re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Whoa. Major progress for Ukraine in southern Donetsk. Here's Rybar:

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In the area of the Vremievsky ledge, the assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the 23rd and 31st Ombre, as well as the Marines of the 37th Marine Brigade, resumed attacks on Russian positions. On the right flank, the enemy infantry landed in a forest belt and was able to advance to Harvest.

Now the fighting is going on near the village. At the same time, the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to reach the approaches to Novodonetskoye, but fighters on the front line and artillerymen are successfully operating in this area, preventing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from approaching the village.

At the same time, on the ledge itself, Ukrainian units occupied Neskuchnoye and Blagodatnoye almost without a fight - the servicemen of the Kaskad OBTF retreated to more advantageous positions due to the threat of being surrounded.

Also, enemy attacks in small groups were noted on the left flank at the Novodarovka-Rovnopol line. Judging by the almost synchronous attack on Urozhaynoye and from Bolshaya Novoselka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to penetrate the rear of the Russian group on the Vremievsky ledge.

At the same time, against the background of attacks in this area, the activity of Ukrainian artillery in the Zaporozhye direction increased, and an armored fist is concentrated near Malaya Tokmachka. This indirectly indicates preparations for the next night attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine south of Orekhov.

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This is the area that the offensive started in, with the AMX-10s doing the heavy work. Then, there was what seemed to be a much heavier strike to the west south of Orikhiv, and everyone thought that was the main axis, but maybe not.

Erdogan gets a cut of everything like Putin and Mafia bosses.

Things picked up doing the rounds:


While this is still anyone's game it will be interesting to here their takes on where this goes if Ukraine pulls off a win.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1667593016779915264

The lack of visible Ukrainian progress is causing dissention in the pro-Ukrainian OSINT/Breaking news community. Julian Röpcke seems to have had a bit of a meltdown over Ukraine not performing as he expected in the early stages of offensive - he then attracted criticism from the Ukraine TDF and promptly blocked them and started playing the victim card, the reaction has not been kind.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1667418018370945024 - Video

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The Russian army used at least 10 kamikaze drones to hit multiple vehicles of the used battalion of the 47. Ukrainian mechanized brigade south of Orikhiv. Video shows attack on Bradley.
All this could have been avoided, using provided air defense, like the Gepard, for the push

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Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces
@TDF_UA
Julian, if you were thinking for a good time to remove the Ukrainian flag from your profile, now is the right moment. You've hit the bottom, no need to dig deeper

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https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1667622842819592193



Several other accounts have weighed in:

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LINK

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A profound military expert, Julian Roepcke, with years of service under his belt, shares his valuable opinion on how Ukraine should cover every platoon with a whopping number of 34 Geopards. According to this recognized expert, that should cover all units and cities in Ukraine

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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1667630899049930754

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Rock bottom.

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Other things:

Grad goes boom via HIMARS, no indication of area or time but the shrapnel spread is brutal.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1667647104091668480

Russian Convoy in the Zaporizhzhia gets smashed

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1667621787528491010 - Video

Rybar has released this inforgraphic giving location and amounts of current claimed Ukranian losses

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1667604108394496000

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Russia decides to stop the killing and take their own pound of flesh and suddenly Ukraine is balling to the world about sovereignty???

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I got nothing.

:itshappeningisntit:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1667645356971028480

Pro-Russian telegram accounts are reporting Ukrainian “movement” on the Kharkiv front. Waiting for further reports to collaborate.

Looking closer at the Ukrainian advance in southern Donetsk, the Ukrainian forces are following a river upstream, and there are roads on both sides of the river. The next objective is Staromlynivka, because there are east-west roads there, and it could be the next forward base and open other opportunities. Maps:

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Pro-Russian telegram accounts are reporting Ukrainian “movement” on the Kharkiv front. Waiting for further reports to collaborate.

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I mentioned two days ago that there was a rumor that one of the Ukrainian assault brigades was in the far north, near Kupiansk. If Ukraine can reach Troiske, then they can cut off a major supply line for Svatove and Starobilsk.

This task might be easier than it was two weeks ago, if (as is believed) Russia pulled some troops out of this area to deal with the RVC/LFR groups that raided Belgorad Oblast.

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Ukraine as a whole is collapsing

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Wut?

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The next objective is Staromlynivka, because there are east-west roads there, and it could be the next forward base and open other opportunities.

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If and when Ukraine takes Staromlynivka, they can choose whether to push SSE towards Mariupol or SSW towards Berdyansk. Or, if they push reserves in here, both. Following the river towards Mariupol is probably easier.

If this is indeed the major axis of the offensive, then the primary Ukrainian objective is likely Mariupol.