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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:36 pm to
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:36 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/4/26 at 5:29 pm
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:43 pm to
I can't find it now but I saw that now that Russia is using Iranian drones, Israel decided to get off the sidelines and is now supplying Ukriane with some anti drone tech.
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:46 pm to
I’m surprised you’re so concerned about Europe getting nuked, seeing as how that would wipe the WEF globalist groomers off the face of the Earth. Wouldn’t you see that as a net positive?
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:47 pm to
If Russia falls or gets sufficiently preoccupied, Israel will absolutely make a move on Iran.

And then I genuinely do believe all hell could break loose.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150455 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

On Wednesday, Hu called for a ceasefire and negotiations "rather than an ever-increasing showdown between Russia and NATO."

"Please don't forget that there will be no absolute winner or loser in a military conflict between nuclear powers," he wrote. "Whoever tries to completely overwhelm the other side must be crazy."
and putin could end it right now if he wanted to by simply ending his invasion
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 8:51 pm
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:49 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/4/26 at 5:29 pm
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

Horcruxes


God you’re such a dweeb
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150455 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

Imagine thousands of Type 96 tanks ferried across the new bridge from Heihe into Blagoveshchensk,
quote:

But would China commit? Can't say, but it's clearly within its interests
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAH

What an absolutely amazing read

There is a 0% chance china commits anything significant to Russia
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 9:00 pm
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45740 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

Let us speak plainly. A permanent member of the United Nations Security Council invaded its neighbor, attempted to erase a sovereign state from the map. Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets of the United Nations Charter — no more important than the clear prohibition against countries taking the territory of their neighbor by force. Again, just today, President Putin has made overt nuclear threats against Europe and a reckless disregard for the responsibilities of the non-proliferation regime. Now Russia is calling — calling up more soldiers to join the fight. And the Kremlin is organizing a sham referenda to try to annex parts of Ukraine, an extremely significant violation of the U.N. Charter. This world should see these outrageous acts for what they are. Putin claims he had to act because Russia was threatened. But no one threatened Russia, and no one other than Russia sought conflict. In fact, we warned it was coming. And with many of you, we worked to try to avert it. Putin’s own words make his true purpose unmistakable. Just before he invaded, Putin asserted — and I quote — Ukraine was “created by Russia” and never had, quote, “real statehood.” And now we see attacks on schools, railway stations, hospitals, wa- — on centers of Ukrainian history and culture. In the past, even more horrifying evidence of Russia’s atrocity and war crimes: mass graves uncovered in Izyum; bodies, according to those that excavated those bodies, showing signs of torture. This war is about extinguishing Ukraine’s right to exist as a state, plain and simple, and Ukraine’s right to exist as a people. Whoever you are, wherever you live, whatever you believe, that should not — that should make your blood run cold.


Son of a f**king biotch. I’m going to have to agree with Biden on something. I feel so dirty and ashamed of myself.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21048 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

Son of a f**king biotch. I’m going to have to agree with Biden on something. I feel so dirty and ashamed of myself.


I certainly did not vote for him, but I have to say that he's done a reasonably good job on Ukraine.

Of course, I doubt Russia would have invaded had Biden not made us look horribly weak with the insane disaster in Afghanistan, but...
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21048 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:15 pm to
Like I was saying earlier:

@WarMonitor3

quote:

Ukrainian artillery is pounding Russian positions very heavily today on the southern frontline from Orikhiv to Hulyaipole area.


This is SE of Zaporizhzhia. I speculated earlier today that a new Ukrainian attack could happen in this area, as Ukraine opens up a third offensive.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45740 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

And this stupid annexation is a huge escalation. I don't know if it's going to mean NATO tanks, fighter aircraft, ATACMS, or all of the above, but it's going to result in a much faster Ukrainian victory, because Russia cannot be allowed to succeed with such a plan. Russia is still strong enough that IF Russia could stop tripping over its own dick it could do whatever it wants in eastern Ukraine and no one - not even the US - could stop them. There’s no “allowing” them to do anything in Donbas. It’s just they’re too incompetent to stop tripping over their own dick so they can’t do anything. In other words, it has nothing to do with us being so powerful and everything to do with them just sucking that bad.


Russia’s problems run so deep that it can’t stop tripping over it’s own dick. Even know that it’s mobilizing and pulling equipment out of storage it’s tripping over it’s own dick in the process. 300,000 troops is not going to be enough to overwhelm Ukraine even if they were trained and equipped. Instead Russia is sending them to the front with little to no training and sending them out with 30-50 year old equipment. Ukraine on the other hand mobilized back in February. It’s spent 7 months training between 500,000-750,000 reservists (some have gone to the fighting and some have gone back home but able to be recalled in 48 hours). That is why Ukraine was able to execute three offensives in this war (Kyiv, Kharkiv city, and Kharkiv oblast) in which they successfully used armor and mechanized infantry together to push the Russians back without losing many tanks to ATGMs. Meanwhile Russia despite having the better equipment and superior numbers (initially) has only been able to achieve success bu encircling a city (Mariupol and Severodonetsk) and then shelling it to ruins and sending human wave attacks to bull rush positions.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:18 pm to
ISW Update Sept 21

quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.


quote:

Putin and Shoigu emphatically said that only reservists who have completed their initial military service will be mobilized, making clear that Russia will not be expanding conscription.


