re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

isw update

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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war and its costs to his people. Putin stated that “Russia’s sovereign, independent, and secure future depends only on us, on our strength and determination” and that 2022 “was a year of difficult, necessary decisions, of important steps toward achieving the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society.”[1] He added that the events of 2022 “became the milestone that laid the foundation of our new common future, our new true independence.” He continued: “That is what we are fighting for even today, we are defending our people on our own historical territories in the new Russian Federation Subjects [the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine].

These comments were likely meant in part to justify the costly war and to appeal to the ultra-nationalist pro-war community that routinely cites the defense of illegally annexed territories as reason to pursue even more aggressive goals and to pay even higher prices for them in Ukraine.[2] They also indicate, however, that Putin remains unwilling to contemplate a meaningful peaceful resolution of the war he began other than on terms he dictates to Ukraine and the West

Putin did not use his annual speech to make any announcements about how the Russian military intends to reverse its setbacks in Ukraine and achieve his maximalist goals.

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Putin delivered his address from the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) as part of an ongoing effort to portray himself as an effective wartime leader actively in control of the war effort. Putin delivered his address from the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don with Russian military personnel in combat uniforms behind him.[4] Putin also reportedly presented battle banners to the Donetsk People‘s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps and the Luhansk People’s Republic 2nd Army Corps, as well as state awards to Russian servicemembers who participated in combat missions in Ukraine.[5] Russian sources reported that Putin also awarded the Cross of Saint George to the commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin.[6] Putin likely staged these events at the SMD headquarters to bolster Kremlin efforts to portray Putin as being deeply involved in the conduct of the war and an effective wartime leader.

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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu used his New Year’s celebratory address to demonize Ukraine and to announce that Russian victory is as “inevitable” as the coming of the new year. Shoigu falsely credited Russian soldiers with defending civilians suffering “genocide and violence” for “the right to speak Russian,” which is an officially recognized national minority language in Ukraine. Shoigu further described the war as a struggle against neo-Nazism, terrorism, and those who idolize war criminals. Shoigu framed Russian victory as the way to prevent attempts to blot out Russia's “glorious history and great achievements” and to protect civilians freed from “Nazis” in an apparent attempt to motivate Russian soldiers.

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Russian forces are likely depleting their stocks of artillery ammunition and will struggle to support their current pace of operations in certain sectors of the frontline in Ukraine as a result. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov reported on December 31 that Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing significant issues with artillery ammunition that will become more pronounced by March of 2023.[8] Budanov stated that Russian forces had previously used 60,000 artillery shells per day (as of some unspecified date) and now only use 19,000 to 20,000 shells.[9] Budanov stated that Russian forces have also removed all remaining artillery ammunition from Belarusian military warehouses to support their operations in Ukraine

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Russian forces launched another round of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 31, but this round was of reduced intensity compared to previous rounds.[13] Official Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces launched over 20 air-launched cruise missiles (of which Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 12) and used 10 Shahed-136 drones and an Orlan-10 surveillance drone (all of which Ukrainian forces reportedly downed).[14] ISW cannot assess at this time whether the decreased intensity of this barrage resulted from Russian missile shortages or whether Russia can continue to conduct intense waves of strikes. Russian milbloggers continued to describe the scope of the attack using similar reporting and reactions as they used for previous rounds of missile strikes despite the reduced intensity and impact.

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Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners on December 31, but reports differed on the number of prisoners exchanged. A senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Andriy Yermak, posted that 140 Ukrainian soldiers returned to Ukraine and an unspecified number of Russian soldiers returned to Russia.[16] Several Russian sources claimed that 82 Ukrainian soldiers returned to Ukraine and 82 Russian soldiers returned to Russia

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Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war in Ukraine and its cost to his domestic audience.

Putin delivered his address from the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) as part of his ongoing efforts to portray himself as an effective wartime leader.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu demonized Ukraine and announced that Russian victory is inevitable in his New Year’s Eve speech.

Russian forces are likely depleting their stocks of artillery ammunition and will struggle to support their current pace of operations in Ukraine as a result.

Russian forces launched another round of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure but at a reduced intensity compared to previously massive waves of strikes.

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners but differed in their reporting on the number of exchanged personnel.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 31.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City on December 31.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost connection to its last functioning backup power line on the evening of December 29.

Russian forces continue operations in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and along the southern axis.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated on December 31 that he knew “for a fact” that the Kremlin plans to close its borders for men, declare martial law, and begin another wave of mobilization in “one week or so.”

Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify law enforcement crackdowns in occupied territories in response to Ukrainian partisan activities.

Russian occupation officials continue to create unbearable living conditions for residents of occupied territories.

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From @UAWeapons:

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A very notable development - new Ukrainian-made artillery ammunition started to reach the frontlines.

Here we can see OF-25T 152mm HE projectiles, made in 2022 - they can be fired from D-20/Msta-B towed howitzers and 2S3/Msta-S SPHs.

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It's recently been unseasonably warm in Europe. If you're looking for when Ukraine might intensify its offensive in the northeast, note that the current weather forecast predicts that the ground will finally freeze on the 10th.

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Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated on December 31 that he knew “for a fact” that the Kremlin plans to close its borders for men, declare martial law, and begin another wave of mobilization in “one week or so.”

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This is consistent with the chatter on intercepted phone calls between the front and family/friends in Russia.

I still am unclear whether those intercepts are legit or not.

Ukraine hit a Russian military base in occupied Makiivka (twin city of Donetsk) last night, a former school. Ukrainians have been talking about 600 dead. While that may be a slight exaggeration, there's zero doubt that Russian losses were significant. The claim was that HIMARS were used, but if so, the extent of the destruction would indicate that some ammo was also stored there.

Here's a link to a Twitter thread with some translated reactions from Russian Telegram channels, including moaning from the press secretary of the DPR that whoever decided to house soldiers there needs to be punished. I especially liked this response:

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Record 8 million #Russians banned from traveling abroad due to debts

The number of Russians banned from leaving the country due to debt reached 8 million people. This is a record number of debtors for 15 years. During the last year the number of such citizens has almost doubled.

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LINK

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Record 8 million #Russians banned from traveling abroad due to debts

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Not something new, but many have been going into debt to makes ends meet from week to week. Russians have two passports, one for travel within Russian and another for external travel

Member when the state TV talking heads were telling everyone not to spend money of celebrating Christmas or New Years at the cost of criminal charges? I member.

Those are some ugly mugs.