re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

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The spaghetti models have all shifted a lot more west. It looked almost guaranteed FL. Now AL and MS are in play.

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They adjust the models to get more viewers.

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Thanks for the explanation. I’m in year 6 of depending on the weather baws to make decisions regarding my family and I haven’t been let down. We talk a lot of shite on this site, but I truly am grateful for the weather baws.

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Baw, weather is my biggest hobby, since 10 years old, so I do know a little bit but the pros have forgotten way more about weather than I’ll ever know. Please don’t use my weather advice to make decisions regarding your family during weather events !

06z gfs shifted it back over the tip of Cuba and keeps it hitting apalachicola

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If another hits any part of LA we all may never be able to get homeowners insurance ever again

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It is definitely a precarious situation

But also keep in mind that even if it hit, say florida, it can still effect insurance here. One because a lot of these companies are based out of florida and Two and most importantly, the more claims a company is forced to pay out the more it effects their ability to write new business regardless of where. They can only take on so much exposure in relation to their re-insurance. Plus if companies continue to write they often times will have rate increases in every state they write in if there is a large scale claim incident

That being said, you are right. I am really not sure what could be done outside of federal government intervention if another major hurricane hit here. Louisiana Citizens cannot hold up to a mass claim event, especially with all the new business they had to take on in the last few months

Another hurricane and can I even sell my house if the buyers cannot find insurance because nobody sells it in LA anymore?

Several insurance companies have already left Louisiana due to the skullfrickery the past few years. I have Hartford they never gave me any problems. Doubt they'd like another claim though the next year.

I'd be more worried about selling my house and moving since I plan to do that soon.

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That's one of the first things you learn in weather school. Start off with big cities and then move the cone as it gets closer.

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Don't forget the weather machine that makes all these Hurricanes.

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there is some consistency in the euro and gfs ensembles taking this one to the western Florida coast (@tampa).

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You shut your whore mouth. The What if Models show that a cat 3 hitting Tampa would put 14' of water in the streets of downtown Tampa.