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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/3/24 at 1:22 pm to Pettifogger
Posted on 4/3/24 at 1:22 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
I think some want to find a basis for direct conflict with Russia and believe Russia will at least give them something to work with there even if Russia doesn't pursue a Ukraine-like confrontation with the US/a NATO state. Which to me aligns reasonably well with what Vol guy is suggesting.
This, and I think the language/logic some use in this threat is problematic because if applied to the fullest extent it would result in direct conflict between the US and Russia. And also that I don't think Putin has any aims on any NATO countries no matter what some Russian outlet spouts.
2
Posted on 4/3/24 at 1:31 pm to VolSquatch
Even if I concede he might, I'm interested in hearing the response to "ok but what if he truly doesn't"
My concern is that some won't even accept that hypo because it boxes them in too much.
My concern is that some won't even accept that hypo because it boxes them in too much.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 1:39 pm to cypher
quote:
Just another false premise.
If its false then we are just trying to bleed Russia dry, and using Ukrainian lives to do it.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:09 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Just another false premise.
If its false then we are just trying to bleed Russia dry, and using Ukrainian lives to do it.
Jake Sullivan pretty much said so when he said that US has been restricted Ukraine's use of western weapons since the start of the invasion.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:17 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
THEN - is this board content with the United States mostly moving on without some new front/effort of US involvement?
I can’t speak for the board, but after the war I suspect NATO will be stronger, and Russia will know that it can’t get away with invading their neighbors without paying a big price.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:18 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Then if you honestly believe that, why aren't you openly for boots on the ground to stop him now?
This is a painfully dim-witted take, and one you regurgitate on repeat
You don't need to boots on the ground, you just need to give Ukraine 155mm shells.
Putting boots on the ground likely leads to nuclear war. Giving Ukraine 155mm shells until Russia finally gives up is a much safer choice.
quote:
You either don't think its a real threat so you're being disingenuous and that talking point used to justify more Ukraine money is irrelevant, or you think Russia isn't capable anyway so again, why send more money/weapons?
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:20 pm to doubleb
quote:
I can’t speak for the board, but after the war I suspect NATO will be stronger, and Russia will know that it can’t get away with invading their neighbors without paying a big price.
Ok, and that's true even if it's in the aftermath of US support waning and Ukraine having to make major concessions to Russia as part of the conclusion of (most) hostilities?
I'm not disagreeing, just confirming that is your stance.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:32 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Putting boots on the ground likely leads to nuclear war. Giving Ukraine 155mm shells until Russia finally gives up is a much safer choice.
If this is such an ace-in-the-hole, why didn't we just do that to begin with?
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:37 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If this is such an ace-in-the-hole, why didn't we just do that to begin with?
Ukraine used 152mm artillery platforms. NATO weapons (155mm caliber) only started coming in the summer of 2022.
155mm weapons have better accuracy/range than Russian artillery. Ukraine destroyed a ton of weapon systems with counter-battery fire in 2022/2023. Now that they're shell-starved, they're retreating.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:38 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Ok, and that's true even if it's in the aftermath of US support waning and Ukraine having to make major concessions to Russia as part of the conclusion of (most) hostilities?
Yes. NATO will be stronger. Nations are putting up more of their resources plus they added two traditionally independent nations.
Ukraine loses but Russia loses too. In fact NC Tigah just said as much. Russia miscalculated and has lost resources, men and respect in the world community.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 2:39 pm to RuLSU
Speaking of shells for Ukraine. Estonia has found another 800,000 - 1,200,000 shells on the global market.
How is it that these tiny countries like Estonia and the Czech Republic can find 2 million shells to buy Ukraine in a matter of months? Also why weren't they doing it last year? Pay up Europe so that Ukraine can defend you from the big bad Russian bear.
quote:LINK
The offers we are aware of in the world cover all the calibers [needed by] Ukraine. These include 122 mm rockets for Grad [multiple launch rocket systems], 122 mm artillery shells for D-30 [Soviet-era howitzers], and then 152 mm and 155 mm shells. There's a variety to choose from.
With regard to the price, for the quantities in question, they fall between two and three billion euros (currently, the global market price for shells is around 2,500 euros. For two billion euros, this would amount to 800,000 shells; for three billion euros, 1.2 million shells – J.P.)
How is it that these tiny countries like Estonia and the Czech Republic can find 2 million shells to buy Ukraine in a matter of months? Also why weren't they doing it last year? Pay up Europe so that Ukraine can defend you from the big bad Russian bear.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 3:05 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Now that they're shell-starved, they're retreating.
Even when they had 155mm shells they couldn't ever make the type of gains Russia is making now.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 3:24 pm to WeeWee
quote:
How is it that these tiny countries like Estonia and the Czech Republic can find 2 million shells to buy Ukraine in a matter of months?
Hmm…. yeah I wonder
Posted on 4/3/24 at 4:03 pm to Philzilla
quote:
Philzilla
quote:
go volunteer
Doubt the Marine Corps or Ukraine need an old former Viet Nam combat grunt with a rare heart condition that's tried to kill him three times in the last year. But, if you're curious about the ground combat experience, sign up with the USMC as an 0311, or Army Rangers, and give it a go.
Which, unless in the best interest of these United States I don't casually recommend. Your human fellow combatants and friends don't die like in the movies. Neither do the Ukrainian children Putin is killing with no justification whatsoever.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 4:07 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I don't think Putin has any aims on any NATO countries no matter what some Russian outlet spouts.
How many countries has Russia invaded since the fall of the USSR?
How many times has NATO invaded Russia?
You don't have to believe it, but every bit of credible evidence points to Russia taking Ukraine, taking a few years to rebuild, then tackling their next target.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 4:47 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
That said, to keep giving at the level we have been or to increase it you MUST be convinced that Putin is a threat to NATO countries, and both myself and apparently our government doesn't see it that way. I think the "threat to Europe" argument is just a lazy cop out reason to send more aid from people who can't explain why we should be giving such large amounts to a country that isn't nearly as important to us as it is Russia.
The main issue with this is how small European armed forces have become outside of a few countries. From a numbers perspective this is a deficit that could be exploited early. NATO security hinges on our commitment and abilities.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 4:53 pm to YouKnowImRight
quote:
How many countries has Russia invaded since the fall of the USSR
How many times have they occcupied and annexed an entire country in that time frame?
Posted on 4/3/24 at 4:53 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Even when they had 155mm shells they couldn't ever make the type of gains Russia is making now.
The biggest movement of the war since March 2022 was when Ukraine retook a lot of land near Kharkiv.
But you don't seem to understand: Russia mined lands like crazy. It'll be years before those mines can be cleared. It'll also be incredibly difficult for either side to make meaningful gains.
As Ukraine gets those new 155mm shells from Croatia, you're going to see a lot of videos of Russian weapons getting blown up near the front. We'll go back to static front-lines. When the F-16s are in theater (May/June) we'll see more Russian defenses get blown up.
Neither side will have meaningful gains, IMO, in the near future.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 4:56 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
The main issue with this is how small European armed forces have become outside of a few countries. From a numbers perspective this is a deficit that could be exploited early. NATO security hinges on our commitment and abilities.
That is the case with small nations. However, there are a number of them. Only one has expeditionary capability, France.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 5:02 pm to RuLSU
quote:
The biggest movement of the war since March 2022 was when Ukraine retook a lot of land near Kharkiv.
So before they had 155s. And the actual lines hadn’t even formed yet.
quote:
Neither side will have meaningful gains, IMO, in the near future.
That seems likely
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