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Posted on 2/6/23 at 7:04 pm to Jim Rockford
A look at a Czech factory refurbishing captured Russian tanks. LINK
Posted on 2/6/23 at 7:11 pm to Jim Rockford
Interesting discussion with Thomas Sowell on which countries thrive and which fail. Let's take Spain and all the gold and silver it took back to Spain. There was no development of innovation and human capital with all that shiny metal. Spain became and remained one of the poorest nations in Europe after it was all spent.
Europe was completely devastated after WWII, all of its manufacturing was in ruins. Now it did get a boost from the Marshall Plan but it was actually human capital which turned it prosperous.
Now look at Ukraine, thus far since Feb 24th of last year, lots of innovation and creativity has occurred. When this is all over, it should thrive like a mofo economically. It already has mineral wealth, plus it does have human capital.
Europe was completely devastated after WWII, all of its manufacturing was in ruins. Now it did get a boost from the Marshall Plan but it was actually human capital which turned it prosperous.
Now look at Ukraine, thus far since Feb 24th of last year, lots of innovation and creativity has occurred. When this is all over, it should thrive like a mofo economically. It already has mineral wealth, plus it does have human capital.
Posted on 2/6/23 at 7:17 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Exactly. And that’s why Ukraine needs to find an off-ramp from this war sooner rather than later. Time is not on Ukraine’s side.
Putin doesn't have unlimited time either. The longer this goes on, the weaker he looks, and the more incentive other members of his crime family have to try to muscle him out. And he may not have a terminal illness like the rumors state, but you can tell by looking at him he has health issues.
Whoever comes after him may well be more aggressive than Putin, but It's doubtful he'll be able to hold the different factions together well enough to prosecute the war effectively.
Posted on 2/6/23 at 7:39 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
There never was any plan for any major movement during the winter. Everything is geared for Spring
Yea. Reading stories of winter gear donations had given me some hope Ukraine could keep up the pressure over winter against a colder, hungrier, less motivated Russian force.
But that was probably always a long shot.
Posted on 2/6/23 at 7:41 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Yea. Reading stories of winter gear donations had given me some hope Ukraine could keep up the pressure over winter against a colder, hungrier, less motivated Russian force.
Yet able to defend better and less attritted from the weather conditions.
Posted on 2/6/23 at 8:02 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Putin doesn't have unlimited time either. The longer this goes on, the weaker he looks, and the more incentive other members of his crime family have to try to muscle him out.
Yeah and its terrible for the elites income model, which is essentially stealing money from the state.
Posted on 2/6/23 at 9:05 pm to Breauxsif
quote:
From a ground forces standpoint, Russia struggles immensely because they simply don't do combined arms well. So they are assigned areas and the military leaders just hope for the best.
This has been the difference in the war. Had Russia had better combined arms training from the onset, this war would have lasted maybe a month.
Posted on 2/6/23 at 10:23 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Yeah and its terrible for the elites income model, which is essentially stealing money from the state.
At least they will get some more weapons manufacturing at inflated prices without any actual QA/QC
Posted on 2/6/23 at 10:47 pm to CitizenK
Reports have been percolating for several days now that the Russian attack on Vuhledar was not doing well.
This came out today. If true, we'll see a lot more on this.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1622653927597514788
Followed by:
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1622710747426947103
Video at link
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1622633889314250752
Longer video of the previous video...(Warning: GRAPHIC)
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1622632497723985920
This came out today. If true, we'll see a lot more on this.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1622653927597514788
quote:
Vuhledar 06.02 - 19:10 update: ????
Great news. Throughout the day, the enemy attempted a series of assaults in Vuhledar's direction. Up to 30 armored vehicles of different types have been either damaged or completely destroyed. Hopefully videos will be released soon to public
Followed by:
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1622710747426947103
quote:
We had already the news from
@Tatarigami_UA
that 30 Russian vehicles in the sector of Vuhledar have been knocked out or damaged and this picture from Deep State UA corroborates it.
Video at link
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1622633889314250752
quote:
#Ukraine: Three Russian tanks were destroyed/damaged near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast - apparently by running over anti-tank landmines.
Longer video of the previous video...(Warning: GRAPHIC)
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1622632497723985920
This post was edited on 2/6/23 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 2/6/23 at 10:54 pm to Chromdome35
Bakhmut update from a source that is usually right.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1622707477782355971
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1622707477782355971
quote:
Bakhmut Holds!
The situation is critical on the eastern and southern half of the city where Russian forces have made advances.
They are also trying to cut the road at Ivanivske.
The battles are constant they throw everything into assaults.
This post was edited on 2/6/23 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 2/6/23 at 11:01 pm to Chromdome35
Ukraine is changing modern warfare with its utilization of small drones.
When your opponent can do this to you all day long every day, it has to be demoralizing.
(death and destruction warning on the videos in the links)
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1622817628333932544
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1622684375174287371
Spotting for Artillery
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1622819866594971649
When your opponent can do this to you all day long every day, it has to be demoralizing.
(death and destruction warning on the videos in the links)
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1622817628333932544
quote:
What the hell they are doing?
