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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:15 pm to BallsEleven
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:15 pm to BallsEleven
AVNI can kick rocks
0
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:16 pm to BallsEleven
Guess one thing to keep an eye on in the short term is see if it does actually gain some latitude before it bends back towards the west-northwest
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:17 pm to BallsEleven
Maybe half an H
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:17 pm to Ingeniero
quote:
GFS shifting west, Euro shifting east
18z euro agreed with a weak storm trekking west across the Caribbean in line with the GEFS ensembles and other model runs. However it only goes to 90 hours so don’t know where it would end up in the gulf
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:17 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
Looks like we have a small jump back east on the 0z here.
Louisiana
Wessssiiide
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:18 pm to lsuman25
Yeah, on those looks like a bit better agreement closer to Jamaica around 96hours which is good.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:18 pm to RummelTiger
Chris Franklin checked late season storm track history within 50 miles of Nola and Tampa. Didn't say over what time scale. Seemed to favor the Euro solution for 98L and used this as an example.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:18 pm to Ingeniero
quote:
That reminds me, what's that hurricane guy on Facebook saying? After Fiona didn't end up like he thought I bet he's hyping this to be a category 6 that does a few loops and hits New Orleans 3-4 times
Love how he picks the part of the run where it looks bad for NOLA instead of the flora Bama landfall
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:18 pm to LSUTiger23
quote:
Maybe half an H
Bravo
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:19 pm to BallsEleven
Levi Cowan is one of the best sources for good information on the tropics. So I encourage you to watch this video. There is not even certainty in the next few days on where this storm will track, so to try and guess where it will be in a week is even more difficult.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:20 pm to deltaland
He's such a douche
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:20 pm to deuce985
Yeah I hear you, like I said I know my opinion is impacted by my experience
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:20 pm to BallsEleven
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:22 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
Looks like we have a small jump back east on the 0z here.
Still confusing as all the lines pretty much go over Cuba here but the model run has it over the Yucatan and straight back to where Ida hit
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:22 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
We don't want ensembles moving west right now,
"Speak for yourself john Alden". I know where you're coming from, but we in FL don't want it either.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:24 pm to OmniPundit
quote:
but we in FL don't want it either.
Take yer whoopin like a man
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:25 pm to OmniPundit
Florida has been unusually lucky considering how active the past few years have been. You guys have been hit hard with Irma/Michael, etc. but it's kinda amazing almost everything that slipped into the gulf hit Louisiana considering Florida's land mass and historical landfalls.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:27 pm to BallsEleven
East works for me.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:27 pm to lsuman25
Just to lighten the mood when the models come out that have the hurricane hunter data in them watch they get more confused. 
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