re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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is clear you didn't actually look at the video past the first 2 seconds to identify the types of vehicles on the flat cars.

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You’re right. I just looked at the still without watching the video

After watching the video it looks exactly your typical KBR logistics vehicles we used to supply troops all over Iraq.

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It's kind of a microcosm of Russia's military in general. I think they've been GROSSLY overestimated in their actual power and ability by western media

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Probably correct

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but they're floundering against a country the size of Texas.

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don’t be silly. Russia is winning this war on the ground by nearly every metric conceivable

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Putin probably went in with grand ideas of taking Ukraine in a week and expanding to take back the rest of the former USSR over time, and is slowly realizing his military won't cut it and is actually a paper tiger. I wish I could be a fly on the wall watching his every move behind the scenes, it has to be increasingly angry, desperate, and delusional.

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This is wishful thinking you’ve made up in your mind that you hope is true. You have zero idea what’s going inside his head

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This is wishful thinking you’ve made up in your mind that you hope is true. You have
zero idea what’s going inside his head

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Your entire post history throughout this thread has been wishful thinking in the opposite direction, thinly veiled with shitty humor mixed in to try to throw everyone off your weird fixation with "fighting the narrative" and passively supporting Russia.

You've gone SO far down the contrarian rabbit hole that you're now arguing against pretty obvious truths like Putin being delusional and angry

Think about that for a second.

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Your entire post history throughout this thread has been wishful thinking in the opposite direction, thinly veiled with shitty humor mixed in to try to throw everyone off your weird fixation with "fighting the narrative" and passively supporting Russia. You've gone SO far down the contrarian rabbit hole that you're now arguing against pretty obvious truths like Putin being delusional and angry

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Funny how you didn’t actually refute what I said and instead tried to portray me as some kind of Putin supporter.

Annnnd the FSB letter dropped last night. Don’t know how to link to it on Twitter but someone here will. IMHO It’s authentic and it’s glorious in unpacking the complete lack of planning that has gone into this invasion, it details why this is doomed to failure and will bankrupt Russia by June. It also speaks to the lack of success of the assassination squads. This is Bay of Pigs level planning. The analysts are being asked to plan after the fact in order for there to be Someone to blame for the fiasco. TLDR edit: Putin and a few hawks said LFG, couldn’t Get Z in 2-3 days, even if they did they’d need 500k occupation force, Russia would have fallen apart in the interim, this keeps up Russia will fall apart by June.

Link to the FSB Letter translation:

Twitter

I will assemble it in this post in a couple of minutes.

From the Igor Sushko twitter, guessing he knows Russian:

My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
"I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.

(Following is his translation this is the only Obtuse comment herein)

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.

All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.

For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) –

So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,

otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.

But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.

It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?

Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.

Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.

Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,

then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?

If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ???? (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.

Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how?

If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.

To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.

There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons:
1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.

2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.

Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.

With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)

They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.

But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.

Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.

Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.

Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.





ETA here is a Facebook link to the original Russian version if anyone speaks Russian.

Facebook

I would just add a few things I’ve heard, Putin is desperately afraid of everyone below him and always has been, his chosen oligarchs are offering luke warm support at best and some are outright refusing to financially support this war. Putin can’t have the news get out this is even happening in Russia. Putin needs cash to keep this going and people I know in the civil service are saying this is doomed to fail. Civil service generally is saying he’s run the country of Russia into a ditch.

Texting nuclear powered cruise missile if I remember correctly

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When do we get the estimates of Ukrainian losses and casualties?

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After we set Zelensky up with a remote govt and the Ghost of Kiev stops shooting planes long enough to report back.

I am curious if we raised our Defcon level any during all of this?