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Message
It's been more than a month since Ohio started reopening - where is the surge?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:23 am
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:23 am
It's been more than a month since Ohio started reopening. Why haven't we had a surge in coronavirus cases?
LINK
COLUMBUS – As several states start to see a surge in COVID-19 cases since reopening, Ohio has not.
Ohio has gradually lifted its stay-at-home order over the past six weeks. The result: a plateau in newly reported cases and a decline in hospitalizations, both reported and estimates of people currently hospitalized.
Since May 1:
the average number of newly reported cases per week has dropped from 476 to 391
the number of weekly cases for the week ending Monday was the lowest since the second week of April
the number of currently hospitalized patients went from an estimated 1,067 to 513
the percent of tests returning positive results each day has dropped from 10.7% to 3.2%
a smaller percentage of people who have tested positive for the virus (not antibodies) have been hospitalized.
"We're not seeing any significant increase or reestablishment of a wave or a peak in Ohio and that’s great," said Mark Cameron, an infectious disease researcher and professor in the school of medicine at Case Western Reserve University. "What that could mean is that people are still generally following the guidelines."
LINK
COLUMBUS – As several states start to see a surge in COVID-19 cases since reopening, Ohio has not.
Ohio has gradually lifted its stay-at-home order over the past six weeks. The result: a plateau in newly reported cases and a decline in hospitalizations, both reported and estimates of people currently hospitalized.
Since May 1:
the average number of newly reported cases per week has dropped from 476 to 391
the number of weekly cases for the week ending Monday was the lowest since the second week of April
the number of currently hospitalized patients went from an estimated 1,067 to 513
the percent of tests returning positive results each day has dropped from 10.7% to 3.2%
a smaller percentage of people who have tested positive for the virus (not antibodies) have been hospitalized.
"We're not seeing any significant increase or reestablishment of a wave or a peak in Ohio and that’s great," said Mark Cameron, an infectious disease researcher and professor in the school of medicine at Case Western Reserve University. "What that could mean is that people are still generally following the guidelines."
10
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:25 am to goofball
Just give it a month
The low iqs have already been sent some new chart showing Cali and Fl are the new hot spots
The low iqs have already been sent some new chart showing Cali and Fl are the new hot spots
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:31 am to goofball
I am firmly in the reopen-and-weather-the-consequences camp, but the surge from reopening will occur about 10 weeks after reopening. This is because at first it is healthy young people who go out, and the disease spreads among them. It shows up in increasing cases but not in hospitalizations and deaths. Eventually it works its way back to their elderly relatives and shows up in the hospitals.
There is also the possibility that summer dampens it, and the recrudescence occurs in the winter. Another possibility, that I’ve heard called The Dry Tinder theory, is that many people are immune due to other previous corona infections. Those who are not immune - the Dry Tinder - are the ones getting sick in the first wave. The second wave will be small because, between those who were always immune and those who caught it in the first wave, we will be well on the way to herd immunity.
There is also the possibility that summer dampens it, and the recrudescence occurs in the winter. Another possibility, that I’ve heard called The Dry Tinder theory, is that many people are immune due to other previous corona infections. Those who are not immune - the Dry Tinder - are the ones getting sick in the first wave. The second wave will be small because, between those who were always immune and those who caught it in the first wave, we will be well on the way to herd immunity.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:34 am to goofball
Not as many idiots out rioting.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:41 am to goofball
Ohio has done a good job with tracking and focusing on the reproductive number which to me tells a lot of the story. Dewine has continued to get blasted by the "open all the shite up now" crowd but has taken a pretty cautious and tiered approach, especially compared to republican counterparts. The precautions put in place have been overkill IMO but the results are speaking for themselves.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:44 am to SprintFun
Got rid of Dr.Acton. Got rid of the Virus.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:49 am to ScottFowler
My Governor said we will not be going back to lockdown regardless. 
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:58 am to Penrod
quote:
am firmly in the reopen-and-weather-the-consequences camp, but the surge from reopening will occur about 10 weeks after reopening
Hasn’t been the case in AZ. We have seen a massive surge a month after reopening our state.
Not just in cases, but in the percent of tests done that come back positive. Also in hospitalizations due to COVID. Even my pediatric ICU at work has children with COVID needing ICU care. Where I work...we have had to open up another COVID unit yesterday cause we have more than doubled the amount of COVID patients needing to be admitted in the past week.
I don’t see us shutting down my state again, nor do I advocate for it. But I just wish more would proceed with some caution and remember the virus hasn’t magically disappeared.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:00 am to Penrod
quote:
I am firmly in the reopen-and-weather-the-consequences camp, but the surge from reopening will occur about 10 weeks after reopening.
You mean when it starts to cool off and people spend more time inside in closer proximity? Lol
This post was edited on 6/17/20 at 9:02 am
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:12 am to goofball
Yet Texas is going up
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:13 am to Penrod
quote:
I am firmly in the reopen-and-weather-the-consequences camp, but the surge from reopening will occur about 10 weeks after reopening. This is because at first it is healthy young people who go out, and the disease spreads among them. It shows up in increasing cases but not in hospitalizations and deaths. Eventually it works its way back to their elderly relatives and shows up in the hospitals.
There is also the possibility that summer dampens it, and the recrudescence occurs in the winter. Another possibility, that I’ve heard called The Dry Tinder theory, is that many people are immune due to other previous corona infections. Those who are not immune - the Dry Tinder - are the ones getting sick in the first wave. The second wave will be small because, between those who were always immune and those who caught it in the first wave, we will be well on the way to herd immunity.
This started out informative then I realized you covered every possible outcome minus giraffes taking over the earth in your post
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:18 am to goofball
So there's clearly a surge nationwide, yet you found one source in one area that shows a slowing.
What point are you trying to make here?
What point are you trying to make here?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:22 am to BayouBlitz
quote:
So there's clearly a surge nationwide
There is?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:26 am to goofball
quote:
Ohio started reopening - where is the surge?
Bucknuts are so naturally repulsive that they practice involuntary and automatic social distancing.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:29 am to BayouBlitz
quote:
So there's clearly a surge nationwide
Could there be more cases because testing is increasing nationwide?
I've only been following Louisiana. I don't know what the testing looks like nationally.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:38 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
Yet Texas is going up
And Florida may return to lockdown status
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:50 am to burdman
Nebraska never "locked down" but its been about 2 months since basically everything opened up. Mid-May the hospitals in Omaha and Lincoln were getting pretty full, but the last several weeks seen a sharp decline in positive tests and hospitalizations. Traffic is back to normal levels.
Uncle lives in a retirement village and they've been locked down the entire time. He hasn't seen anybody for months. They did a great job early, have had no cases. Family will be allowed to visit starting in a few days. We're gonna watch some golf Sunday
Uncle lives in a retirement village and they've been locked down the entire time. He hasn't seen anybody for months. They did a great job early, have had no cases. Family will be allowed to visit starting in a few days. We're gonna watch some golf Sunday
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:27 am to Penrod
quote:
I am firmly in the reopen-and-weather-the-consequences camp, but the surge from reopening will occur about 10 weeks after reopening
That's a pretty specific time frame you got there. If it doesn't happen after 10 weeks will you change your prediction to 15 like CNN, MSNBC?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 3:13 pm to goofball
Texas hospitalizations for Covid are up 17% in the last 7 days.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 3:57 pm to Penrod
quote:
also the possibility that summer dampens it
Probably not much considering the hot spots now are Florida, Arizona, Texas.
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