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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/24/22 at 8:54 am to
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172716 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 8:54 am to
quote:

I'm no weather "douche", as you say.

Yeah you’re just a douche
Posted by jorconalx
alexandria
Member since Aug 2011
9837 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 8:54 am to
quote:

I'm outta here. The storm is gonna do what it's gonna do, and we as mere mortals have little or no control over that.


Didn’t you say our carbon emissions has influence in where these storms go?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67041 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 8:56 am to
Errbody is pounding on that dude a little bit.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
124277 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 8:59 am to
Dudes an actual real life communist. He deserves it.
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:02 am to
He makes me believe in reincarnation, because no one can become that stupid in one lifetime
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90087 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:03 am to
Recon not really finding a well defined circulation. Seems like it’s still tilted SW to NE.



I know we say this a lot at this point, but it holds true - without a well defined circulation you really shouldn’t put too much stock into the exact center of the track. A 25 mile shift to the east/west at initialization can compound track error over time.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41861 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:07 am to
dudes obviously trolling and had about 7 idiots qoute him

this place never fails to amuse
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 9:10 am
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
40866 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:08 am to
Looks like it fizzled out. Right after they named it. That’s embarrassing.
Posted by shallowminded
Member since Nov 2012
3036 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:10 am to
That would be nice!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90087 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:10 am to
Also looks like shear has really died down, which was forecasted. Outflow is expanding pretty well in all quadrants.



ETA: I have hell creating/posting gifs from Tropical Tidbits on mobile, so if this doesn’t animate in 5 seconds just scroll down.
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 9:12 am
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
124277 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:11 am to
He’s not trolling. That’s him.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
66740 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:12 am to
quote:

Are you sure your cedar is not a cypress?


yes, I think it is a Cypress. You are correct.


Where are you?


Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
43483 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:15 am to
quote:

For me it's all about the climate, not the weather, and how carbon emissions influence the paths and intensity of these storms.


Baw. Just no. All of the Green leaders meet every few months at an upscale vacation destination, to discuss the carbon and footprints, and green strategies. They come out of their meetings synced up, spewing the same doom and gloom, that they absolutely do not believe.

You will realize that they believe it when they stop each taking a private jet to the meetings/vacay spots. 100 attendees and 100 jets, all guzzling booze, and eating surf and turf like popcorn is proof enough for me, and someone as dumb as you. So, stand down on helping them spread that bullshite. K? Thanks.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67041 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Recon not really finding a well defined circulation. Seems like it’s still tilted SW to NE.


The more we see the convection being blown down shear to the SW like it is currently the more the Westward shifts will continue.

That's not saying we return back to the extreme western shift like the GFS showed the other day. We will continue to see ensemble guidance pull back from the Eastern most tracks and toward what the GFS is currently showing.

What this convection does over the next 24hrs or so will have a huge impact on the track and eventual landfall.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13680 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:20 am to
quote:

The more we see the convection being blown down shear to the SW like it is currently the more the Westward shifts will continue.



Been hearing the same thing from others.
When it gets north of Cuba though, I hear consistently that models taking it east north east.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
43483 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:20 am to
quote:

Where are you?


Polk county, 20 miles NE of Lakeland. It's aboot 80 miles to Bradenton. I have rope, pullies, come-a-longs. etc. We will get through this.

Posted by mightynine
Member since May 2006
1237 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:21 am to
If's anyone's interested, here's live coverage of Fiona's impact to Canada from their TWC, The Weather Network:
LINK
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
130649 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:23 am to
I'm glad you guys are posting information. I'm following this closely myself because of upcoming travel.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67041 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:24 am to
quote:

When it gets north of Cuba though, I hear consistently that models taking it east north east.

Yes, but in the short term the farther SW the storm finally starts to organize/strengthen dictates where it will cross Cuba. The launching point after Cuba is changed by how far West the system is before it starts to gain latitude and head toward Cuba.
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:26 am to
So past Cuba, this still a Florida storm?
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