re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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You said in an earlier post that you thought commenting on the far future was not something you wanted to do.

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I said predicting. I am perfectly fine talking about and debating potential outcomes down the road.

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However, I would say that in 15-20 years after the end of the conflict Russia will still be weaker than it was on 2/22/22 and it’s strength on 2/22/22 was much less than everyone thought when it could not even defeat Ukraine at its strongest.

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Theres a lot of debate and nuance to be had here for sure. They claimed to produce like 2100 tanks last year, but we estimate that their capacity is like 200. So lets say they up their capacity by a bit (could be during the Ukraine war or after, doesn't really matter since we are projecting long term here) and they get to 250ish. Pumping out that many per year for a few decades will get to you a big number.

Those will also be new equipment, not 50 year old tanks retrofitted. So its hard to judge when or if they will be stronger or weaker than they were on 2/22/22 because the equipment and tech will be different then.

Do drones make tanks obsolete by then? How is their drone production? Lot of moving parts and you can really get lost in the weeds. I appreciate you having an actual discussion though.

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I have some questions for those in the know:

What is the number of replacement troops that Ukraine has taken in per month over the last 6 months/ year?

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I mean they just sent a summons to a double amputee.

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Theres a lot of debate and nuance to be had here for sure. They claimed to produce like 2100 tanks last year, but we estimate that their capacity is like 200.

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No. They claimed 2100 or so tanks delivered to the RAFs in 2023. The Russians claim 200 new tanks produced. Western experts believe the number of new tanks is significantly less than 200.

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So lets say they up their capacity by a bit (could be during the Ukraine war or after, doesn't really matter since we are projecting long term here) and they get to 250ish. Pumping out that many per year for a few decades will get to you a big number. Those will also be new equipment, not 50 year old tanks retrofitted. So its hard to judge when or if they will be stronger or weaker than they were on 2/22/22 because the equipment and tech will be different then.

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You’re assuming that the west doesn’t do anything in that time. Poland is upgrading its Armed Forces, Germany and France are designing the next generation of MBTs which will be in service in 20 years, the UK is upgrading its Challenger2s to Challenger3s multiple former Warsaw Pact countries that are now in NATO are replacing their old soviet tanks with MA1A2s and Leopard2s. The M1A2, K2 Black Panther, Challenger2 and Leopard2 are already superior to anything that Russia has. It will take Russia 10-20 years just to get back to where it was on 2/22/22 which was still inferior to NATO. That is just tanks. Russia’s state of the art S400 system has proven to be ineffective against western cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow and Scalp which were designed in the 1980s and are being withdrawn from frontline service with NATO militaries. Russia’s Migs and SUs are inferior to 4th generation western jets and Russia has produced a grand total of 10 operational 5th generation fighters in the last 20 years. Western drones are also vastly superior to Russian and Iranian drones.

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Do drones make tanks obsolete by then?

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Unlikely. Israel has not suffered the tank losses that Russia and Ukraine have sustained because their Trophy APS is better than anything Russia or Ukraine has. It has actually been able to detect and defend against drones as well as rpgs fired from a higher elevation which presents the same threat as a drone. Not to mention that drones would not be such a threat in Ukraine if either side could afford to take down the cell system. Without a functioning 4G or better cell network or satellite communications network how can drone operators guide the drones to attack?

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So then you have a potential Germany at the start of WW2 situation where you have a well-equipped army equipped by this new military industry that was started out of necessity, ran by a ruler who might actually have aims on reuniting the entire USSR or maybe even going further than that.

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I think the calculation is that they can prevent Russia from having a new military industry...

I think that is a foolish calculation. Iran, North Korea and China can be Russia's new military industry outsourced... it's a short ship ride up the Caspian Sea to get from Iran to Russia and no one can stop that...

I honestly think NATO should return Putin's "escalation" bluff.

And yes, I don't know wtf Obama was thinking... other than not having a nuclear Iran was more important than Crimea, and he wanted Russia on board for that Iran deal (which Trump foolishly scuttled, anyway, and according to a recent comment from an Iranian minister they might have nukes at the moment, almost certainly via Russia... because Mossad kills any Iranian physicist assigned to the program within a week).

Like the failed T-14 Armata?

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I think the calculation is that they can prevent Russia from having a new military industry...

I think that is a foolish calculation. Iran, North Korea and China can be Russia's new military industry outsourced... it's a short ship ride up the Caspian Sea to get from Iran to Russia and no one can stop that...

I honestly think NATO should return Putin's "escalation" bluff.

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Absolutely.

I think you're the only one here who understood that my point is that unless you finish them off, 'grinding down' Russia might be for naught anyway.

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I think the calculation is that they can prevent Russia from having a new military industry... I think that is a foolish calculation. Iran, North Korea and China can be Russia's new military industry outsourced... it's a short ship ride up the Caspian Sea to get from Iran to Russia and no one can stop that... I honestly think NATO should return Putin's "escalation" bluff. And yes, I don't know wtf Obama was thinking... other than not having a nuclear Iran was more important than Crimea, and he wanted Russia on board for that Iran deal (which Trump foolishly scuttled, anyway, and according to a recent comment from an Iranian minister they might have nukes at the moment, almost certainly via Russia... because Mossad kills any Iranian physicist assigned to the program within a week).

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Solid points all around. Have an upvote.

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I think the calculation is that they can prevent Russia from having a new military industry...

I think that is a foolish calculation. Iran, North Korea and China can be Russia's new military industry outsourced... it's a short ship ride up the Caspian Sea to get from Iran to Russia and no one can stop that...

I honestly think NATO should return Putin's "escalation" bluff.

And yes, I don't know wtf Obama was thinking... other than not having a nuclear Iran was more important than Crimea, and he wanted Russia on board for that Iran deal (which Trump foolishly scuttled, anyway, and according to a recent comment from an Iranian minister they might have nukes at the moment, almost certainly via Russia... because Mossad kills any Iranian physicist assigned to the program within a week).

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Also to add, though my hypothetical focused more on Russia re-arming its military, the source of the weaponry ultimately doesn't matter a whole lot.

We "grind Russia down" but don't finish them off -> Russia rebuilds its military through one avenue or another -> they end up stronger than they were this time because they aren't pulling 60+ year old equipment out of storage, plus who knows what kind of madman they have at the helm.

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How do you know this?
Seems these kind of drones they are using are things we had over 10 years ago.

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I probably worded that part of my comment poorly. Its not that we are lacking in that area necessarily. I'm just very bullish on drone use for military purposes and the future of the technology, so I think there is a lot of room to expand our capabilities there in the future.

Ukraine has struck some very important targets with relatively inexpensive drones. The Houthi's in Yemen were able to disrupt trade with cheap drones. Russia has had some success with drones.

I am biased though, I use drones for my work at times.

Theres a startup company called Anduril that is developing a product that can repel drones and could be mounted on something like a tanker. Pretty interesting stuff.