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Started By
Message
re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/20/22 at 6:58 pm to deuce985
Posted on 9/20/22 at 6:58 pm to deuce985
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to
show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical
depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward
Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean
Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to
show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical
depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward
Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean
Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:00 pm to sonoma8
Means "Day 5".
Westerly winds at the 500mb would mean Louisiana would likely be protected, steering it toward Florida like you're seeing in the models.
Westerly winds at the 500mb would mean Louisiana would likely be protected, steering it toward Florida like you're seeing in the models.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:00 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
what's this mean for louisiana
Who knows. It just means that the 18z GFS shifted towards the 12z ensemble mean.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:01 pm to rds dc
It's forming in the same place Ivan formed. I'm not saying it's going to be Hurricane Ivan but as a weather historian it's interesting to follow stuff like that.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:02 pm to The Boat
quote:
It's forming in the same place Ivan forme
Over water?
Think Ida formed there too
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:06 pm to fightin tigers
Ida didn’t organize until it was near Jamaica. Ivan formed in this unusual really low latitude spot.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:07 pm to The Boat
Man, 18Z GEFS is way east of its last runs. I see only one member pointing at Louisiana at 222hr. The majority of the stronger members cross Florida.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:07 pm to The Boat
quote:
but as a weather historian
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:08 pm to The Boat
quote:
Ivan formed in this unusual really low latitude spot.
Do we think it makes a drastic turn? Any chance this thing will stay low and run into the Yucatan?
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:09 pm to Ponchy Tiger
Probably going to be steered drastically east from cold fronts.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:09 pm to Oates Mustache
Hopefully this holds true, Im not tryin to be a dick, but we been prison raped enough
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:15 pm to rds dc
quote:
Some changes on the 18z GFS through D5 when compared to the 12z. The end result is that the system ends up moving westward faster than the 12z and brings the 18z more in line with the 12z Euro for the D5 location.
Decreasing the likelihood that Cuba plays a huge role, unless we start seeing an earlier or sharper turn to the North.
For a bit there on the 18z I thought it was going to completely shoot the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba. It might as well have on that run because the little interaction with Western Cuba did nothing.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:15 pm to sonoma8
quote:
Hopefully this holds true, Im not tryin to be a dick, but we been prison raped enough
Seriously. Prison rape me twice shame on you. Prison rape me thrice and I’m leaving the prison for good.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:17 pm to The Boat
Ivan was a hurricane over a 1000 miles before reaching the Windward islands. I get what you are saying though so low in latitude with ivan
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:18 pm to rds dc
God I hate these WCAB systems.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:20 pm to deuce985
Jay Grymes was a little nervous on todays weather report
Has me worried now
Has me worried now
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:21 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Over water? Think Ida formed there too
And Rita
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:22 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Jay Grymes was a little nervous on todays weather report Has me worried now
Huh? He matter of factly said he believes this will be an eastern Gulf storm.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:23 pm to Python
GEFS with mean (black line)
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:23 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Ivan was a hurricane over a 1000 miles before reaching the Windward islands. I get what you are saying though so low in latitude with ivan
Ivan wouldn't quit. It came back to the Gulf for seconds.
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