfers from air defense, electronic warfare, anti-tank, artillery reconnaissance, and drone units into infantry roles. Some units have been ordered to transfer 50% of their personnel into infantry. In certain cases, Western-supplied equipment is not being fully utilized because trained personnel have been reassigned. In this context, adding more overpriced Abrams tanks or Switchblades does little to solve the problem.
Yes, Ukraine still needs key systems like HIMARS missiles, artillery shells, intelligence data, Starlink, and other critical assets. But none of this justifies a $500 billion "payback," making the proposed deal a terrible one for Ukraine. Without solid security guarantees, like NATO or U.S. boots on the ground - the war cannot be stopped.
Paper guarantees from the U.S. hold little value, as the Budapest Memorandum has already shown. If Europe is expected to provide Ukraine’s security, why should Ukraine make a deal with the U.S. at all? Why not deal directly with Europe on security and resources instead of involving an overpriced middleman? Right now, there are far more questions than answers, but one thing is clear: Washington has no real plan. The current proposals don’t position the U.S. as a strategic counter to Russia - instead, they suggest Russia will retain occupied territories, and get sanctions relief, while Ukraine gets pillaged by Trump.
Ukraine’s main problems right now are:
- A shortage of infantry
- Organizational inefficiencies
The leading cause of casualties on both sides in 2024 and 2025 were drones: "bomb-dropping drones" and FPV kamikaze drones - which the U.S. does not supply. Most drones are acquired through donations, direct unit purchases, Ukrainian funds, or foreign loans and investments. The U.S. does not directly provide these drones. For the cost of one U.S.-supplied Switchblade 300 loitering munition, Ukraine could buy approximately 55–80 FPV drones, which would be far more effective.
For months, our team has received reports of personnel transfers from air defense, electronic warfare, anti-tank, artillery reconnaissance, and drone units into infantry roles. Some units have been ordered to transfer 50% of their personnel into infantry. In certain cases, Western-supplied equipment is not being fully utilized because trained personnel have been reassigned. In this context, adding more overpriced Abrams tanks or Switchblades does little to solve the problem.
Yes, Ukraine still needs key systems like HIMARS missiles, artillery shells, intelligence data, Starlink, and other critical assets. But none of this justifies a $500 billion "payback," making the proposed deal a terrible one for Ukraine. Without solid security guarantees, like NATO or U.S. boots on the ground - the war cannot be stopped.
Paper guarantees from the U.S. hold little value, as the Budapest Memorandum has already shown. If Europe is expected to provide Ukraine’s security, why should Ukraine make a deal with the U.S. at all? Why not deal directly with Europe on security and resources instead of involving an overpriced middleman? Right now, there are far more questions than answers, but one thing is clear: Washington has no real plan. The current proposals don’t position the U.S. as a strategic counter to Russia - instead, they suggest Russia will retain occupied territories, and get sanctions relief, while Ukraine gets pillaged by Trump.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 2/12/25 at 1:38 am to John Barron
Posted on 2/12/25 at 3:35 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Ukraine was probably counting on selling those minerals to help fund the country's rebuilding
If i were Trump that's how I would describe it. I would use $300B of frozen Russian foreign reserves to pay back the US and EU. And then let Ukraine use its mineral wealth plus Russian reparations to build itself back.
To a great extent the Donbas is completely destroyed already. It has taken 10s of millions of artillery rounds. Im not sure it's worth rebuilding to either side.
Look at portions of NE France that have fewer people in them today than they did in 1918. Once the farm land is poisoned by cordite and shell fragments and unexploded ordnance it's literally never worth putting back into production. Huge parts of Eastern Ukraine will be wilderness for hundreds of years. (And ironically a lot of that area ties directly into the Chernobyl exclusion zone which essentially just increases its scope). Between the USSR and Russia's incompetence and disregard for life over the past 40 years, significant portions of Ukraine are worthless.
Posted on 2/12/25 at 4:35 am to Lee B
quote:
It is enforced by the Administrative branch. If the Administrative Branch refuses to acknowledge the checks and balances of the Judicial and Legislative Branches we have a Constitutional crisis.
