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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:15 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:15 pm to Chromdome35
If China hadn't convinced Putin to delay until after the Olympics he would have had two more weeks of offensive operations before mud season started. Maybe the outcome of the whole war turned on that decision, which may not have seemed significant at the time, it was going to be such a quick operation anyway.
1
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:16 pm to UndercoverBryologist
If NATO accepts Ukraine, I don't see any way that can happen until the war is over.
I think this is just positioning for the eventual peace talks.
I think this is just positioning for the eventual peace talks.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:17 pm to molsusports
All the troops captured or KIA in Lyman area had iodine pills
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:18 pm to Jim Rockford
It's always interesting how seemingly benign events can have such a major impact on the future.
That manifests itself throughout all of our lives. IE, If I hadn't been in that strip club I never would have met my future ex-wife.
That manifests itself throughout all of our lives. IE, If I hadn't been in that strip club I never would have met my future ex-wife.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:19 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
If NATO accepts Ukraine, I don't see any way that can happen until the war is over.
I now see a Zelensky quote saying he understand that it will require a consensus vote from NATO members to allow Ukraine in.
It's probably more or less posturing. I just wanted to confirm whether or not it was even possible
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:21 pm to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
@AAhronheim Israeli intelligence firm @ImageSatIntl has detected an “irregular presence” of Russian TU-160 & TU-95 strategic bombers deployed to Olenya Airbase. The base, on the Kola Peninsula, houses a significant number of military hardware, including tactical & strategic nuclear weapons
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:22 pm to Chromdome35
Xi was critical of Putin after the last meeting.
Let me rephrase - Xi isn’t necessarily sending military support to Putin anytime soon.
But if China’s goal is to take Taiwan, which chain of events creates better conditions for that to happen?
If the rest of the world is suffering, or is pre-occupied with Russia, then China operates without as much pushback.
I don’t see how a swift resolution/defeat/retreat of Russia in Ukraine would be better for China’s ambitions.
Let me rephrase - Xi isn’t necessarily sending military support to Putin anytime soon.
But if China’s goal is to take Taiwan, which chain of events creates better conditions for that to happen?
If the rest of the world is suffering, or is pre-occupied with Russia, then China operates without as much pushback.
I don’t see how a swift resolution/defeat/retreat of Russia in Ukraine would be better for China’s ambitions.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:22 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think this is just positioning for the eventual peace talks.
I think peace talks are moot with the annexations. Clearly there will have to be a regime change in Moscow before Ukraine will even think about talks.
Putin has sealed the deal between Ukraine and NATO, IMO. As soon as the conflict is over, I think Ukraine will be admitted.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:23 pm to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
Exactly how expedient can this "speedy application" to join NATO be?
Look at Sweden and Finland’s application process. If there is political will it can be done quickly.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:24 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Clearly there will have to be a regime change in Moscow
Oh, to long for the days of 1982-1985 when Soviet premiers were croaking left and right.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:26 pm to Burhead
quote:
Look at Sweden and Finland’s application process. If there is political will it can be done quickly.
Are Sweden and Finland currently under attack from Russia?
The key to NATO is the Article V guarantee. It's basically insurance from Russian aggression.
To give a country currently under attack from Russia NATO membership is a lot like giving a car insurance policy to a person who has already wrecked his car.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:27 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think this is just positioning for the eventual peace talks.
It does look like Ukraine is playing chess.
Zelensky went from publicly acknowledging that NATO membership was likely not possible, to now realizing that it may be possible. And he has done this using Putin’s own clumsy missteps as the impetus for the accelerated NATO application.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:30 pm to AGGIES
quote:
But if China’s goal is to take Taiwan, which chain of events creates better conditions for that to happen?
There was an article from a few weeks ago about China taking a step back to incorporate lessons learned from the Ukraine war into their own military planning.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:32 pm to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
Are Sweden and Finland currently under attack from Russia?
I think this is the wrong question...
Russia (as of now..) is not about to start rolling tanks into any country other than Ukraine.
Therefore the real question becomes how does the calculus change for surrounding countries (think Poland..), NATO and the rest of the world if tactical nukes begin popping off... I truly have no idea how that ends...
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:38 pm to klrstix
Based on the NATO Secretary General’s remarks today, he views the risk of inaction is just as great as the risk of action.
So the proper response towards Russia for the use of nukes on Ukraine might be part of the decision to consider Ukraine for NATO membership now.
So the proper response towards Russia for the use of nukes on Ukraine might be part of the decision to consider Ukraine for NATO membership now.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:42 pm to AGGIES
quote:
So the proper response towards Russia for the use of nukes on Ukraine might be part of the decision to consider Ukraine for NATO membership now.
I could see it happening...if...if...Ukraine agreed to a withdrawal from military engagement in the annexed zones and agreeing to the de facto annexation by Russia, while simultaneously maintaining politically and diplomatically that the zones were annexed illegally.
In return, NATO membership would encompass only the territory of Ukraine that is fully under Ukrainian control now.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:42 pm to AGGIES
Putin signed a new decree calling up 120,000 Russians between 18-27 and who are not in the reserve but subject to conscription between from November 1st to December 31st.
Can’t find out if this is related to the 300,000 announced during the partial mobilization or something new entirely.
Can’t find out if this is related to the 300,000 announced during the partial mobilization or something new entirely.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:42 pm to Burhead
Now that Ukraine has actual air defense systems now now hopefully they can shoot them down before dropping any payload.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:42 pm to AGGIES
quote:
So the proper response towards Russia for the use of nukes on Ukraine might be part of the decision to consider Ukraine for NATO membership now.
I see zero chance of NATO membership right now...
Posted on 9/30/22 at 12:44 pm to Burhead
I think the 120k is their normally scheduled conscription process for the fall.
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