quote:

It is not clear how much of the Russian reserve has already been deployed to fight in Ukraine.


quote:

Russian reserves are poorly trained to begin with and receive no refresher training once their conscription period is completed


quote:

Reports conflict regarding how much training reservists called up in the partial mobilization will receive


quote:

Putin emphatically did not say that the Russian nuclear umbrella would cover annexed areas of Ukraine nor did he tie mobilization to the annexation.


quote:

Putin’s speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukraine continues counter-offensives against occupied territories after annexation.


quote:

Putin did not connect annexation with the partial mobilization either, defending the need for partial mobilization by referring to the length of the lines along which Russian forces are now fighting and Western assistance to Ukraine.


quote:

Russia’s partial mobilization will not transform the war this year and may or may not have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to continue operations at their current level next year.


quote:

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced “partial mobilization” will not materially affect the course of the war in the coming months.

Putin did not explicitly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counter-offensive operations to liberate occupied areas after Russian annexation.

Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City as part of an operational-level interdiction campaign against Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya.

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing crypto-mobilization efforts regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization.

Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely increasing law enforcement and filtration measures in occupied areas of Ukraine in preparation for Russia’s sham annexation referenda.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45740 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

This is SE of Zaporizhzhia. I speculated earlier today that a new Ukrainian attack could happen in this area, as Ukraine opens up a third offensive.


I have been saying to watch that area for over a month. Ukraine has Russia trapped in Kherson and they really can’t push the Russians anymore since they have decided to avoid shelling the city to ruins and clearing the city block by block. They can sit and starve the Russians out in Kherson, but they can’t let the momentum stop. Right now Russia has a thin defensive line that stretches from the area around the ZNPP which is on the Dnieper River to Berdanysk on the Sea of Azov. Once that defensive line is pierced; Russia will have no natural defenses to use until it falls all the way back to Crimea. Unless Ukraine just decides to focus on the Luhansk oblast, an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia oblast pushing towards Crimea makes the most sense. That would liberate two oblasts and push Russia back to the pre-2/24/22 conflict lines which would be another major win for Ukraine and humiliation for Russia.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21048 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Right now Russia has a thin defensive line that stretches from the area around the ZNPP which is on the Dnieper River to Berdanysk on the Sea of Azov. Once that defensive line is pierced; Russia will have no natural defenses to use until it falls all the way back to Crimea. Unless Ukraine just decides to focus on the Luhansk oblast, an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia oblast pushing towards Crimea makes the most sense. That would liberate two oblasts and push Russia back to the pre-2/24/22 conflict lines which would be another major win for Ukraine and humiliation for Russia.


Right. We've talked about it before, but for those who don't read every post, the Russian losses in Kharkiv are disappointing and embarrassing to Russia, and they doom any hope of conquering the rest of the Donbas, but those losses will not end the war. Nor would retaking Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

But if Ukraine takes Melitopol, then the war is likely over, as Russia's goose is completely cooked at that point.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 9:38 pm
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45740 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:41 pm to
quote:

certainly did not vote for him, but I have to say that he's done a reasonably good job on Ukraine.


Meh. I disagree. He gets a C- in my book. Sanctions not strong enough and the USA is atleast three months behind on supplying weapons systems to Ukraine. Imagine if Ukraine had gotten HIMARS in March when they requested them? I’m willing to bet that Severodonetsk wouldn’t have fallen. Ukrainian pilots should be finishing up training on F16s and Ukrainian tankers should be finishing up learning how to use M1A1s right now instead of the USA just now considering supplying those weapons to Ukraine.

quote:

Of course, I doubt Russia would have invaded had Biden not made us look horribly weak with the insane disaster in Afghanistan


Agree 100% there but Afghanistan is over and Russia did invade. Those two failures can’t be undone, but Biden and the rest of NATO could be more proactive instead of reactive when it comes to aiding Ukraine. Biden’s administration should start selling off assets seized from Russia and use some of the money to reimburse ourselves and then tell Ukraine they have an open line of credit for whatever the remainder is and ask what they need.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45740 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 9:55 pm to
quote:

Nor would retaking Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.


Actually it would. If Lysychansk falls then all but one of major the road and rail crossing between Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and Russia are in HIMARs range (even without ATCMs). Since the Seviersky Donetsk River makes up the border between Russia and Ukraine in that area of the country those links can be severed by destroying or significantly damaging 6 bridges with HIMARS. With the Rasputitsia quickly approaching the Ukrainians could really weaken the Russian position in the Donbas by destroying those bridges. They wouldn’t be able to build pontoon bridges over a swollen SD River since they would be in HIMARs range. Since the SD River would not freeze thick enough to support supply convos until late winter if it ever did freeze thick enough, Russia would face the prospect of limited supplies into Luhansk and Donetsk for 6 months or more.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16148 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 10:13 pm to
Go watch Dr. Strangelove. Its on Youtube for free.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16148 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 10:14 pm to
The Turkish drones are Israeli with design sold to Turkey in 2008.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
33017 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 10:15 pm to
And if we start marching in Moscow, they might have a point. If a precedent gets set that any nuclear power can invade whoever it wants and will use nukes if resisted, there is no longer any legitimate argument against runaway nuclear proliferation.
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