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If demand for home is so high, why aren't more people building?

Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:29 am
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6103 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:29 am
Forgive my ignorance here-- I read about the housing market like most of us do and one thing I see repeated often is the shortage of single family houses in the country. Experts say we're around 8 million homes short of what we "need."

From my basic economics lessons I read that supply usually rises to meet demand at whatever price point is sensible, yet that doesn't seem to be happening. So I'm curious what's causing this:

1 Is the home building and selling process just too flaky and drawn out to where builders, sellers, and buyers fail often enough to where it's just not worth it?

2 Is the home shortage people talk about actually just a home shortage where people want to live for cheaper than is realistic (I'm in Dallas and there are probably hundreds available for cheap 40 minutes outside of town and very few available in the city).

3 Are people's expectations for what a house does / should cost just out of whack and they're not actually financially prepared to buy one?

4 Something else?
Posted by bad93ex
Walnut Cove
Member since Sep 2018
33599 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:31 am to
Money is more expensive now with the rate hikes.
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
59951 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:32 am to
Anyone starting the process to build a house right now would be insane IMO
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6103 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:33 am to
So it sounds like people are just not accepting of what it costs to build or own a house presently?
Posted by GreatLakesTiger24
Member since May 2012
58705 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:33 am to
a huge part is well paying/white collar jobs have been centralized into about 10 metro areas.

quote:

(I'm in Dallas and there are probably hundreds available for cheap 40 minutes outside of town
40 minutes outside of town is 20 miles away and the houses are starting at 500k
Posted by sonicbaw350
Member since May 2021
422 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:34 am to
Was about to build then costs went up $150k and rates doubled. Nope.
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
22685 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:34 am to
One of the biggest breaks I've ever had in my life was building my house during the first Trump era and locking in my nice 2.5% interest rate.
This post was edited on 4/24/23 at 11:44 am
Posted by 777Tiger
Member since Mar 2011
87689 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Anyone starting the process to build a house right now would be insane IMO



drawing plans up and considering one more build but I'm not sure I've got the energy left in me
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42736 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:36 am to
quote:

40 minutes outside of town is 20 miles away and the houses are starting at 500k


Celina TX, closer to OK than DFW

Worse thing is businesses still havent adjusted COL's and trying to hang on to the TX standards of yonder 10 years back and don't realize were on a collision course with SF Bay Area pricing
Posted by sidewalkside
rent free in yo head
Member since Sep 2021
4157 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:37 am to
The companies that build the volume needed to even scratch the surface of what is "needed" look at multi year projections. if they can't get clarity on the price of building supplies, the price of labor, the price for buyers to borrow and the overall outlook for the economy they are not inclined to launch massive projects that take many years to complete. Uncertainty is the enemy of the builders.
Posted by bad93ex
Walnut Cove
Member since Sep 2018
33599 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Was about to build then costs went up $150k and rates doubled. Nope.



Same story, was prepping to buy a home then prices jumped $150-200k on homes seemingly overnight.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
293015 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:39 am to
quote:

drawing plans up and considering one more build but I'm not sure I've got the energy left in me


Just helped a friend with his cabin, I kind of have the fever again. Easy to draw up, make the cut list.
Posted by vegas-tiger
NV desert
Member since Dec 2003
2093 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:40 am to
Thousands of empty homes where people don't want to live. i.e. Detroit
Posted by 777Tiger
Member since Mar 2011
87689 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:40 am to
quote:

Easy to draw up, make the cut list.



that's what we're doing, designing the absolute wish list place and then paring it down from there
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6103 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:40 am to
quote:

40 minutes outside of town is 20 miles away and the houses are starting at 500k


This is patently untrue. There are houses for 150-300k in every direction. I'm looking at listings now.
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6103 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:42 am to
quote:

The companies that build the volume needed to even scratch the surface of what is "needed" look at multi year projections.


This is what I'm curious about. So basically the companies that actually move the needle have no confidence they'll have buyers lined up and have no way to predict their costs, so do minimal amounts and the shortage continues?
Posted by sidewalkside
rent free in yo head
Member since Sep 2021
4157 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:42 am to
We've boon looking at a complete remodel and the general contractors have flat out said the price has gone up 100%. I renovation that would have cost $200K is now quoted at $400K. I refuse to believe they aren't just lining their pockets and using covid/supply/interest rates as excuse to make more money than they ever had.
Posted by Shexter
Prairieville
Member since Feb 2014
18919 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:42 am to

I had no choice but to refinance after divorce property settlement. I financed $10,000 less than my original mortgage, yet my house note rose by nearly $200. I went from around 3% interest to over 6% interest.

Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
293015 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:44 am to
quote:


that's what we're doing, designing the absolute wish list place and then paring it down from there


I used to do some design/estimating in S'port. Fairgrounds field was one of my debacles. The structural steel.

Posted by Crowknowsbest
Member since May 2012
26755 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 11:44 am to
quote:

a huge part is well paying/white collar jobs have been centralized into about 10 metro areas.

This, and builders in those markets are never going to be able to build quickly or cheaply enough to satisfy the surge in demand, particularly in areas proximate to the CBD.
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