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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:17 pm to
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:17 pm to
That's nearly 3 feet at high tide.
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:17 pm to
Storm surge?
Cajun navy, assemble.
Posted by farad
Member since Dec 2013
12474 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:18 pm to
earth global map of wind
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 5:19 pm
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71006 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:18 pm to
quote:

Yea I was watching a clip of Tampa nightly news last night and the weather guy said something to the effect of “now look we are all hurricane veterans we know this drill.”

I hate to say it, but I’m not sure that’s true for most of the Tampa Bay Area. If this thing plays out as currently forecasted I don’t think anyone really know what is going to happen from a power and flooding perspective.





I have used that analogy with some of my neighbors who are somewhat not paying attention to this. They had a few close calls over the past 20 years but nothing like this forecast.

Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:20 pm to
Got damn. The GFS would only weaken it to a low end Cat 3 on top of Tampa.

Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33443 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:20 pm to
Low-Level Recon
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36196 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

Crews were out today cleaning storm drains and preparing them along with all the pipes that connect the ponds.

A competent local government? Huh, that’s novel.

In all seriousness though, if I was in Tampa I’d probably go ahead and take that vacation outta town this week.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48671 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

That's nearly 3 feet at high tide.

bad. very, very bad
Posted by meeple
Carcassonne
Member since May 2011
11148 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Bay St. Louis/Slidell are absolutely terrible too.

Slidell got the surge miles inland during Katrina. West eyewall passed right over which in turn tried to push all the water out of the lake through the Rigolets very fast. Result was like aiming a hose stream into a funnel. Nowhere for the water to go except over land.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15266 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:23 pm to
quote:

Tampa is the city that is the most vulnerable to surge in the country.


makes sense given how the inlet is situated.

the approach of the storm upon landfall is absolutely one of the worst for that as well.

water is going to get thrown all over the place.
Posted by LSUintheNW
At your mom’s house
Member since Aug 2009
36972 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

Yea I was watching a clip of Tampa nightly news last night and the weather guy said something to the effect of “now look we are all hurricane veterans we know this drill.”

I hate to say it, but I’m not sure that’s true for most of the Tampa Bay Area


Based off a couple of folks I know in the area I agree.

They were freaking out days ago. All theory, no practice.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14258 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

24+ hours of hurricane conditions


What's bad is you will have a high end Cat 3 or Low end 4 pushing water toward the coast, and - even if Ian starts to weaken as it gets closer to shoreline as models are showing - the slower forward motion with continued onshore wind will hold that 'surge' near the coast until it finally gets pushed in when Ian finally moves inland.
Posted by trussthetruzz
Member since Sep 2020
9334 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

The Boat

Said this wouldn’t go to tampa. Ouch
Posted by PTBob
Member since Nov 2010
7103 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:24 pm to
I’m at Disney. Originally was going to stay until Wednesday. Considering leaving tomorrow due to possible evacuation traffic. What would y’all do?
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15266 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:25 pm to
966mb on last dropsonde in the eye
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59237 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:25 pm to
traffic is going to suck really bad starting tomorrow morning I would get out ASAP
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
21115 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

What would y’all do?

Leave at 1 am, to try an avoid the heaviest congestion.
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:27 pm to
GTFO.

A friend is in Tampa. Her flight tomorrow just got canceled. She's getting in her car and driving. Smart move.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

I’m at Disney. Originally was going to stay until Wednesday. Considering leaving tomorrow due to possible evacuation traffic. What would y’all do?


Baw, you ain't leaving if you're trying to take I-75 on Wednesday. You better leave now or just decide to stay and wait it out.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

966mb on last dropsonde in the eye


O/U 962 mb before they leave?
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