re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Well Europeans are pretty dumb so that makes sense. This war actually affects them so they should probably care more than I do.

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“Several hundred” confirmed kills????

If the kills were confirmed then how many are there? Shouldn’t there be a specific number, or are they just guessing?

And say if it is 400 then is that 400 out if a thousand attackers, ten thousand?

I’m not saying the attack wasn’t costly, I’m just asking for some facts and context.

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Prospects for a new mobilization in Russia and what to expect

Over the past week, Russian Telegram channels have begun to disperse the idea that a new wave of mobilization is being prepared in Russia. In particular, this was facilitated by the work of the State Duma regarding the introduction of amendments to a number of legal acts regarding mobilization and martial law in Russia. Against the background of what is happening, the domestic near-war party came to the conclusion that the “warming up of the population” had begun before the upcoming “Mobilization 2.0” (At the same time, the “first” mobilization was not legally completed). In this regard, we decided to clarify the prospects for a new recruitment of mobilized, which is predicted for the coming autumn, and also to highlight some of our thoughts:

1. Why might mobilization be required? Two sub-points can be singled out here: The first is a large-scale offensive by the RF Armed Forces in all directions. If we count the number of all Russian military formations located in the NVO zone, then there are not enough people for a full-fledged offensive. In this regard, in view of the circumstances that will be outlined in the second paragraph, the mobilization of a certain number of people will simply be necessary. The second sub-point is the rotation of those mobilized in 2022. Everything is more complicated here. There has been talk about the need for rotation for a long time, but at the same time it is necessary to understand that, first of all, it is necessary to change those mobilized who participate in hostilities, and are not engaged in “protecting puddles”. But this moment also has a minus - the new replenishment needs to undergo combat coordination and the necessary training, and those mobilized at the front already have combat experience and know how to work.

2. At the moment, there is an active recruitment for the service under the contract - advertising hangs on almost every corner, selection points and information posts have been created. The preliminary goal is to recruit several hundred thousand contract soldiers, including for staffing new military formations, about which Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently reported to Vladimir Putin. If the required number of contractors is recruited (we will not announce the figure, but at the moment about half of the required number has been collected), then mobilization 2.0 may not be required.

3. Not all mobilized are involved in the SVO in a full-fledged format. A huge number of mobilized fighters are engaged in the banal "protection of the puddle", that is, they simply sit out their pants, while receiving a good salary. Sending these individuals to participate in hostilities is quite possible for the implementation of a large-scale offensive by Russian troops. But even taking into account the number of "puddle guards" it is necessary to understand that there will be no parity with the number of enemy personnel - the grouping of the RF Armed Forces still remains in a smaller number.

When is Mobilization 2.0 possible?
Let us point out right away that the probability of a second wave of mobilization is 50 percent, that is, it will / will not, but at the same time it is necessary to assume approximate dates, based on the speed of adoption of amendments to regulatory legal acts. Our forecast is autumn 2023, approximately after September 15 (again, the probability is 50 percent, we remind you so that we are not included in the "visionaries" and "package openers" with which the near-military telegram is teeming).

Based on the above points, one should come to the following conclusion:
Mobilization 2.0 is possible, but there is no 100% guarantee that it will happen. At the same time, God protects the safe, so we advise potential mobilized to study military affairs, prepare equipment and be mentally prepared for the possible receipt of the summons.

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Extreme tension on the borders, between former USSR states and Moscow won’t affect us?

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Well I don’t think there’s any room for that kind of tension between major world powers anymore

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We shouldn’t just allow it to happen either based off the premise that none of this affects us directly.

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Have you heard of China?

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Why not?

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So the current, or I guess no deposed, president of Niger has never been very popular. He was a childhood friend of the last president and was considered the establishment guy. The west liked him. Most of the locals I talked to wanted the other guy. I can’t remember his name or even what his platform was. In any case the previous regime had him arrested on trumped up child trafficking charges and put him in jail for one day and then let him out. Under Nigérien law if you’ve ever been to prison you can’t run for president. From what I understand he still got a lot of write in votes during the election last year.

The Nigérien people mostly seem to want the French out. They even changed their anthem a few years ago to remove all references to their former French colonizers and heritage. Everyone I’ve talked to say they much prefer America to France. They say the French donate old shitty equipment and we give them the good shite. But they might just tell me that because I’m an American and I have the almighty USD.

I don’t remember seeing any Russians running around town in all my time there. Plenty of Chinese though and the occasional eastern bloc guy(they all seemed like shady gangster types to me).

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Let’s just let them do whatever they want and blow the world up.

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