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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:26 am to aTmTexas Dillo
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:26 am to aTmTexas Dillo
LINK
Interesting story from bloomberg
Interesting story from bloomberg
quote:
Russia said it still hasn’t finalized the borders of two of the four regions of Ukraine that President Vladimir Putin last week claimed as his own.
“As for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, we will continue to consult with the people who live in those regions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on a conference call Monday. He declined to elaborate on how that might take place or whether the new frontiers would be set out in separate laws. “I’ve said all I can say on that,” he said when pressed by reporters for clarification.
0
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:32 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I think we should keep a close eye on the weather and as the temps drop and winter moves in, how effective can Ukraine continue to be?
Among the many things I know nothing about, how the winter impacts this war is one of them. I feel like it should favor the better equipped, supplied and trained side (Ukraine), on the other hand Ukraine at this point is the army trying to move whereas Russia would be thrilled for the map to go static for 5 months.
Is Russia really going to try and overwinter 100,000 conscripts with crap gear and no training in hostile territory? Is their plan to position these poor souls now ahead of winter and that will buy us 4-6 months to train and equip them in the field before major activity starts in the spring?
Can someone send Ukraine giant Santa hats that they can put atop their all weather HIMARS?
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:36 am to Arksulli
quote:
It is the play action pass of warfare, we show you this, we show you this, and when you bite on that hook we give you this instead.
Great point.
Which is interesting to reflect on now… because for several weeks the Russian trolls on here were spouting off how the slow advance on Kherson was such a weakness for a Ukraine.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:39 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Hey Slim, how do you know? I cut the bottom image out and searched for it via google image search and couldn't find any previous record of it.
Doesn't change the fact that they were outfitted in this crap.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 11:42 am
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:40 am to ned nederlander
quote:
Can someone send Ukraine giant Santa hats that they can put atop their all weather HIMARS?
Seriously, I think that HIMARS make the difference as we approach winter weather. As things get muddier, lines of attack and defense get more an more restricted to roads. Ukraine could lose some of its advantages in maneuverability, and that could be very problematic, except that they significantly outrange Russian artillery. Mud may force Ukraine to slow down, and it may help Russian defense by allowing for the concentration of its declining weaponry into smaller battlespaces, but Ukraine will still have the advantage, I think.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:43 am to GOP_Tiger
Elon Musk is proposing a "peace plan":
LINK
LINK
quote:
Ukraine-Russia Peace:
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.
quote:
This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then
quote:
Also worth noting that a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:47 am to GOP_Tiger
That's a negative for me, Mr. Musk. He sounds like a Politard.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 11:49 am
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:48 am to GOP_Tiger
The question becomes, how much HIMARS ammo does Ukraine have, and how much more we can supply them from our stockpile?
I do not support giving Ukraine equipment when it negatively impacts our ability to project force or keep our troops trained.
I saw reports that we've begun sending a different type of HIMARS ammo to Ukraine, instead of big high explosive warheads, we're now sending the anti-personal version of the HIMARS rockets. This is probably due to low supplies of the high explosive version.
I do not support giving Ukraine equipment when it negatively impacts our ability to project force or keep our troops trained.
I saw reports that we've begun sending a different type of HIMARS ammo to Ukraine, instead of big high explosive warheads, we're now sending the anti-personal version of the HIMARS rockets. This is probably due to low supplies of the high explosive version.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 11:51 am
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:50 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I do not support giving Ukraine equipment when it negatively impacts our ability to project force or keep our troops trained.
I agree to an extent, but I think we are projecting force. We are at war by proxy.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:50 am to SlimTigerSlap
quote:
That's a negative for me, Mr. Musk. He sounds like a Politard.
Yeah, but his Starlink internet has been a HUGE boost to the Ukrainian military, so I'll cut him a little slack (as I'm sure the Ukrainians will too).
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:54 am to SlimTigerSlap
quote:
I agree to an extent, but I think we are projecting force. We are at war by proxy.
I definately see that side of the debate, I suppose the question revolves around how much risk we feel there is to the US becoming involved in a shooting war. If there isn't much risk of that, then the stockpiles could potentially be pulled down below what we've decided is the minimum safe level for our needs.
What needs to happen is that we need more production lines turning this stuff out. In my hometown of Camden, AR where HIMARS is made, they are struggling to find workers with the necessary skills. (who would have thought putting a major weapons plant in the poverty of southern Arkansas would come back around to bite us in the arse). At the time those plants were built (70's and 80's) the education levels of the population base in Southern Arkansas were higher than they are today.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 11:57 am
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:55 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I saw reports that we've begun sending a different type of HIMARS ammo to Ukraine, instead of big high explosive warheads, we're now sending the anti-personal version of the HIMARS rockets. This is probably due to low supplies of the high explosive version.
You think so? It's possible, but I thought it was just so that the Ukrainians could use the best warhead for individual fire missions. They can fire some of the anti-personnel rockets to explode over Russian trenches, and they can use the others for harder targets.
I'd be really surprised if we just announced that we were sending Ukraine 18 more HIMARS if we weren't also able to keep them supplied with rockets.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:57 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'd be really surprised if we just announced that we were sending Ukraine 18 more HIMARS if we weren't also able to keep them supplied with rockets.
I could be mistaken, but I believe those 18 HIMARS we just announced are from future production. There has been conflicting reporting around this, so I'm not sure.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:59 am to GOP_Tiger
I also wonder if we could get the Korean licensee to make HIMARS rockets for Ukraine. To this point, Korea has been unwilling to provide weapons directly to Ukraine, but I think that the "annexations" might prompt a review of that policy.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
Wow what a terrible idea by Musk.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:56 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
What needs to happen is that we need more production lines turning this stuff out. In my hometown of Camden, AR where HIMARS is made
My cousin is an engineer at that plant.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
From Girkin's Telegram channel:
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
Russian channels are now reporting that Ukraine has cut the P-66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna.
I don't think Ukraine actually needs to take Svatove, by the way. I think they can just bypass it on their way to cutting the roads and tracks south of Starobilsk. But they might take it anyway, as I don't think that it's very well defended.
I don't think Ukraine actually needs to take Svatove, by the way. I think they can just bypass it on their way to cutting the roads and tracks south of Starobilsk. But they might take it anyway, as I don't think that it's very well defended.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:37 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Wow what a terrible idea by Musk.
Was not well received by the Ukrainians:
I actually like Musk, but this is where his shortcomings on human emotion get a bit superseded by his logic. Surely he doesn’t think the Russians are winning presently, so I guess he’s putting a high likelihood on Russia using nukes and the potential for full on nuclear war. If I’m not mistaken he’s previous said it is a concern of his partially driving his mars goal.
Not agreeing with him, particularly because I think he vastly underestimated Ukrainian emotion on the subject, but also on the whole agree with the smaller group ITT who know we can’t just cave to the suggestion of use of nukes by a bad actor or we’ll just end up worse anyway.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:45 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think we should keep a close eye on the weather and as the temps drop and winter moves in, how effective can Ukraine continue to be?
Saw some reports yesterday that someone stole lots of Russias winter uniforms ... or that's the story they're going with.
There is a really rainy season in the fall in this part of the world. Called rasputitsa in Russian or bezdorizhzhia in Ukrainian. In lots of analysis of WWII eastern front this and the snow melt in the spring are often considered to have been even more impactful than the vanted Russian winter. Will be interesting to see how it plays out now.
As far as winter goes seems the AFU is much better supplied for it. I'm interested to see if with modern tech and equip if they can still pull off effective operations in the winter.
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