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1622684375174287371
quote:
Groups of Russian soldiers were destroyed by the 501st battalion of the 36th OBrMP in the direction of #Avdiivka?? #Ukraine
Spotting for Artillery
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1622819866594971649
This post was edited on 2/6/23 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 2/6/23 at 11:13 pm to Chromdome35
Russia must be on the offensive, reports of dead officers are reappearing.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622340987350564866
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622553591134273538
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622340987350564866
quote:
The commander of the GRU/GU's 14th Spetsnaz Brigade, Colonel Sergey Polyakov, was reportedly killed on the night of February 2-3 in Donetsk Oblast.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622553591134273538
quote:
The former commander of the VDV’s 98th Airborne Division who retired as a Major General was allegedly killed in Ukraine as a volunteer leading a mobilized motorized rifle regiment from Tatarstan.
Posted on 2/7/23 at 3:22 am to Chromdome35
Not sure about the running guy, could be the video quality but looks a bit super imposed as there is no smoke and he appears to be out when he comes back into frame at the end, perhaps he dropped and rolled finally.
No question about the tanks though, the one that sets off what I am presuming is an anti-tank mine is an ex-tank.
No question about the tanks though, the one that sets off what I am presuming is an anti-tank mine is an ex-tank.
Posted on 2/7/23 at 6:48 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Reports have been percolating for several days now that the Russian attack on Vuhledar was not doing well.
quote:
Up to 30 armored vehicles of different types have been either damaged or completely destroyed.
And Ukraine reports killing a number of Russians not seen since the very first days of the war:
In contrast to Bakhmut, which is of very little strategic importance, Vuldehar is of tremendous strategic value, as its position is right next to the railroad line coming from Donetsk and going to Melitopol. Remember, there's no direct railroad line from Mariupol going west, so the fact that Ukraine has fire control over the Donetsk-Melitopol line has meant that Russia cannot supply its troops in the south by rail, unless those supplies come from Crimea.
If Russia were able to take Vuldehar, it could supply Melitopol by rail from Donetsk, all of its logistics would be simplified, and it would make a Ukrainian spring offensive in the south much more difficult.
Posted on 2/7/23 at 7:04 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
It is highly likely that Russia has been attempting to re-start major offensive operations in Ukraine since early January 2023. Its operational goal is almost certainly to capture the remainin Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have only managed to gain several hundred metres of territory per week. This is almost certainly because Russia now lacks the munitions and manoeuvre units required for successful offensives. Senior commanders likely make plans requiring undermanned, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic objectives due to political and professional pressure.
Russian leaders will likely continue to demand sweeping advances. It remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
It is highly likely that Russia has been attempting to re-start major offensive operations in Ukraine since early January 2023. Its operational goal is almost certainly to capture the remainin Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have only managed to gain several hundred metres of territory per week. This is almost certainly because Russia now lacks the munitions and manoeuvre units required for successful offensives. Senior commanders likely make plans requiring undermanned, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic objectives due to political and professional pressure.
Russian leaders will likely continue to demand sweeping advances. It remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks.
Posted on 2/7/23 at 7:05 am to ned nederlander
ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated on February 5 that the Ukrainian military is expecting Russia to start its decisive offensive around February 24 to symbolically tie the attack to the first anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[1] Reznikov also clarified that the Ukrainian military has not observed the formation of Russian offensive groups in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv directions or Belarus; Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk noted that Russian forces are likely concentrating on launching offensive operations in the east rather than in southern Ukraine
quote:
Select Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism towards Russia’s ability to launch a successful offensive past late February. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger noted that Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov (who currently commands Russian forces in Ukraine) has a limited time window to launch a large-scale offensive operation in Ukraine before it is entirely impossible to execute.
quote:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false narrative that the provision of German tanks to Ukraine threatens Russian security. Putin stated on February 2 that German tanks are again threatening Russia, drawing a false parallel with World War II.[7] Scholz stated that Putin’s remarks are "a part of a series of abstruse historical comparisons that he uses to justify his attack on Ukraine."
