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Posted on 7/16/23 at 10:12 pm to Obtuse1
I'm stating that the Brittney Spears video was not videoed on that bridge.
Posted on 7/16/23 at 10:20 pm to bikerack
quote:
Seeing reports on twitter that explosions were heard on the Crimean bridge to Russia (Kerch bridge) and traffic has been stopped. Rumor is that part of the bridge has collapsed near the 145th pillar.
Huge if true, though dependent on the cause and how significant the damage is.
I find it highly coincidental that there was a large UV attempt made at Sevastopol in the last 24 hours as well.
Posted on 7/16/23 at 10:38 pm to OutsideObserver
Posted on 7/16/23 at 10:41 pm to molsusports
If only none of the above was an option
Posted on 7/16/23 at 10:44 pm to OutsideObserver
Kerch bridge definitely confirmed as damaged though the extent is not yet know.
There is stuff going up everywhere on both sides of the information theatre and is looking like it is due to some form of strike as opposed to structural failure.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1680774084093702146
https://t.me/dva_majors/21320
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1680763079015923715
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1680776801092800514
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1680763992862785536
There is stuff going up everywhere on both sides of the information theatre and is looking like it is due to some form of strike as opposed to structural failure.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1680774084093702146
quote:
Telegram users living near the Kerch Bridge began reporting hearing an explosion at around 3 a.m. local time. The explosion was heard in Kerch and Taman.
https://t.me/dva_majors/21320
quote:
Crimean leader Sergey Aksyonov:
Traffic on the Crimean bridge stopped due to an emergency bridge in the area of the 145th pillar
It is noted that law enforcement agencies and all responsible services work on the spot.
The nature of the incident is not specified.
The preliminary nature of the incident indicates the use by the enemy of small non-crewing swimming equipment to undermine the supports of the Crimean bridge.
Explosions sounded around 3 a.m.
Report the death of two civilians. Russian President alerts on emergency on Crimean bridge, emergency Security Council expected
Crimean bridge:
It is reported that one span fell, another left the support. The bridge support is damaged.
There is no evidence of damage to the railway part of the bridge yet.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1680763079015923715
quote:
I have no idea how to count bridge spans but I counted them anyways and I this is where I reached 145. I say this with almost zero confidence. Alls I did was take a high res image of the bridge and count the spans.
Im asking someone else to count the bridge spans and check my work.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1680776801092800514
quote:
Per TASS, the Crimean ferry crossing service to Kuban has also been suspended.
The Russian Ministry of Transport suggests people travel to Crimea via Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1680763992862785536
quote:
Well, Ukraine hit the Kerch bridge - for real, this time. Putin’s apparently in a security meeting right now.
Damage is clearly visible from a distance.
There’s already video of dead and injured civilians. I won’t post it here, but it’s on the Slavyangrad telegram.
The big question (from a military perspective) is if Ukraine damaged the rail line or if they just hit the road span.
Based on what I can see I am guessing this was some kind of car bomb or sabotage, not a missile.
Posted on 7/16/23 at 10:49 pm to OutsideObserver
For an idea of how quickly this has caused problems transport wise even if only the road side.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1680760995331940352
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1680770032119283712
Taken on top of the recent slew of hits on supply dumps this is likely to make things quite difficult for Russia logistically depending on the extent of the damage.
Edit: Clarity
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1680760995331940352
quote:
Traffic build up on the Russian side of the Crimean Bridge can be seen on Google Maps.
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1680770032119283712
quote:
The Kerch Strait Bridge is a logistically significant object.
Russia will only have 1 ground supply line - the costal highway on the Sea of Azov - to sustain (or evacuate) its tens of thousands of troops in occupied Kherson & Crimea if UKR manages to degrade/destroy the bridge.
Taken on top of the recent slew of hits on supply dumps this is likely to make things quite difficult for Russia logistically depending on the extent of the damage.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/16/23 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 7/16/23 at 11:45 pm to OutsideObserver
Wagner's Grey Zone is taking a shot at Medvedev after he proclaimed doomsday on Ukraine if they took out the Kerch bridge on 17/7/2022.
https://t.me/grey_zone/19568
https://t.me/grey_zone/19568
quote:
You may have to kill Zaluzhny and Budanov again
Posted on 7/16/23 at 11:49 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Taken on top of the recent slew of hits on supply dumps this is likely to make things quite difficult for Russia logistically depending on the extent of the damage.
That bridge is Putin's pride. I'm surprised it is still standing as a supply route to Russian occupied Crimea.
Posted on 7/16/23 at 11:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
Saw a video where looks like 2 cruise missles hit it
Posted on 7/17/23 at 12:00 am to SugarAggie
quote:
Saw a video where looks like 2 cruise missles hit it
Got a link?
Most of the claims I have seen thus far are trending towards it being sea based UV's as there was a lack of any air defence prior to the explosions.
Still unclear on extent of damage - I have seen everything from a small section of a span collapsed, several spans collapsed, multiple holes on 2 spans, to an entire support collapsing.
Posted on 7/17/23 at 12:07 am to OutsideObserver
Posted on 7/17/23 at 12:08 am to OutsideObserver
How effectively could Russia resupply using the Azov? I don’t think it’s deep enough for large ships. Can Ukraine hit light shipping in the Azov?
