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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:41 pm to
Posted by El Mattadorr
Member since Mar 2019
2374 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

Pretty impressive how you’re still posting

You’ll be 6 ft under soon

That's a little on the nose, isn't it?
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:41 pm to
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672464197966233600
quote:

BREAKING ?????

Footage of the arrival of the "Wagner" PMC at the headquarters of Russian Ministry of Defense.

Prigozhin puts forward the conditions that he needs Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff, otherwise he will continue to blockade Rostov and go to Moscow.

Posted by Eurocat
Member since Apr 2004
17348 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:41 pm to
Wagner troops saying goodbye to their families in the past 24 hours, "watch tv"

LINK

Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:43 pm to
quote:

However many troops Russia has in Ukraine, thats how many. If the supply spigot is fully turned off, all hell will break loose.

Rostov on Don is the center of gravity for Russia in Ukraine.

ETA: Clarity



Central and northern front units would likely be able to retreat to the Russian border and LNR/DNR, assuming they don't implode in potential fall out.

The southern front guys though would be screwed as Ukraine is unlikely to sit idly if things do go that badly and would drive to cut them off at Mariupol I would guess meaning their only means of easy retreat is via Crimea.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:43 pm to
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672373800359346176
quote:

Russian media:

"A source about the mood among St. Petersburg elites: 'When choosing between Putin and Prigozhin, Prigozhin is now the preferred choice. They support him.' "

Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:48 pm to
Southern Military District headquarters will at least have clean streets outside.



Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5992 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:48 pm to
This is one of the most bizarre things I’ve ever seen. My gut is telling me this is just too out there to be an organic occurrence.

What could possibly be the point of this as some type of grand spectacle/diversion who knows.

Imma keep watching.
Posted by AnotherWin4LSU
Member since Jun 2023
395 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:50 pm to
Has anyone noticed that Putin has not put out a statement or at least a picture of him being briefed on the other end of a very long conference table yet? When Ergodan was the target of a coup attempt he was sending out video messages and FaceTiming while he was flying to Istanbul.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:52 pm to
quote:

Russian media:

"A source about the mood among St. Petersburg elites: 'When choosing between Putin and Prigozhin, Prigozhin is now the preferred choice. They support him.' "


Sounds like they are very much trying to build the 1917 narrative.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5992 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:54 pm to
quote:

Has anyone noticed that Putin has not put out a statement or at least a picture of him being briefed on the other end of a very long conference table yet?


I am decidedly not a “Putin is going to die any minute” guy, but Putin being dead and Prig having that information before the public is one of the few fact patterns where what is happening makes any sense.
Posted by XenScott
Pensacola
Member since Oct 2016
4168 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:55 pm to
It’s a Clancy Novel happening in real-time.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:55 pm to
Go back to page 2920 and read my post on what I think could be going on. There is another post I made on page 2930.
quote:

What could possibly be the point of this as some type of grand spectacle/diversion who knows.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105476 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:57 pm to
If Prigozhin brings in the whole SMD on his side this shite just got a whole lot more real
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:59 pm to
quote:

Has anyone noticed that Putin has not put out a statement or at least a picture of him being briefed on the other end of a very long conference table yet? When Ergodan was the target of a coup attempt he was sending out video messages and FaceTiming while he was flying to Istanbul.


GOP_Tiger also commented on his visible absence.

If he doesn't appear today it runs the risk of snowballing, though it can be argued he wanted to get on top of the situation before appearing publically.

Also possible he may have been given an ultimatum, fled (Iran maybe?), or already been taken out of the picture and this is now the soft shuffle to a more palatable public face so the elites can wash their hands and avoid a more dramatic turn of events to retain their power.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:59 pm to
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672468948141391874
quote:

Yevgeny Prigozhin in Rostov:

“We lost huge amount of territories in Ukraine. The Russian losses in Ukraine are 3-4 times higher than reported by the Russian High Command. Up to 1000 casualties a day (KIA + WIA).”
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5992 posts
Posted on 6/24/23 at 12:03 am to
quote:

The more I think about this, my confidence level increases that Ukraine co-opted Wagner.


When the Russians were isolated across the dnipro, clearly with no real way out, I asked, mostly rhetorically, could that entire army just be offered EU residency and $50,000 to surrender, and would that be more cost effective than the actual siege.

As a practical matter your theory generally goes against my belief that the world is simpler than we think and run by dumber people than we can imagine. It’s just so hard for me to believe we could be watching a modern day Benedict Arnold covertly double crossing the Russians.

On the other hand, I’ve got nothing else to offer.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105476 posts
Posted on 6/24/23 at 12:05 am to
quote:

Also possible he may have been given an ultimatum, fled (Iran maybe?), or already been taken out of the picture and this is now the soft shuffle to a more palatable public face so the elites can wash their hands and avoid a more dramatic turn of events to retain their power.





This seems too chaotic to have been some kind of master plan. Prigozhin is taking his shot, the others are scrambling to react and Putin is AWOL for reasons to be determined.
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 12:09 am
Posted by El Mattadorr
Member since Mar 2019
2374 posts
Posted on 6/24/23 at 12:09 am to
quote:

Apparently he’s very near the action

Rob Lee Twitter


Well I'll be damned. Here's the English-dubbed version. Some pretty bold talk by Prighozin. Worth a watch.

LINK

Edit: forgot to paste the link
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 12:13 am
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26867 posts
Posted on 6/24/23 at 12:13 am to
I thought at the outset of Putin's latest adventure that Ukraine would have the will to fight and the Russians not so much so. I don't think most Russians share Putin's ambitions or desire to conquer Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine was subjected to genocide by Stalin and their cousins in Moscow within living memory.

Ukraine has the will to fight.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/24/23 at 12:14 am to
quote:

As a practical matter your theory generally goes against my belief that the world is simpler than we think and run by dumber people than we can imagine


Amen, I agree with you. I suspect my theory has at most, a 15% chance of being correct.
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