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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/1/23 at 6:26 pm to
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150427 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

It's very real
yet you cant even pin down a timeline
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21020 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 6:29 pm to
quote:

Bet they are going to overextend themselves.



I think that Ukraine should get out, but I will say that, aside from in the center of the city, Russia is fighting uphill in this area.
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
25025 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 6:41 pm to
I agree that from our vantage you are probably correct. But, the U's have done really well so far and I don't believe they are going to sacrifice those men.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

It's very real. America has gotten too deep in this shite now to just let Ukraine fall to Russia. If Russia fully commits to this and starts to take more ground in Ukraine and realistically takes positions to move on Kiev, America will have to engage with manpower at some level to save face. It's a real enough scenario to consider how comfortable you are with it.


I disagree with you on this:

1) I do not believe Russia will advance far enough to capture the Donbas much less to a point where Kiev would be threatened. They don't have the combat power to accomplish that.

2) Even if they did, we still have no reason to put boots on the ground. I would rather lose face as a nation than spill American blood. That said, I don't think we lose any face should Russia ultimately take Ukraine. We fought a proxy war with and eliminated the threat from one of our two greatest adversaries. We did that without spilling our blood, that's a win in my book.

Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73969 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 6:59 pm to
quote:

A close-up map of the approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.

Russian forces have advanced further northwest of Bakhmut, continuing to restrict the possibility of a withdrawal from the city.


What is the size of the Ukrainian force that’s at risk of encirclement here? Are we talking a battalion? Brigade? Division?

(The weirdest shite gets downvoted here. What’s objectionable about my honest question?)
This post was edited on 3/1/23 at 7:05 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:06 pm to
quote:

What is the size of the Ukrainian force that’s at risk of encirclement here? Are we talking a battalion? Brigade? Division?


According to this mapper (Who has been excellent throughout the war) these are the currently deployed units as of Feb 21.

(right click, open in new tab to zoom in)

From that map


ETA: Those are in the area, but wouldn't all be in danger of encirclement
This post was edited on 3/1/23 at 7:08 pm
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73969 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:08 pm to
Holy shite. All those formations are almost encircled?!?

ETA: ah. So no, not all. Still, I’d imagine it’s got to be multiple brigades. That’s not good for the Ukrainians. They need to save those forces, even if it means losing the city.
This post was edited on 3/1/23 at 7:10 pm
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105468 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:12 pm to
quote:

BREAKING: Kadyrov is very bad - a well-known nephrologist urgently flew out of the UAE, as he doesn't trust Russian doctors. Some report that he was poisoned, others say he has kidney failure
LINK
Posted by El Segundo Guy
1-866-DHS-2-ICE
Member since Aug 2014
11675 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:18 pm to
Ukraine has held them up but it's getting about time to pop smoke and move back to the next good piece of terrain.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73969 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Ukraine has held them up but it's getting about time to pop smoke and move back to the next good piece of terrain.


Certainly looks that way.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:27 pm to
I was scrolling the comments on that twitter post and came across this. I LOL'd.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:41 pm to
The only modern ground weapon system that Russia hasn't deployed to Ukraine has been the T-14 Armata Tank.

Here is a video of 10 of them on a train.
The arrival of modern western armor to the battlefield is forcing Russia to deploy the most modern tank in it's inventory. I think they have less than 20 of these and from the reporting I've read, they still have significant bugs to work out. It will be interesting to see if these ever appear and if so, how do they do.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1630937083547140096
quote:

??Look at whats being sent to face the Leopard

I believe it’s the first time we’ve seen this many in the same place
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30642 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

T-14


The first one of those that show up on Twitter as a burning hulk will ruffle Putin's feathers.

I would love to see his and Solovyov's real-time reactions.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4689 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:47 pm to
quote:

How many times have you been to either Russia, Ukraine or both?
;) you guys don’t know what the frick you’re talking about. Brainwashed dolts.


So please lay out your impressive credentials that make you a non brainwashed dolt. If it's anything beyond "I went to Russia once" and "the MSM lies and I just know what's true and what's not" I'll be shocked
Posted by EarlDibblesJr
Big Thicket
Member since Oct 2020
358 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:56 pm to
Russia was ALWAYS a paper tiger. Too many bought the CIA lies to justify to endless military spending. Military industrial complex.

