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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:31 am to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45819 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:31 am to
Well shite, so what you're saying is that it could just as easily be Louisiana as Florida? Am I reading that correctly? It's late September/early October. We're supposed to have 90 degree fall days during that time, not hurricanes.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45819 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:32 am to
quote:

Levi and Tidbits already bracing for the meltdown.

They've already melted down. I haven't see the full model run at all yet this morning because it won't load.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67067 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:32 am to
quote:

Do you think it’s a bias, or actually plausible due to the shear from Fiona coming from the NE? I could see the shear causing convection to be away from the center to the SW and it pulling the center that direction as Fiona moves away.

If it isn't a bias, that's exactly what would cause it. The reason it is a bit dubious is due to where exactly the convection is fired.
Posted by sp22
Member since Jan 2019
757 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:33 am to
We are ridin with the euro itt
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45819 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:34 am to
quote:

We are ridin with the euro

Yea, unless it's the one that caves
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:36 am to
quote:

biases of each model do give me some pause.

Nah, hit play not pause.
Give us hope
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
126049 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:37 am to
Just closed on a ranch outside bozeman old sport. Might have to head up there.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45819 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Just closed on a ranch outside bozeman old sport. Might have to head up there.



Did your private meteorologist tell you to head up there? If so, I'm worried.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1928 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:39 am to
Pivotal Weather has been rock solid for keeping the models running on time. GFS rolling out now:

LINK
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
164665 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:39 am to
Stupendous!
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77263 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:40 am to
Ricky Proehl
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
52905 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:40 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 2:39 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
126049 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:41 am to
Az Hakim
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
164665 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:42 am to
Todd Pinkston
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
22040 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:42 am to
quote:

It’s almost impossible to read through the BS. It’s a shame because there’s a couple people on there that know and give valuable info but that other 90% are complete idiots


I'm one of the complete idiots, although I try to ask questions to learn and understand, and do not try to post bogus hype from social media.

Anyway, once this thing forms a center, I'm in favor of two stickies - a general discussion thread, and one where only Duke and a handful of other trusted TD weather dudes post solid information and everyone else is locked out from posting (if such a thing is possible)
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 10:43 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45819 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:43 am to
Yep and so far, the GFS is slightly north of it's previous run and about the same strength. Hopefully that's the beginning of it caving to the EURO.
Posted by VermilionTiger
Member since Dec 2012
38359 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Anyway, once this thing forms a center, I'm in favor of two stickies - a general discussion thread, and one where only Duke and a handful of other trusted TD weather dudes post solid information.


Sounds like a liability issue waiting to happen
Posted by BhamBlazeDog
Birmingham
Member since Aug 2018
3798 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:44 am to


F me, this does not look good for the Cape, I'm heading down on Saturday and will be there until next Sunday hopefully. At least if it develops I'll be down there to board the house up.
Posted by VermilionTiger
Member since Dec 2012
38359 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:45 am to
quote:

F me, this does not look good for the Cape, I'm heading down on Saturday and will be there until next Sunday hopefully. At least if it develops I'll be down there to board the house up.


Thank you for this detailed update on your life that only you care about
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
20389 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Yep and so far, the GFS is slightly north of it's previous run and about the same strength. Hopefully that's the beginning of it caving to the EURO.



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