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re: Invest 96L and Tropical Depression 14L: 5-day forecasts
Posted on 9/15/17 at 10:49 am to wallowinit
Posted on 9/15/17 at 10:49 am to wallowinit
GFS has a small low spinning up and the florida panhandle in a week or so. something else to possibly keep an eye on. odds of it happening are a crapshoot at the moment but its possible.
2
Posted on 9/15/17 at 10:52 am to Captain Ron
quote:
TD14L has the lead to be named Lee, but it won't make US landfall. 96L still looks like a potential bitch.
The global models don't really develop TD14 very much, so it may not get to TS status at all.
They both develop 96L, but not for another few days.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 10:53 am to Pedro
quote:
GFS has a small low spinning up and the florida panhandle in a week or so. something else to possibly keep an eye on. odds of it happening are a crapshoot at the moment but its possible.
Yeah it is 10+ days out on the 6z GFS.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 11:03 am to Pedro
quote:
GFS has a small low spinning up and the florida panhandle in a week or so. something else to possibly keep an eye on. odds of it happening are a crapshoot at the moment but its possible.
That fits with the upcoming pattern. It wouldn't be surprising to see a system spin up down there and move north towards the Gulf. GFS is probably rushing things but something to watch next week.
Also, 96L probably needs a dedicated thread since it could be a US threat. Unfortunately, it will likely impact parts of the Caribbean and Bahamas that are trying to recover from Irma.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 11:52 am to rds dc
Late out GFS, so let's not start the evacs yet. That pattern doesn't look good for the east coast.
This post was edited on 9/15/17 at 11:53 am
Posted on 9/15/17 at 11:59 am to Duke
yep it was real clever! 
Posted on 9/15/17 at 1:11 pm to otowntiger
This is the latest HWRF, the Islands do not need another major storm this year.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 1:48 pm to lsuman25
quote:
This is the latest HWRF, the Islands do not need another major storm this year.
That would be all kinds of suck. Luckily, the HWRF isn't really that useful prior to genesis.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 2:26 pm to rds dc
Luckily with Jose spinning off NE eventually it should be clear as day how our bremuda high steers 96-L. Clear as a day during a Saharan sandstorm
Posted on 9/15/17 at 2:29 pm to Duke
quote:
Luckily with Jose spinning off NE eventually it should be clear as day how our bremuda high steers 96-L. Clear as a day during a Saharan sandstorm
Yea, Jose needs to hang around. If it slips out then that would be bad news.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 2:47 pm to rds dc
So if Jose hangs around long enough it would provide a weakness for 96L down the road, but if if goes away quicker the ridge build in and the storm goes more west. Is that the gist of it?
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:50 pm to Duke
quote:
Late out GFS, so let's not start the evacs yet. That pattern doesn't look good for the east coast.
General Lee gonna hit DC. The south is risin baws!
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:02 pm to Captain Ron
Those latest spaghetti models posted on the first page are showing sure fire re-curving storms. Right now they are absolutely not looking threatening to lthe mainland at all. They do threaten the islands of course but they give me no concern for the CONUS.
This post was edited on 9/15/17 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:03 pm to Krokodil
quote:
so should we start evaculating now or what?
Yep if you're in NOLA and it's named Lee.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:13 pm to Macfly
I think New Orleans is going to get hit by Lee.
This post was edited on 9/15/17 at 4:14 pm
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