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Started By
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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:58 am to BallsEleven
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:58 am to BallsEleven
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:59 am
0
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:59 am to LSUTiger23
quote:
This run has a very late, drastic NE turn.
Was just about to say that. I don't like the western shift and i for sure don't like relying on a late NE turn to keep from taking it up the shitter
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:00 pm to UpToPar
Feels like these storms always tease us with a Florida hit and then gradually move west to Louisiana over the course of a week.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:01 pm to Ingeniero
Where do you watch these runs?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:01 pm to SlidellCajun
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:02 pm to SlidellCajun
Tropical Tidbits
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:02 pm to RougeDawg
quote:
Feels like these storms always tease us with a Florida hit and then gradually move west to Louisiana over the course of a week.
always. I always hate seeing Florida so early
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:02 pm to SlidellCajun
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:03 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
There’s always a fine line between losing your mind and dismissing a storm and not being prepared.
What do you do to prepare for a storm that doesn’t even have a defined LLC and is 10 days away if ever? Seems like anything you might do right now with that information are things someone who lives along the gulf coast should generally do before the start of every hurricane season.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:03 pm to UpToPar
So the model run has it clipping the Yucatan and going to florabama... but the ensembles have tightened up to it going over Cuba
What am I missing
What am I missing
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:03 pm to RougeDawg
Wherever it hits right now they seem to be in general agreement it will hit a weakness that gives it a sharper NE turn so the question is how deep does it dig into the gulf and how far west is it by the time it takes the turn? Also, it looks like it was south on the track so this is based on if the storm even forms further to south. You'll get a much better picture by the time this thing forms in the next few days.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:04 pm to maisweh
The models will bounce around until the storm forms.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:04 pm to deltaland
quote:
I think the farther west in the gulf it is the more dry air it will ingest, limiting the high end potential
Maybe, but it didn't bother it on this run. Dry air impacted it more on previous runs than this one. That's a big storm that would do a good job of walling off the dry air and not injesting much of it.
Previously, we saw dry air entrainment become an issue just before landfall, but not as much this run. Shear would be your limiting factor at this point, particularly as it starts to make its turn.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:04 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
What do you do to prepare for a storm that doesn’t even have a defined LLC and is 10 days away if ever
Have your wife start pumping double time and ice down the yeti
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:06 pm to BallsEleven
Next Saturday??
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:07 pm to ned nederlander
quote:You can never have too much alcohol on hand.
What do you do to prepare for a storm that doesn’t even have a defined LLC and is 10 days away if ever? Seems like anything you might do right now with that information are things someone who lives along the gulf coast should generally do before the start of every hurricane season.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:07 pm to rds dc
always concerns me to not be in the path on the early model runs on a system, usually does something dramatically different from what's shown early
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:09 pm to DVinBR
Not necessarily true. They generally give a pretty good window of where you might expect it to go. More complex systems with lots of scenarios tend to drive the models crazier on the longer range.
I remember Irma was painted pretty well with not huge window at all at 7+ days out. It had a small crosshair zone and stuck to it. The impact zones were only larger because of the direction it took so the small margin error could've easily sent it to west florida to georgia and possibly carolinas due to the south approach that took the sharp turn. Wasn't as big as it appeared.
I remember Irma was painted pretty well with not huge window at all at 7+ days out. It had a small crosshair zone and stuck to it. The impact zones were only larger because of the direction it took so the small margin error could've easily sent it to west florida to georgia and possibly carolinas due to the south approach that took the sharp turn. Wasn't as big as it appeared.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:13 pm to rds dc
So what does this mean for my cruise next week out of New Orleans to Nassau and Freeport? I told my wife it was a bad time to book, but the "prices were good." Hopefully it doesn't get too serious.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:15 pm to Mikes My Tiger
quote:
So what does this mean for my cruise next week out of New Orleans to Nassau and Freeport? I told my wife it was a bad time to book, but the "prices were good." Hopefully it doesn't get too serious
Here we go
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