re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Does the Triple Entente meet your qualifications?

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It raises an interesting point, with the obvious caveat "To the victors go the spoils ... and the history books."

Relative to the discussion of "defense" here, it is worth noting the Triple Alliance was founded on the premise of defense against French aggression. Indeed it was a defensive alliance for a quarter century ... until suddenly it wasn't. It is also worth noting, Russia was on the receiving side of that sudden conceptual flip of an alliance from "defensive" to declaring war.

Meanwhile, the Triple Entente was an alliance of established empires. At some point, the conceptual defense of an empire becomes a bit pharisaic, no?

Had WWI been settled in favor of the Central Powers, it's quite likely the history books would have focused on Entente colonial imperialism as the underlying cause. But Germany et al did not prevail. Imperialistic arrogance of the allies persisted as Wilson (since noted by historians as a wonderful progressive luminary) sold Germany down the river at Versailles, setting basis for WWII. Rinse and repeat.

Random tweets

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“In a modern world, a victory is only possible in a fast and short war,” Ruslan Pukhov, a prominent Russian military expert, wrote in a column about Syria for the Russian business newspaper Kommersant on Sunday.

“If you can’t secure your success in a military-political sphere, then eventually you will lose, no matter what you do.”

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??Russia cannot complete a series of new frigates without Ukrainian engines, so it was forced to sell them to India.

The engines for the frigates, which were planned to be used for new missile weapon samples, were made by the "Zorya"-"Mashproekt" plant in Mykolaiv. And without them, as it turned out, it is impossible to build Russian ships.

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Deputy General Designer Mikhail Shatsky, who was involved in the modernization of the Kh-59 cruise missiles and the development of new UAVs, was shot dead in moscow.

This was reported by russian oppositionist Nevzorov.

We are waiting for official confirmation

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Talking with putin "was a disappointment," but I would do it again, — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

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Drones attack the territory of the Kadyrov special police regiment in Grozny, Chechnya. There are wounded

The barracks are less than 4 km from the residence of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The same complex was attacked by a drone last Wednesday, December 4.

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Kadyrov's response to a Ukrainian drone strike on a barracks in Chechnya: 84,000 volunteers are now ready to go to the frontline if ordered.

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Russia is short of 200,000 cops. In some regions, there's a shortage of up to 26% of the required number. I wonder where they might be?

As a solution, they're suggesting scrapping internships altogether and basically turning it into an open-door department. And soon a million "SMO" veterans will start making their way home, and then things will get really interesting.

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The response to the Ukrainian missile strike on Taganrog will be delivered "at a time and in a manner deemed appropriate," stated presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

"I want to remind you of the clear and unequivocal statement made by the Ministry of Defense yesterday, where it was explicitly said that there will be a response".

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While Orbán continues to parrot peace slogans, he remains completely unreflective about how much Hungary supports the Kremlin's war machine by doubling down on purchases of Russian gas and oil and, more recently, deciding to pay more for Rosatom's Hungarian nuclear plant project.

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The U.S. House of Representatives passed the defense budget for 2025, but without a provision to extend the Ukraine Lend-Lease.

This was reported by Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova.

According to her, the document will be considered in the Senate next week. The Embassy of Ukraine continues to work actively to preserve the mechanism of the land-lease to support Ukraine.

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French President Emmanuel Macron will discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the deployment of a postwar peacekeeping force in Ukraine

The mission could involve 40,000 personnel and include troops from other countries, according to Politico.

It is worth noting that earlier, Moscow stated that the deployment of peacekeepers requires the consent of both sides in the conflict.

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We're finally there! A major Russian storage base is practically empty of any equipment! A thread on the newer footage of the 1295th Central Tank Reserve Base

First of all, this thread is almost more an analysis of a pile of junk than a storage base. And before anyone gets picky, I said a MAJOR storage base. You can see that several minor bases are already empty since a while ago.

If you look at the prewar footage from Google Earth, only the highlated parts still stored equipment, everything else were scrapped hulls.

As you can see, the stored equipment dropped pretty fast as soon as the war started

It mostly stored old stuff like T-54/55s, T-62, BMP-1s, BRDM-2s, and even BTR-50s! Tho also 136 T-80s.

And you can also note that some equipment was cannibalized, and the rest of scrapped armor was moved to the huge scrapyard in the eastern part of the base. They keep demolishing to atoms junk placed there.

By now, all that remains are maybe 3 tanks, 23 BMP-1s and 4 BRDM-2s. And even most of those might be scrap, as the snow makes it very difficult to be sure about the condition of their hulls.

Hell, if you take a closer look you can notice they even moved the two broken BTRs stored next to the ARVs and cannibalized BRDM-2s.

Another interesting thing is that, while more than half of the tanks stored here were the oldest types, many of them were kept in good condition with dry air storage systems

At the same time we barely see any T-55s in Ukraine, despite more than half probably removed from storage by now. I think they're instead being mostly converted to BTS-4 ARVs, as they're based in T-54/55 chassis. Otherwise, where would those come from?

In summary, this base is practically done. Maybe 1-2 more months until it is ENTIRELY depleted, but it doesn't really matter at this point. This is just a sign of a bigger problem for Russia. It may have been the smallest major storage base, but...

a major storage base nonetheless. The more bases are emptier, the more they have to pull out from other bases.

So far I've noticed a trend of about ~20 tanks and ~20-30 BMPs removed from each major storage base per month, and this will only accelerate until all that remains is cannibalized equipment.

And as Covert said, the 2456th/103rd is the next one this weekend. Stay tuned for more content!

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At some point, the conceptual defense of an empire becomes a bit pharisaic, no?

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What do you mean?

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Had WWI been settled in favor of the Central Powers, it's quite likely the history books would have focused on Entente colonial imperialism by the as the underlying cause.

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You need to read more rigorous history books.

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At some point, the conceptual defense of an empire becomes a bit pharisaic, no?

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You have to keep in mind the time period here. WW1 kind of drug the world kicking and screaming from one era into another... mainly warfare wise, but in other aspects as well.

The era of "empires" was on the downslide. Western leaders at the time were often students of the Roman Empire, learning about what they did well, what they didn't do well, the history of it. In Rome's later years there were huge defense issues, as it was so large but also less powerful than it had been.

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Yes.

I think that Russian combat power is about to decline as they face shortages of armor and artillery.

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How long have we be hearing this? Two years?

Is your source Times Radio?

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Correct, but TBD on if this happens. Like I said before, I don't think the west is going to let Zelensky refuse an otherwise decent deal if it includes him stepping down.

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Based on the latest.polls, I think most Ukrainians would give Zelensky to the Russians to get rid of him.

He is more unpopular than Dementia Joe or the Cackling drunk in Hawaii.

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Russian propaganda has made him the bad guy and Putin the hero. I don’t buy into it.

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How much Russian propaganda do you think Ukrainians are getting, honestly? And they are buying it despite what they are seeing with their own eyes? Are they dumb?

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You do agree that he wants Russia to win, right?

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He has said that it would be a better outcome for the US if they did (in his mind), so I would assume he wants them to win.

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We agree!!!!

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We actually don't. You said "Win at all costs". I want Ukraine to win. I don't want them to win at all costs. There is an important difference there conceptually in terms of how important you think the issue is. If he was as big of a Russia shill as you claim, he would want them to win no matter the cost. I don't think he does.

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And I want Ukraine to win no matter what it takes shirt if nukes, chemical weapons or issues with breaking the Geneva Accords, etc.

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So you'd drive the US into financial ruin for Ukraine if that is what it took? Why is Ukraine that important?