quote:
Kremlin-appointed Russian and occupation officials continue to implement social benefit schemes that target children and teenagers in occupied areas of Ukraine to consolidate social control and integration of these territories into Russia. Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova (appointed by Russian President Vladimir Putin) met with a slate of Russian occupation officials on February 6 to discuss various issues relating to children and youth in occupied regions of Ukraine. In a meeting with occupation head of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov, Lvova-Belova noted that the Crimean occupation government has been instrumental in "accepting" children from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[11] Lvova-Belova also reported that the "Day After Tomorrow" organization will begin conducting "rehabilitation" tours in Crimea to work with children who need special psychological assistance
quote:
Lvova-Belova is likely working directly on Putin’s orders to institute several social institutions and programs in occupied areas of Ukraine to collect personal data on children, carry out various social programming functions aimed at integrating occupied areas using pseudo-humanitarian organizations, and set conditions to legitimize and institutionalize the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Putin signed a list of instructions on January 3 that directed Lvova-Belova and directed the occupation heads of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts to "take additional measures to identify minors...left without parental care" in occupied areas to provide them with "state social assistance" and "social support."[18] Lvova-Belova's February 6 meetings with occupation heads are likely the manifestation of Putin’s list of instructions and represent an escalation in efforts by Kremlin-appointed officials to consolidate social integration of occupied territories by targeting children
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to open the door for further institutionalized corruption in Russia through legislative manipulations. Putin signed a decree on February 6 allowing Russian deputies and senators to not publish their incomes in the public domain.[21] The law will allow deputies and senators to publish their incomes in an anonymized form that does not contain their personal data. The law will also apply to regional and municipal deputies.[22] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the new law will not affect anti-corruption measures and stated that "the conditions of the [special military operation] bring their own specifics
quote:
The Kremlin continues to deny Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin legitimacy and authority in Russia. A Moscow court refused to recognize Prigozhin as the owner and founder of Wagner private military company (PMC) after revisiting Prigozhin’s lawsuit against Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov on February 6.[25] Prigozhin sued Venediktov in June 2021 for accusing him of being the "owner of Wagner," and the Moscow court concluded that information about Prigozhin’s ownership of Wagner was "unreliable
quote:
Prigozhin’s appeal in the Russian nationalist information space may also be declining as he continues to overcompensate for the culmination of Wagner’s attack around Bakhmut. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger commented on a video showing Prigozhin piloting an Su-24M bomber aircraft supposedly over Bakhmut on February 6.[29] The milblogger stated that Prigozhin became the main player in Russian information space rather than the traditional Russian military command which "lacked creativity."[30] Prigozhin also "declared" the US, UK, and Canadian governments to be illegitimate states that sponsor terrorism according to the "Wagner Charter."
quote:
Failures of Western sanctions efforts against the provision of arms components to Iran have likely contributed to Russia’s ability to bypass Western sanctions to acquire components for combat drones through military cooperation with Iran. US officials stated on February 5 that Russia and Iran are moving ahead with plans to build an Iranian drone factory on Russian soil, the second such international Iranian drone factory.[35] Iran opened a drone production factory in Tajikistan - a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member state and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) candidate - in May 2022
UK investigative group Conflict Armament Research (CAR) reported in November 2022 that 82% of Iranian Shahed-131, Shahed 136, and Mohajer-6 drones downed in Ukraine had chips, semiconductors, and other components that came from the US despite high import and export control restrictions on such components to Iran.[38] CAR also noted that the downed drones contained higher-end technological capabilities and have a "significant jump in capabilities" compared to other systems previously observed in the Middle East
Posted on 2/7/23 at 7:07 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February.
Select Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism toward Russia’s ability to launch a successful offensive past late February.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false narrative that the provision of German tanks to Ukraine threatens Russian security.
Kremlin-appointed Russian and occupation officials continue to implement social benefit schemes that target children and teenagers in occupied areas of Ukraine to consolidate social control and integration of these territories into Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to open the door for further institutionalized corruption in Russia through legislative manipulations.
The Kremlin continues to deny Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin legitimacy and authority in Russia.
Prigozhin’s appeal in the Russian nationalist information space may also be declining as he continues to overcompensate for the culmination of Wagner’s attack around Bakhmut.
Failures of Western sanctions efforts against the provision of arms components to Iran have likely contributed to Russia’s ability to bypass Western sanctions to acquire combat drones through military cooperation with Iran.
Russian forces likely made tactical gains northeast of Kupyansk between February 4 and February 6, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced west of previous positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 5 and February 6.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast as of February 6 despite Russian claims that Russian forces captured Bilohorivka on February 3.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut but still have not encircled the settlement as of February 6.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
Ukrainian forces continued limited attempts to cross the Dnipro River.
Russian conventional and irregular forces may be increasingly struggling to recruit from Russian penal colonies due to high casualties among prior penal colony recruits.
Russian forces continue to struggle with ethnic tensions and tensions between irregular forces.
Russian officials and occupation authorities may be intensifying operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Donbas.
Posted on 2/7/23 at 8:11 am to StormyMcMan
LINK
German report that Leopard 1 tanks will eventually be going to Ukraine. However, the tanks will all need repairs and upgrades of various kinds, and the financing of those repairs hasn't yet been finalized, but should happen soon. The article indicates that these tanks won't be in Ukraine anytime soon.
German report that Leopard 1 tanks will eventually be going to Ukraine. However, the tanks will all need repairs and upgrades of various kinds, and the financing of those repairs hasn't yet been finalized, but should happen soon. The article indicates that these tanks won't be in Ukraine anytime soon.
quote:
The Federal Government has given the green light for the export of 187 Leopard 1 of the companies Rheinmetall and Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft (FFG). 88 Leopard 1 come from Rheinmetall, 99 from FFG. According to Business Insider, the figures will become official on Tuesday.
Posted on 2/7/23 at 8:39 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Vuhledar 06.02 - 19:10 update: ???? Great news. Throughout the day, the enemy attempted a series of assaults in Vuhledar's direction. Up to 30 armored vehicles of different types have been either damaged or completely destroyed. Hopefully videos will be released soon to public
I see Russia still has not learned how to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare. I almost pity the common Russian soldier. They’re being led to the slaughter like sheep.
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