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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:33 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45990 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:33 pm to
quote:

General mobilization 7 months into this conflict comes with a whole host of consequences domestically for Putin… it’s basically admitting failure of the SMO… it would be expensive and very unpopular.



General mobilization at this point would lead to the downfall of Putain's inner circle and Putain would succumb to complications (in the form of 9x18 mm hole in the back of his head) of thyroid cancer before the end of the year. Putin f**ked up when he did not take all of Ukraine in 2014 and he doubled-down on that f**k up when he did not mobilize or at least partially mobilize when it became obvious that this was not going to be a short special military operation back in March.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16485 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:42 pm to
Typical under 300,000 BPD refineries with low Nelson Complexity Index. All below 10 where in TX and LA almost all are at least 15 if not 18. In other words, they cannot dig deeply into a barrel of oil as here in the USA, residuals are turned all into asphalt, or used as boiler fuel, and not other fuels.

For the most part these are partnerships with Rosneft only owning less part, along with BP, Shell, Exxon, etc... Rosneft does own the Bavarian refinery which is the one that receives all of its crude from Russia. The other from Trieste, where the oil can come from anywhere.

My guess is that this gave Russia 10% at most of refining capacity of Germany, with the total capacity of these being not quite 30% of Germany's refining capacity.

Update, accounts for 12% and were not operating partner except maybe one.
This post was edited on 9/18/22 at 2:59 pm
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

What are the chances that after their term of enlistment Wagner just executes them? I imagine 99% of them are headed for a death sentence one way or another.


I have saw that only 10% of the convict troops that have deployed thus far have survived. Not a very good survival rate if true.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:57 pm to
quote:

quote:
Many in the German establishment, he said, resented US dominance in energy matters and disliked “this idea of a global fungible market in oil that’s traded in dollars and protected by the US navy”. That resentment, he said, was one of the reasons why Germany kept out of the US war in Iraq in 2003. And it was why it suited Germany to have direct access to Russian oil and gas.


Oh the irony.



Did he mention the East German Communist Merkel and her policy/belief that if you trade with Russia she could draw them in to the west? Merkel was a disaster.
Posted by SwampGar
Texas
Member since Jan 2020
1486 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

Just because I’m pissed that we’re given Ukrainian conmen blank checks and get pissed every time I see us arming state funded Nazis



Ahhhhh….. there it is. My guy. If one thing, consistent.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
31155 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

mass mobilization.


Not enough public support for this.


Russian TV is working hard on this by trying to convince the public they are actually fighting NATO forces... whole divisions...

YT

Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:07 pm to
I have said this for awhile that China is going to swoop in to all of those former Soviet "stan" countries and establish a dominant influence at the expense of Putin and Russia. China will take advantage of the situation and screw Russia. Losing the war isn't all Ivan has to worry about.

Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:23 pm to
Agree. Xi sees the weakness and can quickly capitalize within his existing long term planning for his own ascension. I’d still love to have been a fly on the wall for Putin and Xi’s discussions before the Olympics that potentially lead Putin to delay the invasion and then this most recent in person meeting. I’d need to understand Chinese and Russian though of course.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16485 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:23 pm to
Used to clear minefields by marching through them, like in WWII?
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45990 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

I have said this for awhile that China is going to swoop in to all of those former Soviet "stan" countries and establish a dominant influence at the expense of Putin and Russia. China will take advantage of the situation and screw Russia. Losing the war isn't all Ivan has to worry about.


As long as Russia or China keeps a dictator in power that keeps those countries from becoming terrorist or extremist training grounds then more power to them.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16485 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:25 pm to
Basically the Urbanites are okay with war if others have to serve. Almost all of Russian's military is made up of rural minorities
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16485 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

I have said this for awhile that China is going to swoop in to all of those former Soviet "stan" countries and establish a dominant influence at the expense of Putin and Russia. China will take advantage of the situation and screw Russia. Losing the war isn't all Ivan has to worry about.


China has long had better trade with most of them, especially Kazakhstan. Road and Belt will provide rail service to Europe that doesn't have to go through Russia. Of course, it will go to China
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:39 pm to
Correct. I doubt Putin has any "recruiting stations" in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

Putin is getting desperate though. He might snatch up old ruff fish and send him for cannon fodder.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16485 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:53 pm to
:lol:
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8813 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:59 pm to
Belarus is just Putin’s little bitch. They know they don’t want any part of Poland. Poland would wipe Belarus out in short order. They have built up a very strong military for the size of their country and it’s very modern weaponry.
Posted by Errerrerrwere
Member since Aug 2015
44412 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:05 pm to
Russia waving that white flag yet?

Soon...
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
31155 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

I’d need to understand Chinese and Russian though of course.


When I mentioned being a fly on the wall in Rutin's war room I suggested I would need a Star Trek universal translator.

I also think English should be declared the international language of war like aviation so I can follow this one better. Selfish prick that I am.
Posted by ImaObserver
Member since Aug 2019
2515 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

Poland would wipe Belarus out in short order. They have built up a very strong military for the size of their country and it’s very modern weaponry.


And the Poland of today incorporates the descendants of the Prussian and Pomeranian peoples who were historically known as fierce warriors also.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8813 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:27 pm to
Prussian officers are historically some of the best officers in the world.
Posted by AuBeerStud
Michigan
Member since Feb 2013
546 posts
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:39 pm to
Is Russian forces fighting each other in Kherson tonight? Nobody knows what’s going on. Lots of gunfire.
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