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Is all this talk about dropping fertility rates just doomerism?
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:46 am
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:46 am
We get it. We may peak at around 10B later this century and then slowly decline. Here the world population the last 300 years. We seem to have done okay at much lower levels of population. Is all this doomerism just Elon's excuse to not use protection?
Year
Estimated Population
1725
~600 million
1800
~1 billion
1900
~1.65 billion
1950
~2.5 billion
2000
~6 billion
2025
~8.1 billion
Year
Estimated Population
1725
~600 million
1800
~1 billion
1900
~1.65 billion
1950
~2.5 billion
2000
~6 billion
2025
~8.1 billion
5
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:47 am to hikingfan
quote:
Is all this talk about dropping fertility rates just doomerism?
No
Do you know what exponential means?
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:50 am to theunknownknight
quote:
Do you know what exponential means?
Exponential growth appears as a straight line on a logarithmic scale?
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:51 am to hikingfan
The world needs less stupid people to survive. It's fine.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:51 am to hikingfan
the reason it’s a problem is western economies are built on the assumption and need of continued growth forever
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:52 am to kywildcatfanone
And yet, here we are.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:53 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
The world needs less stupid people to survive. It's fine
We’re getting more stupid people in the US
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:53 am to hikingfan
quote:
Exponential growth appears as a straight line on a logarithmic scale?
So your answer is no apparently
Exponential = the rate of growth is proportional to the current size.
Limiting factors exist in reality, but not at the scale we are starting to see
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:55 am to Draconian Sanctions
Western economies need to adapt to stable and/or decreasing populations, at least until space colonization is possible. There's only so much available dirt on this big rock.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:57 am to El Segundo Guy
quote:
There's only so much available dirt on this big rock.
If you stacked the world like a giant refugee camp, earth could sustain 7 trillion people
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:59 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
The world needs less stupid people to survive. It's fine.
The stupid ones are by far out producing just normal people.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:01 am to theunknownknight
quote:
Exponential = the rate of growth is proportional to the current size.
I guess in theory, population decline can be exponential if each generation is significantly smaller than the last, which is currently a problem only in Japan, South Korea and Italy, no?
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:01 am to hikingfan
It is a problem if populations were to decline because our social systems are are structured like giant Ponzi schemes, and entire segments of our population have allowed themselves to become so dependent upon them they would not know how to survive without them.
Additionally, since poor people tend to reproduce at a much higher rate, it will cause massive imbalances in the class system and social upheaval around the world. So, fewer rich people/ more desperate poor people. This assumes that the poorest can't figure out how to become scrappy and productive, and with the current welfare state they certainly aren't incentivized to do so.
Add in medical advancement increasing not only the lifespan of the elderly (largely non productive citizens) but also the costs of care, the productive man in the middle will be extra squeezed.
in summary, we are fricked if the productive class stops having babies above replacement.
Additionally, since poor people tend to reproduce at a much higher rate, it will cause massive imbalances in the class system and social upheaval around the world. So, fewer rich people/ more desperate poor people. This assumes that the poorest can't figure out how to become scrappy and productive, and with the current welfare state they certainly aren't incentivized to do so.
Add in medical advancement increasing not only the lifespan of the elderly (largely non productive citizens) but also the costs of care, the productive man in the middle will be extra squeezed.
in summary, we are fricked if the productive class stops having babies above replacement.
This post was edited on 6/2/25 at 9:04 am
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:08 am to hikingfan
Chemtrails have led to the fertility decline. - Yoga Girl
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:14 am to El Segundo Guy
quote:
Western economies need to adapt to stable and/or decreasing populations, at least until space colonization is possible. There's only so much available dirt on this big rock.
Western leaders: best I can do is unlimited 3d world immigration to keep labor cheap.
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