In this scenario, you are Abby Phillip and I am Scott Jennings.
Scott gets it. Abby doesn't.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Twitter Link
Jennings responded to the moves by the district court judges on "News Night with Abby Phillip" Monday, saying, "I think there’s a difference between saying whether you’re complying with the law, and then you have these individual district court judges setting, effectively, broad federal policy that is specifically reserved for the president of the United States. I think we do have a constitutional crisis, and it’s being caused by these judges."
"What are you talking about?" Phillip doubtfully asked.
"They’re not here to tell us how to spend the money. They’re not here to set broad federal policy. That is the president’s job, as elected by the people," Jennings replied.
"These judges are supposed to be settling discrete, specific matters, not policy setting. I think [Vice President J.D.] Vance is right," he added.
Vance, who is a Yale Law School graduate, posted Sunday on social media platform X, "If a judge tried to tell a general how to conduct a military operation, that would be illegal. If a judge tried to command the attorney general in how to use her discretion as a prosecutor, that's also illegal.
"Judges aren't allowed to control the executive's legitimate power."
Jennings argued, "It is the executive branch’s job to figure out how to spend money, once it is appropriated by Congress." .
Former New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu agreed, saying, "The court cannot say, 'You have to spend these dollars today.'"
CNN legal analyst Elie Hong soon jumped in the fray, asking Jennings, "If a district court judge rules in a way that the president dislikes, should the president listen, or should the president defy?"
"If a district court judge tries to usurp the authority of the chief executive of this country, he should absolutely defy it," Jennings answered.
Sununu again concurred, saying, "You just can’t compel the executive branch to spend the dollars. You can’t do that."
Philip then waded in, calling Jennings's position "bizarre." She questioned, "When the court says, 'Congress ... appropriated this money, you must unfreeze it while we litigate this,' why can’t Trump comply with that?"
"So you’re saying a judge should decide how and when money is spent for years and not the president of the United States?" Jennings responded to Phillip.
"Scott, let me explain it a little bit more slowly," she answered somewhat mockingly.
"You don’t have to talk to me like that," Jennings retorted. "I have a position on this and you have an opinion. We can disagree."
"Listen to me, because you’re not listening, and you’re making claims that are not connected to the facts," Phillip continued in a berating tone.
"Maybe you are," Jennings fired back.
He then proved he was listening by restating her position that a district judge should be able to say, "So while we litigate this, and I'm a judge, and I’m in charge of the executive branch and you’re not?"
"Forget it. I totally disagree," Jennings said.
Jennings certainly did not deserve the treatment Phillip gave him.
Who knows? Maybe she thinks she's intellectually superior to Jennings as a graduate of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. But he is a former fellow there, as well as at the University of Chicago.
Further, Jennings served in public affairs positions in George W. Bush's White House and has decades of experience in politics as a reporter and working on campaigns.
Jennings knows where he stands, and he rightfully did not allow Phillip to talk down to him.
Link to full story
Posted on 2/12/25 at 5:00 am to Chromdome35
quote:
There are a few of things that occurred to me about this possible Rare Earths deal:
1) The US has spent around $200B, some of which hasn't reached Ukraine yet. Trump asked for a $500B repayment via the Rare Earths. This seems to put the US in a position to defend the agreement should Russia balk at this condition. I guess what I am trying to say is that this component of the deal ties the US very closely to Ukraine. How aggressive will Trump be in securing this $300B profit?
2) I can see the Ukrainian public not being a fan of this, and it having a negative impact on what we hear is already lousy morale. "Why am I fighting to protect America's investment?"
3) Ukraine was probably counting on selling those minerals to help fund the country's rebuilding. By giving $500B to the US, they are losing a significant funding source on top of losing the US helping to pay for any of the rebuilding. I don't think Trump will give $ to Ukraine to help with the reconstruction.
4) In the peace negotiation, if Putin stalls or doesn't want to really negotiate, Trump can now say he is going to give Ukraine whatever weapons it needs in order to protect our investment. It gives him some justification to escalate.
Trump has Cargo Pants by the balls.
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