RU called up hundreds of thousands of troops. 97% of their troop force is now in UKR. And they have barely taken 20% of the country in 1 year. And they were suppose to take on the 30 country coalition of NATO. With Sweden and Finland joining as well. Give. Me. A. Break.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4689 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:57 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote further self-censorship among the critical ultranationalist community, prompting pushback from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and prominent milbloggers. Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin announced on March 1 that the Duma could ratify amendments to the Russian Criminal Code introducing harsher punishments for discrediting participants of the Russian "special military operation," including "volunteers," as soon as March 14.[1] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) labels irregular armed formations fighting in Ukraine—specifically the Wagner Group—as volunteers. Volodin stated punishments would include a fine of up to five million rubles (about $66,450), five years of correctional or forced labor, or a sentence of 15 years in prison.

ISW assessed on February 26 that Putin has allowed the ultranationalist community to expand its influence at the expense of the Russian MoD so the Kremlin can leverage the community’s pre-established networks to recruit volunteers.[5] The Kremlin likely seeks to mitigate further pushback from the pro-war ultranationalist community, which continues to look up to Putin as the facilitator of the war despite their criticisms of the conduct of the war. The State Duma will likely pass these amendments on March 14, given Volodin’s announcement


quote:

A New York Times (NYT) investigation into catastrophic Russian losses during the recent Russian offensive near Vuhledar indicates that the Russian military remains unable to rapidly fix the endemic challenges posed by severe personnel and equipment losses. NYT reported on March 1 that Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to make serious mistakes and advance tank columns into Ukrainian ambushes in the recent three-week Russian offensive near Vuhledar, which Ukrainian sources characterized as the largest tank battle of the war to date.[8] NYT reported that Russian forces lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) during the three-week offensive, forcing them to resort in the last week to frontal infantry attacks.[9] Ukrainian troops outlined their tactics to NYT, stating they lured Russian forces into kill zones before immobilizing Russian columns and channeling them into mine-laden road shoulders, before destroying them with artillery - including HIMARS, typically used against static, rear area targets.[10] The Russian elements deployed to the Vuhledar area, primarily the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, are mainly staffed with poorly trained mobilized personnel who suffered massive losses in this area in October 2022 and again in February 2023.


quote:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a package of 16 documents on March 1 that may facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese aid to Russia through Belarus. The documents include a strategy for joint Belarusian-Chinese industrial development, a document on Belarusian-Chinese scientific and technical cooperation for 2023-2024, and a memorandum of understanding on joint projects using Chinese government loans.[13] Lukashenko stated that Belarus is interested in deepening cooperation with China on technological development, including the creation of joint ventures, the modernization of Belarusian enterprises with modern Chinese technologies, and trade in goods and services.[14] Lukashenko stated that Belarusian manufacturers are interested in studying the "competencies and technologies of Chinese companies in the formation of a component base, the production of engines, transmissions, axles, other components, and assemblies."

Lukashenko likely additionally intends these agreements to support his longstanding effort to cultivate Chinese economic influence in Belarus to hedge against Russian integration pressure, although these measures will at most delay Russia’s ongoing campaign to secure full economic control of Belarus. Several of the documents also concern Chinese-Belarusian trade and economic cooperation.[17] Lukashenko previously expressed support to expand China’s economic presence in Belarus in February 2021 when Lukashenko intensified his efforts to delay Russia’s absorption of Belarus through the Union State


quote:

Russian occupation authorities may be attempting to further constrain the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the plant. The IAEA announced on February 10 that it delayed a planned rotation of personnel to the IAEA mission at the ZNPP due to security concerns.[19] IAEA General Director Rafael Grossi stated on February 20 that the situation remains unstable and on February 28 that 20 detonations occurred near the ZNPP, briefly disconnecting a backup powerline to the ZNPP and underscoring the ZNPP’s "fragile external power situation."[20] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on February 22 that the UN Department for Safety and Security indefinitely postponed the IAEA personnel rotation without proper cause, claiming that Russia is committed to ensuring the safe passage of IAEA personnel to the ZNPP.[21] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on March 1 that Western intelligence agencies disrupted the routine rotation of the IAEA mission in order to accuse Russia of creating obstacles for the IAEA


quote:

Politico reported that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is seemingly reconsidering Serbia’s close ties with Russia, spurred in part by ongoing Wagner Group recruitment and subversion efforts in Serbia and demonstrating the international economic and informational costs imposed on Putin by his invasion of Ukraine. Politico reported on March 1 that Vucic seeks to appeal to both Russia and western institutions by continuing Serbia’s European Union membership bid while refusing to impose sanctions against Russia, but Vucic said that Serbia must make "difficult choices" soon.[24] Vucic condemned the Wagner Group and stated that Serbian authorities will arrest all Serbians who have fought for the Wagner Group in Ukraine. Vucic characterized attendees of a Wagner-backed protest in Belgrade as anti-Serbian and paid off by unspecified foreign actors. Vucic greenlit on February 17 a US-led plan to normalize relations with Kosovo, which Serbia does not officially recognize, and stated that Serbia will remain on the path to EU membership. Politico noted that polls in Serbia suggest that more Serbians support Russia than Western states, suggesting Vucic would struggle to completely divest from ties with Russia - which he likely does not intend to do. A Russian milblogger amplified the Politico article and criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for turning Russia into a "pariah state" from which even "traditional fraternal states distance themselves.


Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4689 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote further self-censorship measures among the critical ultranationalist community, prompting pushback from Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and prominent milbloggers.

A New York Times (NYT) investigation into catastrophic Russian losses during the recent Russian offensive near Vuhledar indicates the Russian military remains unable to rapidly fix the endemic challenges posed by severe personnel and equipment losses.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a package of 16 documents that may facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese aid to Russia through Belarus.

US officials continue to report that Ukrainian forces are properly using Western-provided weapons in Ukraine.

Russian and occupation authorities may be attempting to further limit the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the plant.

Politico reported that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is seemingly reconsidering Serbia’s close ties to Russia during the war in Ukraine, spurred in part by ongoing Wagner Group recruitment and subversion efforts in Serbia.

Russian forces are fortifying positions on the international border in Belgorod Oblast.

Russian forces advanced within Bakhmut and continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continue defensive operations in southern Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities continue to struggle with the administrative management of occupied areas.
Posted by El Segundo Guy
1-866-DHS-2-ICE
Member since Aug 2014
11675 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 7:58 pm to
The toilet idea in that thing is interesting. Many times I've had to empty out the 50 cal ammo box storage category by the TCs station and throw a trash bag in it. The loader would then hop up on it to pop a squat right next to me.

Definitely not ideal looking back at it but we didn't even think twice about it.

I'm looking forward to seeing how well the whole tank and the unmanned turret won't hold up.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73969 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

Posted byMessageChromdome35Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict by Chromdome35The only modern ground weapon system that Russia hasn't deployed to Ukraine has been the T-14 Armata Tank. Here is a video of 10 of them on a train.

The arrival of modern western armor to the battlefield is forcing Russia to deploy the most modern tank in its inventory. I think they have less than 20 of these and from the reporting I've read, they still have significant bugs to work out. It will be interesting to see if these ever appear and if so, how do they do.


This is an absolutely stupid move by the Russians if true.

1. Twenty tanks are not going to make a difference on the battlefield at anything more than a localized tactical level.

2. If these are the only T-14s they have, then what are they going to use to train new tank crews and formations on how to use the T-14?

The logical move would be to (1) send these 20 T-14s to their tank schools to train crews on the T-14 and (2) focus industrial output on pumping out as many T-14s as possible. It doesn’t appear this ever occurred to the Russians though.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73969 posts
Posted on 3/1/23 at 8:15 pm to
quote:

The toilet idea in that thing is interesting. Many times I've had to empty out the 50 cal ammo box storage category by the TCs station and throw a trash bag in it. The loader would then hop up on it to pop a squat right next to me.


I took a 5 gal bucket and cut out then center of the bottom. Whenever I had to take a dump, I’d grab my trusty bucket from the bustle rack, get my e-tool to dig a cat hole, then turn the bucket upside down over the cat hole and take a nice relaxing healthy shite in relative comfort. Made squeezing out those MRE shits somewhat easier.
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