re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Yep, that's the Skynex. We might have discussed it in December, because Germany paid for two of them to be constructed for Ukraine, although they weren't supposed to be ready until 2024.

LINK

But I suppose that the German MoD/Rheinmetall just decided to go ahead and send the prototypes in now.

In reading about the Skyranger system, it's basically the same as Skynet, but specifically designed to be a mobile system, while Skynex could be deployed in a stationary capacity (to protect a city or military base).

In addition to the guns, both systems can include missiles and high-energy lasers (unclear if the prototypes sent to Ukraine include those or not).

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I doubt drones will fly in formation so nicely in combat.

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The US has done it in Syria several years ago

To add paranormal to this crazy shite, UFO boards all over the internet are buzzing with stories today that Russian airports have shut down in St Petersburg etc due to sudden experience of multiple UFOS. They were some allegations that they may have been US drones in retaliation for the Chinese ballon’s, but something is going on

Russia's refined products exports WAYYY down. They never actually recovered to level pre covid lockdowns. 1/3 what they were before last year, so likely close to 25% pre Covid.

Best website for oil and gas market info on the internet. The info goes away next week. LINK

Edit: Basically, Russian refineries have been shutdown or operating at bankruptcy level low capacities. Loss of almost 2 million BPD from 2021 of under 6 million BPD total capacity is being way overbuilt. They had expanded capacity in since 2000 with target market Europe, UK and USA

LINK

Reported as severe weather at St. Pete and Murmansk

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I’m starting to think and agree that holding that line as long as they can is really their only option right now. Weapons deliveries are coming too slow, especially armored vehicles, so they have to keep the Russians pinned down by any means necessary.

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Several have said that there is higher ground outside of town. Why couldn't they retreat to the high ground, save the manpower and pin the Russians down from there?

British Defence Intelligence
Update On Ukraine
1 March 2023

On 27 February 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence confirmed it had shot down 11 Shahed one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA UAVs) out of 14 launched overnight. Serhii Popko, head of Kyiv City Military Administration, reported nine of these were shot down in the vicinity of Kyiv airspace. Three additional Shahed UAVs were reportedly shot down in Chernhiv Oblast, northern Ukraine.

Prior to this 26 February 2023 attack, there have not been any reports of OWA UAVs being used in Ukraine since around 15 February 2023. This decrease in OWA UAV attack tempo likely indicates that Russia has run down its current stock: it will likely seek a resupply.

Due to the vector of the attack, these Shahed-UAVs were highly likely launched from the Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Previously, the only observed launch site since mid-December 2022 was from the Krasnodar region, across the Sea of Azov. A second launch site would give the Russians a different axis of attack, closer to Kyiv. This is likely to decrease time in the air over Ukraine and an attempt to further stretch Ukrainian air defences.

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Weapons deliveries are coming too slow, especially armored vehicles, so they have to keep the Russians pinned down by any means necessary. I think they need another 6-8 weeks to get enough deliveries into the country before they can hope to mount an effective counter strike.

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It's not even just the deliveries; it's also the training. At any moment now, Ukraine has thousands of its best soldiers in Europe or even in the US training on various systems. And they are "the best." You had to be an excellent tanker on a T-72 to get selected to train on a Leopard (someone in here said that your crew needed five confirmed kills).

The rumor was that Ukraine was trying to create five new mechanized brigades for the offensive with all this Western equipment. All the good stuff is not getting diluted into existing units -- its power is going to be concentrated.

And we have a number of pieces of evidence that the big Ukrainian counter-offensive won't start until mid-April (though some shaping, demining, and recon work could happen before then). The most telling was in a story about NATO logistics when an officer was quoted saying that countries needed to get all their donations to one of three NATO logistics hubs near the Ukrainian border "by the end of March, or it won't get to the front in time." The weather is another big part of that, as mud season would prevent a big action for a while anyway.

So, your theory is that the ongoing Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut makes strategic sense, because it keeps Russia's focus on taking that city, instead of preparing to defend against the big Ukrainian offensive to come? You might be right. A CNN reporter tweeted yesterday:

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The fight in Bakhmut is 100% more difficult than officially reported, a Ukrainian soldier told CNN today, adding that it will be defended "until the end." "We all understand that we are holding on and dying to win time for a counteroffensive in the spring.”

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I also think that there is a solid argument that Russia is using up valuable ammo, tanks, and men in this "Russian offensive," and that the capture of Bakhmut would end the offensive and allow Russia to start restocking.

Russia has lost some 200 tanks in the last month by Oryx's count, and they only have one tank factory that makes 20 new tanks each month. They have another factory refurbishing old T-62s that is now sending another 20 tanks per month. Since practically all available Russian tanks are now in Ukraine, this "Russian offensive" has meant that there will be fewer tanks along the front line when Ukraine attacks.

It's the same with ammo. We know that Russia is running critically short of artillery shells, but all reports are that Russia is still using a lot of them in this offensive.

And, on the anniversary of the war, Putin did not announce a new major mobilization. They are still mobilizing men into service at a low level, but not at the rates that they are losing them.

So, maybe the continued defense of Bakhmut DOES make strategic sense.

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I also think that there is a solid argument that Russia is using up valuable ammo, tanks, and men in this "Russian offensive," and that the capture of Bakhmut would end the offensive and allow Russia to start restocking.

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Has merit. This is what happened after russia took Lysychansk last July.


ISW report july 4 2022

"Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Russian military to conduct an operational pause."

Preventing the resting of troops and restocking will increase the probability of success of a Ukrainian offensive.