Posted on 7/17/23 at 12:35 am to SugarAggie
Cheers, unfortunately nothing in the video indicates it was the Kerch bridge.
These were already linked via Reddit - posting for easier viewing. The car seen in one of them is the same one seen in other video/still images so no reason to doubt these at this point.
https://t.me/dva_majors/21353
These were already linked via Reddit - posting for easier viewing. The car seen in one of them is the same one seen in other video/still images so no reason to doubt these at this point.
https://t.me/dva_majors/21353
Posted on 7/17/23 at 3:52 am to OutsideObserver
Video and footage without watermarks.
Definite indicators of a blast from beneath the bridge by the looks of it rather than a missile strike and most sources are claiming USV's as the method used.
Doesn't look to be nearly as much damage as the previous strikes and Russia is claiming supports are fine (of course). Rail bridge does not appear to have been effected as there are reports trains have already resumed.
The below account seems to be a good one for following on this particular event as they are following it closely with good attention to detail across a range of sources.
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680822824133353475 - Video
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680830583008624640
Definite indicators of a blast from beneath the bridge by the looks of it rather than a missile strike and most sources are claiming USV's as the method used.
Doesn't look to be nearly as much damage as the previous strikes and Russia is claiming supports are fine (of course). Rail bridge does not appear to have been effected as there are reports trains have already resumed.
The below account seems to be a good one for following on this particular event as they are following it closely with good attention to detail across a range of sources.
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680822824133353475 - Video
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680830583008624640
Posted on 7/17/23 at 5:42 am to OutsideObserver
What Russian dolphins doing?
Like I said a few days ago:
Like I said a few days ago:
quote:
We need to invest more in Ukrainian biolabs. I can't wait until the Ukrainians figure out how to get giant squid to attack the Russian dolphins defending Sevastopol.
Posted on 7/17/23 at 5:56 am to GOP_Tiger
Here's a still from a video from a passenger this morning on the train (the rail bridge is obviously unaffected).
Posted on 7/17/23 at 5:59 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 July 2023
After being sacked as commander of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA) in Ukraine, General-Major Ivan Popov claimed that one of his key complaints had been about the lack of counter battery provision.
Russian ground forces survivability relies on effectively detecting Ukrainian artillery and striking against it, often with its force's own artillery. A key component of this approach is counter-battery radars, which allow commanders to rapidly locate enemy gun lines.
Russia is suffering from a worsening shortage of counter-battery radars, especially its modern ZOOPARK-1M. Only a handful of the originally deployed ZOOPARK fleet are likely to remain operational in Ukraine. Open-source footage showed another ZOOPARK being destroyed near the 58 CAA's area in early July 2023. The priority Popov apparently gave to this problem highlights the continued centrality of artillery in the war.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 July 2023
After being sacked as commander of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA) in Ukraine, General-Major Ivan Popov claimed that one of his key complaints had been about the lack of counter battery provision.
Russian ground forces survivability relies on effectively detecting Ukrainian artillery and striking against it, often with its force's own artillery. A key component of this approach is counter-battery radars, which allow commanders to rapidly locate enemy gun lines.
Russia is suffering from a worsening shortage of counter-battery radars, especially its modern ZOOPARK-1M. Only a handful of the originally deployed ZOOPARK fleet are likely to remain operational in Ukraine. Open-source footage showed another ZOOPARK being destroyed near the 58 CAA's area in early July 2023. The priority Popov apparently gave to this problem highlights the continued centrality of artillery in the war.
Posted on 7/17/23 at 6:16 am to tigeraddict
ISW July 16th Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.
Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers.
Teplinsky himself set the precedent for the acts of insubordination that are currently plaguing the Russian MoD.
The Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine.
The intensifying dynamic of insubordination among Russian commanders in Ukraine may prompt other commanders to oppose the Russian military leadership more overtly.
Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization.
The Russian veteran and ultranationalist communities appear to be readily defending the commanders’ insubordination by amplifying defeatist discussions that may have direct effects on Russian servicemembers’ morale.
The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine.
The apparent Russian chain of command crisis threatens to demoralize the wider Russian war effort in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made limited gains.
Kiriyenko’s role in this consolidation is notable given his increasing reach in the Russian federal government and prior connections to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and did not make confirmed advances.
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kreminna and made tactical advances.
Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian rear areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and reportedly advanced.
Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that some Chechen forces have deployed to the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and did not advance.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia border area and made limited gains.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed advances in the area.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge and did not claim any Russian or Ukrainian advances in the area.
Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of attempting an aerial and maritime drone strike against unspecified targets in the Black Sea near Sevastopol, Crimea overnight on July 15 to 16.
Russian “Lancet” drone (loitering munition) producer Zalo Aero Group announced the production of a new generation of drones with automatic targeting systems and the intention to expand production abroad.
A Ukrainian report indicates that Russian occupation authorities continue persecuting religious minorities in occupied Ukraine as part of a broader cultural genocide aimed at eradicating the Ukrainian national and cultural identity.
Wagner Group forces will reportedly integrate into the Russian-Belarusian Union State Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV).
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