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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:01 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:01 pm to Chromdome35
So if Wagner takes the city and this logistics hub, will the temporarily stop the flow of goods or make any major changes?
This is all so fascinating
This is all so fascinating
3
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:02 pm to TacoNash
It's kind of weird there are no Wagner patches or flags visible on ANYTHING I've seen in Rostov.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:02 pm to notiger1997
quote:
This is all so fascinating
Totally agree. This is surreal.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:03 pm to Chromdome35
Apologies I meant the list I replied to in thread, sorry functioning on 3 hours sleep so should have clarified.
Intelcrab did go dark and is still sporadic if events are slow but usually comes out when significant ones are in play.
Intelcrab did go dark and is still sporadic if events are slow but usually comes out when significant ones are in play.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:03 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Rostov is also the Logistics hub for all rail going into southern Ukraine and the primary hub for trains bound for Crimea. It basically cuts off Crimea forcing considerable detours.
I don’t know if there are any detours around Rostov. Looking at google maps. Trains would have to reverse direction and go almost all the way back to Moscow and then go to Volgorod (aka Stakingrad) before proceeding onto the ferry crossing the Sea of Azov. If Wagner holds Rostov and interprets the flow of equipment to the front for any significant time or fighting causes any major damages to the lines then Ukraine will get a huge boost in their strategic outlook.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:04 pm to notiger1997
I think thats the question in everyone's minds ...what now?
Does Wagner choke off the supply to southern Ukraine to force the MOD into concessions?
If Putin were to offer up the generals, would Wagner take its toys and go home?
Its hard to see a path forward.
Does Wagner choke off the supply to southern Ukraine to force the MOD into concessions?
If Putin were to offer up the generals, would Wagner take its toys and go home?
Its hard to see a path forward.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:05 pm to NOLATiger163
quote:
At the risk of revealing how much of a geek I really am, I'm picturing it like Sauron frantically recalling the Nazgul when he finally realizes Frodo is about to toss the one ring into the Cracks of Doom.
Does this make Prigozhin Frodo or perhaps Samwise? I always pictured him as more of a Golem type.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:06 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
It's kind of weird there are no Wagner patches or flags visible on ANYTHING I've seen in Rostov.
Some of the tanks in Rostov have the red Z of the Russian national guard painted on them but they don’t seem to be fighting Wagner. Is the guard siding with Wagner?
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:06 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
quote:
Is the guard siding with Wagner?
I think this is a question everyone is trying to figure out right now.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:06 pm to notiger1997
Nuclear weapons are in the area around Rustov LINK
Hopefully Russia can get enough people to secure the site. While this situation is somewhat hilarious. No one wants them being used.
For people who want a summary, here's a long tweet thread about why Rustov is important and the pickle Putin and Shog are in. LINK
Hopefully Russia can get enough people to secure the site. While this situation is somewhat hilarious. No one wants them being used.
For people who want a summary, here's a long tweet thread about why Rustov is important and the pickle Putin and Shog are in. LINK
This post was edited on 6/23/23 at 11:09 pm
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:09 pm to NOLATiger163
quote:LINK
Special Rossiya air squadron flew over Moscow last night: Two presidential helicopters were spotted over the Simferopol highway, the Moscow Ring, and flying toward Putin's residence in Novo-Ogarevo. (outside Moscow near Rublevka)" This might mean Putin has fled Moscow.
Is Putin about to pull a Yanakovich and take his money and run?
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:12 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
LINK
Wagner is commanding some RA units.
How many Army units can the Russian brass really count on to fight for Putin?
Wagner is commanding some RA units.
How many Army units can the Russian brass really count on to fight for Putin?
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:13 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think thats the question in everyone's minds ...what now?
Does Wagner choke off the supply to southern Ukraine to force the MOD into concessions?
If Putin were to offer up the generals, would Wagner take its toys and go home?
Its hard to see a path forward.
Either scenario means a huge hit to Russian morale and narrative, I really don't see there being a path where this won't happen. For all the talk of it only being about "the MoD that Wagner is after" if Wagner gains traction with this all bets are off imo.
I don't think Putin can afford to offer up the MoD and remain in power, they have their own power bases within the military they can try to call on which at the very least further destabilises the situation.
On the flip side if he doesn't quell Wagner in actual revolt he risks it spreading causing a similar result.
Short of it at the moment is Putin is between a rock and a very musical place.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:13 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Is the guard siding with Wagner? I think this is a question everyone is trying to figure out right now.
If they do side with Wagner or if they can’t put up any more resistance than they already have then Russia will be forced to pull units back from Ukraine to fight Wagner. Ukraine is about to bust through the weak spots like semen busting through a dry rotten condom on prom night.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:13 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Here is a good list of twitter sources I put together.
LINK
Good shite man. I thought I already knew all the good Twitter handles. Found several new ones to add to my Ukraine list.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:14 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
The guard got smoked by Ukrainian partisans and territorial defense units in Feb 2022. They're supposed to be an internal security force and probably do well enough against unarmed or lightly armed opposition. Whether they're willing or even capable of engaging in heavy combat is an open question.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:15 pm to jefffan
quote:
How many Army units can the Russian brass really count on to fight for Putin?
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:15 pm to El Mattadorr
Yevgeny Prigozhin with nukes is not something anyone wants.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:17 pm to jefffan
Here are a couple of posts from your great link.
quote:
Prigozhin is moving right on top of the most important point of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
It the bleeping strategic reserve of the whole Russian Army.
It would be like capturing Fort Hood empty of people and intact in equipment, along with Joint Base Langley-Eustis.
More importantly, it is the single most important railway marshaling yard/supply point for RuAF in Donbas and southern Ukraine.
Putin literally cannot use airpower to destroy Rostov on the Don without destroying his Army in Ukraine.
quote:
The Russian Southern Military District building is the hub of a centralized military communications system that reaches across southern Russia.
Taking it means Moscow will have a hard time directly contacting loyal units in the SMD while Wagner has a massive communications...facility it can use to expand its reach.
Wagner also obtained all of Russia's current codes and military plans resident in that building.
Including all the contingency plans the SMD had for dealing with Wagner.
In so many words, any spies planted in Wagner and known to ...the Southern Military District are now in Progozhin's grasp.
Putin and Shoygu have a lot more problems now than 24 hours ago.
Posted on 6/23/23 at 11:18 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:Oh the Prig is definitely Gollum, even if he's crazy enough to think he's still Smeagol.
Does this make Prigozhin Frodo or perhaps Samwise? I always pictured him as more of a Golem type.
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