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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:38 pm to
Posted by alabamabuckeye
Member since Jun 2010
22247 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:38 pm to
So odd, Euro has it east, brushing Key West and up the west coast of FL. That’s a relatively hard north turn before Cuba.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 1:39 pm
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
46133 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:38 pm to
They were really lined up together yesterday which according to my guy gave him a high degree of confidence of it going into the gulf and he has already stated GFS has a hard on for me and that “Pascagoula to Pensacola “ landfall target which I swear I have heard at least 3 dozen times in my lifetime.

Going fishing tomorrow, while I still can and leave this with you guys to make it not so. Lol.

It’s Florida’s turn
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

How come on Tropical Tidbits, sometimes the Euro run is only 90 hours out, while at other times is goes way beyond that?


The 0z and 12z runs are the full runs.

The 6z and 18z are partial runs.
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
22285 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

Unless you believe the Canadian model which has a hard-on for Louisiana


Even the Canadian model would have almost no affect on Lafayette.

ETA: that would probably be a pretty nice day for Lafayette

This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 1:46 pm
Posted by Sput
Member since Mar 2020
8310 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

I think we could source about 1k Yeti and RTIC coolers to carry the ice.


And all were gifts, no one on the OT has ever purchased a cooler over $15
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
18358 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

And all were gifts, no one on the OT has ever purchased a cooler over $15


Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42527 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:48 pm to
The run on tropical tidbits of the GFS model has it more west than it did.....more of a biloxi/mobile bay landfall
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
21980 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

The 0z and 12z runs are the full runs.

The 6z and 18z are partial runs.


Posted by 08Tiger
Member since Sep 2012
427 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:56 pm to
Tampa Bay cat 4

Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

run on tropical tidbits of the GFS model has it more west than it did.....more of a biloxi/mobile bay landfall

Still florabama
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96923 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:00 pm to
12z euro hasn’t even run to that point yet it’s only on hour 48
Posted by alabamabuckeye
Member since Jun 2010
22247 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:02 pm to
I was looking at EC-Fast
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42527 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

Still florabama


wasn't it more to the west coast of FLA on other runs?


It definitely gets under NOLA then makes a turn (assuming that will be the front guiding it)
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20618 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

That feeling when the Euro is coming in east of the GFS.


The 12z Euro run seems pretty reasonable. Fiona and the incoming trough carve out a pretty big weakness along the EC. 98L would have to slip pretty far to the SW to miss that.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96923 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:05 pm to
Oh that’s new I haven’t used that
Posted by Mr Breeze
The Lunatic Fringe
Member since Dec 2010
6505 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:09 pm to
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

The 12z Euro run seems pretty reasonable. Fiona and the incoming trough carve out a pretty big weakness along the EC. 98L would have to slip pretty far to the SW to miss that.

In English....
I'm guessing this means less powerful than the GFS and to the east?
Posted by iron banks
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
4080 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:09 pm to
Euro solution please.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

So odd, Euro has it east, brushing Key West and up the west coast of FL. That’s a relatively hard north turn before Cuba.


Looks to me like the Euro backs away an upper low to the west in front of it. The move tugs the storm north near Cuba and then the steering we expect to pull it north takes over.
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92030 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

complete opposite this far out


But he doesn't know what he's looking at.

Therefore, just look at the runs...it's basically the pretty version of the models.
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